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Will There Be Any Condos to Buy on Seattle’s Eastside in 2013?
Will there be any condos available to buy on Seattle's eastside in 2013? If we look at the chart, it sure looks like the number of available condos could disappear! Right now, if no more condos were to come on the market, it would take less than 2 months to sell those currently available. We really expect condos to be on the market next year, but it's clear we'll start out with little for sale.
The number of condos for sale in Bellevue, Kirkland, Issaquah, Redmond, Sammamish and other eastside cities has been cut in half since March of this year. That's a huge drop in a short amount of time.
Not as many condos sold this past month when compared to other months of this year. However, because the number of condos for sale is so small, 56% of the condos on the market sold last month.
Median pricing has increased from last year by $20,000 to $242,000.
We do expect the number of condos for sale to stay low in 2013 as many are still hoping to recover some of the value of their condos before making a move.
Stay tuned to the first of the year, which is just around the corner. We'll do a wrapup of this year's condo sales on Seattle's eastside.
Have a great New Year!
Many Homes on Seattle’s Eastside Are Selling For Over Full Price!
In the third quarter of 2012, almost 30% of the homes that sold in the cities of Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, Sammamish, Woodinville, Issaquah sold for over full price! The demand by buyers for homes and the lack of inventory is creating this huge uptick in competition for a home. When more buyers are competing for the same house, the offers often have to be for more than full price to stand out from the competition. Many homes are now getting multiple offers and many, almost a third, are now selling for more than the asking price.
We've recently sold several listings in which the selling price was over $20,000 more than the asking price! In one instance, the home had come on the market only hours before. The buyers didn't want to take the risk that another offer would be written before the seller had time to respond, so they offered over full price. Another home sold within 48 hours. Three buyers made offers for that home.
As you can see in the above chart, the homes that sell for more than full price, sell for about 3% above the asking price, with the range from just a hair over asking price all the way to 22.5% above the asking price!
Twenty-one percent of the homes sold for full price. This means 51% of the homes on the eastside sold for full price or more!
The homes that sold above full price only lasted on the market, on average,16 days. Homes that sold for full price were on the market for about a month.
But what about the other 49%? (Not to be confused with the 47% that was talked about in the election)
Why did half the homes sell for less than full price if the market is so hot? More than likely, one of these reasons was the cause:
- Location
- Pricing
- Condition
- Marketing
- Competition
You can't change the location or the fact that there is competition for a particular home. But when selling a home, you need to maximize your buyer attraction by pricing your home well, having it in stellar condition, and presenting it well to the buyers through fabulous marketing.
If you have questions about how to have your home be one of the 51% that sells for full price or more, feel free to contact us!
On September 29th, Go to Your Seattle Eastside Supermarket and Donate Food to The Eastside Month of Concern for the Hungry
Please think about shopping and donating to the drive on September 29th all over the eastside at supermarkets in Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, Issaquah, Woodinville and Sammamish. The Eastside Month of Concern for the Hungry campaign to fill Seattle-Eastside food bank shelves is happening this weekend. Many supermarkets all over the eastside will have volunteers ready and waiting to pick up food and cash donations for such Eastside institutions as Hopelink, the Emergency Feeding Network, the Issaquah Foodbank, and The Mercer Island Foodbank. Food bank shelves are a little barer this time of year and the need for food on the eastside has only increased over the last few years.
Part of living in a home in a neighborhood is part of being in a community. Help your community out by donating even a little to those who are less fortunate.
Happy shopping!
August Real Estate Keeps Moving on Seattle’s Eastside
How was the real estate market on Seattle's eastside in August?
The market has been" steady as she goes!" This is a very good thing. We are experiencing a great real estate market that has followed a trend over the last few months and is far better than last year at this time.
The number of homes for sale has hardly changed at all. Ok, there were 8 fewer homes for sale in August, but that's just a drop in the bucket. And as we mentioned in a recent, the exact same number of homes were for sale in both June and July!
Did the number of homes for sale increase?
No, It hardly changed, but it did decline slightly. This had little impact on the market.
Did the number of sales increase?
Yes, by 6%. So we had about the same number of homes for sale, but more homes sold in August. This sounds good to me.
Did prices continue to increase?
Yes, they have continued to increase, but only slightly. Median pricing in July was $512,000. This August it's $520,000. Last August median pricing for the eastside was $506,000.
This is the third month in a row that median pricing has been up for the year. Again, this is a great trend!
