Eastside Real Estate Sales, November 2009

The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in November 2009 ranged from a low of 13.5 % to a high of 23%, with an average 17% absorption rate. (The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month.)

November, 2009   2943 homes for sale      503 homes sold            17 %  odds of selling.

October, 2009        3240 homes for sale     644(now 561)  homes sold            19%(now 17%) odds of selling.*

November, 2008    3645 homes for sale    238 homes sold              6.5% odds of selling.

*Adjusted from previous month’s numbers to reflect the actual number of homes sold and closed. (see explanation below)  Each month some sales  fall apart and don’t close.  A lower number of home sales may be reported at a later date to show the actual number of sales that did close.

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November, 2008 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to November, 2009:

Several important trends this month:

• Home sales were up in all Seattle-Eastside cities.
• The number of homes for sale dropped to the lowest number, below 3000 homes, since March, 2007. This is a very important factor in our real estate market.  For most of the past two years, there’s been a large number of homes on the market.  In 2005 and 2006, when the real estate market was booming, we saw the numbers of homes for sale on the eastside in the 2000-3000 range.
  
• The median prices were UP slightly, by 2%.
  
• Home sales on Seattle’s Eastside:  up 50.5%, a terrific increase in sales, although a much smaller increase than in October, when the increase was over 100%.
  

Sales prices: UP 2.1%.

Number of homes for sale: down 22%.

Best odds of selling: For the second month in a row, the cities of Sammamish, Issaquah, Fall City, Snohomish, and North Bend, with 23% of the homes selling.

Worst odds of selling: Woodinville, North Kirkland, Bothell, Kenmore and Duvall, with 13% odds of homes selling.

Biggest increase in sales from last year: Kirkland, with 148% more home sales.

Last month, numbers like this were more common in all the eastside cities.  Not so this month with Sammamish, Issaquah, etc. coming in with the second highest increase at 77%.

Smallest increase in sales from last year: Again it’s the East Bellevue/Redmond area around Microsoft, with the smallest increase this month, only 9%.

Home sales in Bellevue and Redmond have been so strong in comparison to other eastside areas for so long. Now other Seattle-Eastside neighborhoods are catching up.

Decline in real estate sales: None on the eastside.

The peak of homes for sale in 2008: July,   4370 homes.

The peak of homes for sale in 2009: June,  3859 homes.

Rate of home sales that failed this month: 13%

Why home sales fail to close:

• This can be the result of inspections in which buyers and sellers do not agree, an appraisal that does not justify the sales price, lenders who do not package the loan properly or the great number of short sales that are out there.
• Short sales are sales in which the selling price for a property is less than the price owed to the bank, so the seller is “short.”  Many of these offers do not stay together because it often takes months for a short sale to get approved by the bank.  There’s no guarantee the bank will accept an offer.  I’ve heard only 4% of the short sales actually close in King County.  Since there’s a huge number on the market, if you’re someone willing to take a chance and accept that your offer may never be looked at or accepted, then a short sale may be a way to go. With the extension of the home buyer tax credit, home buyers have more time to go after short sales.  However, months may still be needed to get the short sale closed, if it is to close at all. Since most buyers truly want to purchase a home and close on it, I would recommend NOT making offers on short sales.  I’d also recommend reading as much as you can about short sales before attempting to make an offer on a short sale. This way you’ll be prepared if you choose to go the route of a short sale.
• My team and I are closing on a short sale this week.  The original offer was written in August.  There were two lienholders, two banks with mortgages on the property, which complicated the process.  Short sales can happen, but a buyer has to expect a rocky ride through the sales process, if the banks actually respond to the offer.  Be ready for most anything and most of all, be patient and not under any time constraints.