How Many Homes Sold on Seattle’s Eastside in December, 2011?

We have to go back before the bubble burst to February 2007 to find so few homes for sale on Seattle’s eastside!  There’s a healthy number of homes for sale on the eastside, 1897 at the close of December, so there are good choices for buyers.  With fewer homes on the market, it spurs the competition among buyers for the best homes and should help stabilize prices. In some neighborhoods, there aren’t any homes for sale right now.

Pricing is becoming more affordable for a new set of buyers who are coming to the market for the first time.  A mortgage payment that would have bought a home for $500,000 in 2008, would now cover the purchase of a home in the mid-$600,000s!

Here’s a snapshot of Seattle-Eastside real estate in December, 2011 compared to 2010:

•  24% fewer homes were on the market.
• The time it took to sell a home went from 129 days to 111 days this past December.
• Sales prices were 8% below the seller’s original asking price, while in 2010 they averaged 10% below the asking price.
• Eighteen percent of the homes for sale this December received offers and sold, while only 14% received offers in 2010.
• 338 homes sold in 2011, while in December 2010, 351 homes received offers.

The actual number of homes sold did not change much, which, surprisingly, is almost always the case.   The difference was not in the number of sales, but in the number of homes for sale.  There were 597 fewer homes for sale at the end of 2011 than 2010.  When there are fewer homes for sale, there are fewer “for sale” signs out in neighborhoods.  The “sold” signs also pop up a lot faster.

When the supply increases, there’s increased competition and homes take longer to sell.   Most people think homes are not selling because there are more real estate signs and they stay posted in yards for a longer time. This is not the case.  Homes are selling, but there’s just more competition which makes it feel as if the market is slower.

The real difference then is the supply, the number of homes for sale.  If there’s a smaller supply the market will seem faster because these homes will sell faster.  If there is a larger supply, there is more competition and the market will seem slower because it takes longer to sell a home.  In both markets, though, the number of homes that sell does not vary all that much.  It is the Supply that varies and changes what we think is happening in the real estate market.  The above chart confirms this as you can see the supply changes far more dramatically than the number of sales, which are shown at the bottom of each month.

In my next piece, I’ll  talk about how Seattle-eastside real estate should play out for the coming year.  Have a great 2012 and hope you are able to make it through this week’s snow.

Since real estate is neighborhood specific, if you’d like more information about your home, contact us, we’re here to help.

*The numbers are a result of the real estate sales activity that happened that particular month only.  In order to see a trend, it is important to look at a number of months together.  One month is only indicative of that particular month’s sales.

At the start of 2012, there are less than 8000 homes for sale in King County!  Compare this number to the start of the last three years:

• 2011:  10,008 homes for sale
• 2010:    9726 homes for sale
• 2009:  11,363 homes for sale

The old law of supply and demand is at work here and is starting to favor sellers more than it has for years.  There’s a 3.6 months supply of homes for sale in King County.  This means there’s a balanced market between buyers and sellers with the market tipping towards the sellers.  (Less than 3 months of inventory indicates a sellers market.)

On Seattle’s Eastside, the market is looking really strong, particularly around the Microsoft area of East Bellevue and Redmond.  The number of homes for sale has dropped dramatically.

What should buyers and sellers expect in the first quarter of 2012 on Seattle’s eastside?

Fabulous interest rates.

A more positive real estate market.

The market will continue to be affected by short sales and foreclosures.

Home prices are not up nor will they go up.  There is no indication on the immediate horizon that indicates anything about price increases.  On the flip side, the lack of supply of homes for sale helps to stabilize the market and prices.  Fewer homes means more competition, which helps pricing.

The real estate market will vary neighborhood by neighborhood.  One size does not fit all.

Location matters.  Homes close to economic centers that offer a good commute, good schools, and good amenities will be more in demand.

Condition matters.  Homes should go on the market in the best possible condition to command the best price.

Some home sales will be good deals depending on the available competition, the condition of the home, and the seller’s motivation.

Some homes will sell for full price, in a matter of days, and with multiple offers This, too, will depend on the same factors mentioned in my previous statement.