The Seattle Times gave a very positive picture of the entire King County real estate market, which includes Seattle and the eastside cities of Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, Issaquah, Woodinville, and more. Glenn Crellin of UW's Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies said:
But for now, he added, the local market looks healthy. Rising prices are giving more formerly "underwater" homeowners — who once owed lenders more than their homes were worth — equity in their houses again, he said.
How did this past August compare to August of 2011?
- 38% of the available homes sold this past August, 20% sold in August, 2011.
- Homes sold in 63 days, which is down from 85 days in August, 2011. Homes are selling more quickly.
- Last year median pricing in August was at $506,000. This year, median pricing was $520,000.
- Homes sold within 4% of the original asking price. Last year homes sold within 7% of the asking price.
Is the Seattle eastside market strong? Yes, particularly compared to last year when there were almost 1000 more homes for sale! Add that to the fact that almost 1/3 more homes sold this past August than in 2011!
How does all this information impact you, if you're a seller?
Know how quickly homes in your area are selling. If your home is on the market for longer than the competition, there's a good chance your home is overpriced.
We recently spoke with a seller and told him the last few homes in his area in his price range sold in 2, 5, and 11 days. If his home is on the market for about 10-12 days with no offers, then his home will be overpriced for the market. Pricing a home correctly is the most important thing you can do as a seller. The next most important thing to do is hire someone who will guarantee you"ll have professional photography. Your home will have about 3 seconds to grab a buyer's attention on the internet, so make that 3 seconds work for you. If your home has lousy photos, you could potentially lose a good buyer. Make sure your home is decluttered, staged with your own furniture and good staging advice or with staged with the stager's furniture. As a seller, you're painting a picture for the buyer of how "cool" and wonderful it would be to live in your home, so set the stage, literally!
How does this information impact you as a buyer?
There is enough turnover in the supply each month for buyers to learn what values are in the marketplace. Find out what's available in your price range in your areas so you'll be prepared when the right home comes up. In some areas, multiple offers are the norm. In others, there may be some flexibility in the price. But if it is a well priced home that shows beautifully, expect it to sell quickly and for close to, if not, full price.
If you'd like more information specific to your home, don't hesitate to contact us.
Did July’s Real Estate Prices Really Go Up By 7% on Seattle’s Eastside?
The Seattle media had screaming headlines recently about the 7% increase in King County real estate prices this July when compared to last July. Were the newspaper headlines right? As I've mentioned before, yes and no.
What did the media get correct when they said prices had gone up from July, 2011 to 2012?
They were only comparing the sales from July, 2011 to July, 2012. The median price was based on the sales that happened only in those two months. This could mean more expensive homes sold in 2012 than in 2011 or it could mean prices were higher. It is hard to know based on this one month. A snapshot of one month's real estate sales does not make a trend. It only shows how sales compared for those two months, so the Seattle Times was correct in stating the prices had gone up in from July, 2011 to 2012 by 7%. However, this is not the full picture.
How can you more accurately tell if real estate prices are going up, down or staying the same?
It's important to look at a pattern for a period of time, such as you can see in the chart above.
What does the chart show?
The chart is a compilation of all the home sales on the eastside, including such cities as Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, Woodinville, Sammamish, Issaquah and more. The NWMLS (Northwest Multiple Listing Areas) for these eastside cities are represented by area numbers 500-600 displayed at the top of the chart.
Windermere Real Estate compiled the data from each month and developed this chart to show median pricing for the past 5 years. If you look at the bottom of the chart, you'll see the years 2008-2012. Each blue bar above the years represents a month during each of the years. The red line going across the chart shows the median price point for each year. It was highest in 2008, when the median pricing for the year stood at $623,733 and had gone down consistently through the end of 2011, when the median pricing for the eastside stood at $502,784.
This year the chart shows the median pricing is creeping up, but here on the eastside and in other parts of King County, it's not up by 7%, but by about 3% so far for the year. The median for this year is at $518,309.
This is a much more accurate picture of real estate values on the eastside, not just a measure of one month's sales. Are you seeing similar trends in your area?
If you have questions about the value of your home, please feel free to contact us and we can take a closer look at the data for your home.
Real Estate Sales in Bellevue, Kirkland, and Redmond, Etc Are Hot!