It is important to know your area.  Buyers and sellers should both be aware of the competition, pricing, and condition of nearby homes to determine the value of a specific home.

Homes need to be priced right or they will not sell.  I heard a seller say the other day, “I’m not going to give away the farm.”  If you, as a home seller, have far more money into your home than it’s worth and you have no interest or are financially unable to price your home to meet the market, then this is not be the time to sell your home.

Gee, it sounds like a normal real estate market to me!  What do you see happening in your market place?

If you lived in Kirkland and had your home for sale last month, the odds of it selling in November were 31%, the strongest absorption rate to be found on the eastside.*  The homes in East Bellevue and Redmond areas around Microsoft had a 29% chance of selling.  Chances of selling ranged from 11-22.5% in the other eastside cities.

Homes in East Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft sold the fastest on Seattle’s eastside.  On average, homes there sold in 2 months.   Market time for the other eastside cities, ranged from 3 to 4 months.

This is reasonable market time, indicating a balanced market between buyers and sellers.  A balanced market means there’s a more normal market.  Some homes sold quickly and others stayed on the market for a long time.   Some homes sold for full price and others sold at steep discounts.

The November Real Estate Map Showing a More Balanced Market Between Buyers and Sellers

The cities below are grouped together to follow our MLS areas (multiple listing service).  This is how our statistics are reported.

How was real estate market in your Seattle-eastside city in November, 2011?

1. Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 31%.*

Median price decreased  (y-o-y)** from $530,000 to $477,000.

188 homes were for sale.

A total of 58 homes sold.

Days on Market:  105

2. Redmond/East Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 29%.

Median sales price decreased to $418,000 from $527,000.

163 homes were for sale

A total of 48 homes sold.

Days on the market: 60

3. South Bellevue/Issaquah

The odds of selling a home were 22.5%.

Median price increased from $538,000 to $550,000.

267 homes were for sale.

A total of 60 homes sold.

Days on market: 98

4. Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation

The odds of selling a home were 22%

Median pricing decreased from $540,000 to $530,000.

247 homes were for sale.

A total of 54 homes sold.

Days on Market: 104

4. (tie) Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 22%.

Median price was down from $451,000 to $394,000.

481 homes were for sale.

A total of 105 homes sold.

Days on Market: 114

5. The plateau:  Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City

The odds of selling a home were 18%.

Median sales price decreased from $460,000 to $441,000.

There were 580 homes for sale.

A total of 104 homes sold.

Days on the market: 119

6. West Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 11%.

Median pricing decreased to $950,000 from $1,035,000.

127 homes were for sale.

A total of 14 homes sold.

Days on Market: 91

How Many Homes Sold on Seattle's Eastside in November, 2011?

If you read the news about Seattle real estate, it could make you crazy!  It’s hard to determine what’s true and what is hype.  There’s some tough news that dominates and then there is some news that is actually good.  You know how it is, bad news always travels faster than good news, no matter what the topic.  Our real estate news is a mixed bag, but it’s good to know it’s not all bad news.   So let’s deal with the “bad” news first, since that seems to be most people’s hot button. And, by the way, if you read beyond the headlines, it may not be as bad as it seems.

True, our prices are down.  That’s the elephant in the room.  The “king” of the bad news.  There is no getting around it.  But if you look at the pricing issue more closely, it’s not as dire as it seems.  Take out the distressed sales and prices for individual home sellers are down, but not as much.

• Bank-owned houses accounted for 20 percent of all King County sales in November, up from 14 percent a year earlier. Those houses sold for a median price of $177,000, down 18 percent from $216,000 in November 2010.

• The median price of short-sales houses dropped 17 percent, from $305,000 to $260,000.

• But other, “nondistressed” sales saw a much smaller price decline — 2.5 percent, from $399,000 to $389,000.*

Prices are down, but depending on the area, not as badly as one would think.  The eastside is one of the areas where it is not as bad because people are still moving here for jobs and buying homes.  If you look at the chart above, over 400 homes have sold on Seattle’s eastside each month this year.  This November saw higher sales  than last November.

The good news for Seattle-eastside real estate:

•  24% fewer homes were on the market in November this year than in 2010.
• The time it takes to sell a home went from 106 days last November to 60 days this November.
• Sales prices on average were just 4% below the seller’s original asking price this year, while last year they averaged 7% below the asking price.
• Twenty-nine percent of the homes for sale this past November received offers and sold, while only 19% received offers in 2010
• There’s no getting around that, but with less homes on the market, it spurs the competition among buyers for the best homes.
• Pricing is becoming more affordable for a new set of buyers who are coming to the market for the first time.

Truthfully, the actual number of homes sold did not change all that much.  Last year 435 homes sold.  This year 458 sold.  The difference?  There was much more competition last year because there were 342 more homes on the market.

So remember,  look at all the facts, not just the headlines when talking about real estate.  Review the data that applies to your specific neighborhood to make a decision about the market.

What’s happening in your neighborhood?  Is there any good news mixed in with all the negativity about the real estate market?

*The numbers are a result of the real estate sales activity that happened that particular month only.  In order to see a trend, it is important to look at a number of months together.  One month is only indicative of that particular month’s sales.

Here on the eastside, the market is doing well for the good homes, but not for all homes.  These are the homes that are the best of the competition in terms of price, condition, style, floor plan and location.

One reason why the good homes are selling with multiple offers:

Less than 9000 properties are for sale in King County, for the first time in years.  Supply is dwindling fast.  If you compare the number of homes for sale with this time last year,  3000 fewer homes are on the market.   As the year heads to a close, more sellers will take their homes off the market. 

I expect to see December and January be good markets for sellers because of the decrease in competition.  Quality homes will go fast, and possibly with multiple offers.

Does this mean it’s a bad market for buyers?  No, there are still a lot of good homes for sale.  Plus, it’s the most affordable market we’ve had in the Seattle area 17 years.  With the lower interest rates, a mortgage is starting to rival rental costs.

So if you snooze, you can lose.  Do you homework.  Determine what’s most important to you.  Is it the location, is it the good floor plan or a combination of many factors?  Know the prices of homes in the area. Learn what’s selling and for what price.  Know your wants and needs, study the market by visiting homes, and learn what sells well in the area.

If you do all these things.  You won’t snooze and lose.  You’ll know which homes work best for you and which are the best values.  You can then jump in and buy a good home and not lose.

Seattle Eastside Real Estate Sales-October, 2011

Yes, Virginia, there was a decline in median pricing on Seattle’s eastside in October. The Seattle media got everyone a little nervous about real estate when it stated there had been a 15% y-o-y price drop in King County real estate prices from October of 2010 to 2011.  I talked with several clients who were speaking doom and gloom about the eastside real estate market based on the news stories.   I suggested they look at the true numbers for the eastside, not the entire county.  The article discussed all of King County, which includes areas that are not doing as well as the eastside.  Seattle and the eastside cities, such as Bellevue, Kirkland, and Redmond, are the shining stars of King County real estate.  If you look near the bottom of the article, it states the decline in eastside real estate prices measured in the single digits, not 15%.

The decline on the eastside  depends on what you were looking at when comparing the numbers.  Median sales pricing declined by 9% from last year, but the average sold prices increased from $602.000 to $619,000.  It’s more of a mixed bag, although no home owner likes to see any sort of a decline.

Why the decline in median sales pricing? Here are some possible reasons:

• Jumbo loan rates have gone up, limiting the number of buyers who can buy at the higher end of the market.
• Distressed sales take up a large portion of the home sales all over the county.  Distressed sales, short sales and foreclosures, usually sell for less than market value, thus causing the median pricing to drop.
• Lastly, the numbers you see here are a result of the real estate sales activity that happened that particular month only.  In order to see a trend, it is important to look at a number of months together.  One month is only indicative of that particular month’s sales.

Remember real estate is hyperlocal and North King and South King County are different real estate markets than Seattle’s eastside.  In one of my next posts, I’ll look at the eastside real estate market even more closely and show the hottest and coolest selling areas.

Now that we have that issue of the decline in median pricing examined more closely, let’s take a look at what happened with eastside real estate in October.  There were 24% fewer homes on the market this October than last and 22% more homes sold than in 2010.  There were also 8% fewer homes on the market than in September of this year.  Sales increased by 22% from last year and by 11% from September of this year.

Most home sold within 97 days and for about 92% of the original asking price.  Sellers had a 23% chance of getting their homes sold last month.  These are strong numbers, much stronger than October of 2010.

I’ll be watching the sales trend over the next couple of months.  I expect to see fewer homes on the market and fewer sales as we approach the holidays.  But will median pricing decline?  What do you think?

My last post focused on distressed sales in the counties around Seattle, a huge area.  This post focuses on the eastside cities across Lake Washington from Seattle.

The hardest hit area for distressed property sales on Seattle’s eastside is what we Realtors call area 600 (see bottom of the chart above) which encompasses north Kirkland, Juanita, Duvall, Woodinville, Bothell, and Kenmore.  Although all of these communities are fairly close to the eastside employment centers,  the commute can be longer for many people.  Parts of Woodinville and Duvall are still fairly rural in nature.  Rural areas around Seattle have been hit harder with the decline in the real estate market.  The higher number of distressed sales in these areas fits this model.  More people want to live closer to work these days.

The area with the fewest number of distressed home sales was Mercer Island (area 510).  Mercer Island is also one of the more expensive eastside cities.  Situated between the eastside communities and downtown Seattle, it’s a desirable place to live.  It’s a bedroom community located near the top economic centers with top notch schools and an easy commute to Seattle and the eastside.

Kirkland (area 560) is a very desirable location because it has good highway access, is close to jobs, and has a good school system.  But the city has the second highest rate of distressed sales, which is surprising.   The community encompasses a variety of housing styles and prices.from multi-million dollar waterfront homes to starter homes in the $200,000+ range.

The other eastside cities of Bellevue, Sammamish, Issaquah, and the closer in neighborhoods of Redmond, near Microsoft, had distressed sales ranging from 16-19% of the total real estate sales in the third quarter of 2011.

The theme here as in the last post is close-in locations near jobs is the better place to be.  The eastside cities that fit this bill had the least amount of distressed sales.

Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Sales through September, 2011

Seattle’s eastside real estate market was very steady in September, 2011.   It’s not dramatic with the highs and lows of the recent past, which is refreshing, plus eastside real estate sales are moving and moving well.  It looks as if the peak of real estate sales for the year was back in May, when 24% of the available homes got offers.  However, in September overall sales dropped only slightly, to 21%.  The sales average of 21% means out of the 2713 homes for sale, 563 sold.

Real estate sales on the eastside improved dramatically when compared to last year.  This means we’re experiencing a more normal, realistic market in 2011 than in 2010.  There are fewer homes on the market and 33% more homes sold on the eastside this September when compared to last year.  Our less volatile real estate market is our new normal and really is not bad at all!

On average, most homes were on the market for 90 days before they sold.  Homes sold within 93% of the original asking price with the median sales price for the eastside at $526,000.

Seattle-eastside real estate sales through August, 2011

The Seattle-eastside real estate market is only getting better and better!  August home sales beat July and were way ahead of last August.  This August was one of the best real estate markets in years!

Real estate sales were hopping.  Thirty-three percent more homes received accepted offers this August than August of 2010.  Almost 20% fewer homes were on the market, so less supply + more demand equaled more sales. In August, 22% of the homes for sale on Seattle’s eastside got offers.  This means out of the 2811 homes for sale, 609 homes sold.  On average, most homes sold within 85 days.

In King County, the number of homes for sale dropped below 10,000 for the first time since last May.  Here on the eastside, we’re also seeing the lowest number of homes for sale.   More than likely, the peak number of homes for sale was 2879 back in June.

Last month I questioned whether the surge in real estate sales would continue because of the volatility in the stock market.  With August sales numbers, we’re seeing the most robust market we’ve seen in a long time.  The stock market didn’t put a damper on eastside home sales.

Was your market affected by the stock market “roller coaster?”