Red is busting out all over the map of Seattle Real Estate Sales! Red means it’s a sellers market in which homes, on average, are selling in less than 3 months! The numbers are really strong in all of the eastside cities, but top sales go to the 80% sales rate in Redmond and East Bellevue near Microsoft last month! Incredible odds! In every other area on the eastside over 40% of the homes sold.
Closed sales, the sales in which the new buyer now owns the house, are showing lower sales numbers because the homes that closed in March actually got offers in January or February. Expect the number of sales for each of the coming months to jump higher because March home sales will be closing in April and May.. Market time will continue to decrease as this faster sales market continues.
Pricing has still been dropping as you can see below, but should become more stable as the prices from these March sales becomes public. Some areas actually showed an increase in pricing, but remember, it is a representation of the sales that sold in March only.
Multiple offers, a shortage of homes, a huge percentage of homes selling in a short amount of time are all the buzz words for the Seattle eastside real estate market.
The cities below are reported together to follow our MLS areas (multiple listing service) information.
1. Redmond/East Bellevue
The odds of selling a home were 80%
Median sales price decreased from $476,000 to $427,000 (y-o-y)**
95 homes were for sale
A total of 76 homes sold
Days on the market: 135
2. Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 57%
Median sales price decreased from $570,000 to $469,000
137 homes were for sale
A total of 53 homes sold
Days on Market: 83
3. West Bellevue
The odds of selling a home were 46%.
Median sales price increased from $888,000 to $1,000,000
117 homes were for sale
A total of 54 homes sold
Days on Market: 70
4. The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 44%
Median sales price decreased from $505,000 to $462,000
There were 436 homes for sale
A total of 193 homes sold
Days on the market: 127
4. (tie) South Bellevue/Issaquah
The odds of selling a home were 44%
Median price increased from $510,000 to $560,000
225 homes were for sale
A total of 98 homes sold
Days on market: 99
5. Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 43%
Median sales price increased from $411,000 to $472,000
193 homes were for sale
A total of 83 homes sold
Days on Market: 100
6. Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 42%
Median sales price decreased from $423,000 to $369,000
365 homes were for sale
A total of 151 homes sold
Days on Market: 100
If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact either Brooks or me.
*(The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)
** (y-o-y) median pricing is comparing year over year numbers.
Negative Headlines for Seattle Real Estate?
I thought we were finally past the negative headlines in Seattle real estate, but apparently not. Both The Seattle Times and the PI had articles about the decline in prices. The articles take a look at the latest Case-Shiller Index for January, 2012, which shows closings for December of 2011. The offers for the homes sold in December, 2011 were written a couple of months earlier than December, so the latest Case-Shiller report examines data that is 3-5 months old. The focus in these articles is the decline in real estate prices. There was a small decline in Seattle area real estate prices from January, 2011 to January, 2012.
Is this an accurate picture of today’s local real estate?
Besides the fact that the Case-Shiller report is examining older data, we have to remember to look at pricing over a 3-6 month period to see a real trend and in a very local real estate market. When you examine trends in a more localized area, you see true numbers. The numbers that affect you. Case-Shiller examines 20 metropolitan areas, including the Seattle area. However, this includes not only Seattle, but the surrounding counties: Snohomish, Pierce, and King. The counties are very different real estate animals. Aubrey Cohen said in the PI:
Pierce and Snohomish counties are weaker than King County, dragging down statistics for the metro area.
Within counties, real estate markets are different. In King County, the south is very different from the east. In East King County, in such cities such as Bellevue and Redmond or Sammamish, there are differences. Looking at the Seattle and the surrounding counties does not give the true picture of what is happening in Kirkland, Woodinville or Duvall. Case-Shiller does not tell the local story , the local real estate story that affects you and your home.
What’s really happening with real estate on Seattle’s eastside?
As March comes to a close, we’re in a “hot” market in Seattle and on the eastside in Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, and Issaquah. etc. This week in all of King County, there are 6,802 properties for sale. Last year at this time, 10,772 properties were for sale. The eastside is a reflection of these numbers. There is a small supply of available properties. Every day the NWMLS, Northwest Multiple Listing Service, tallies up the number of new listings and sales. On most days, pending sales outpace new listings by about one-third. Many homes are receiving multiple offers, which means their prices are, more often than, not remaining stable. There’s too much demand for housing and not enough houses for sale.
The reality is prices will not go up by much, but they also will not go down on the eastside in most areas with this lack of supply and high demand for homes. Let’s not go back to the past. Let’s focus on the present as much as we can. The Eastside real estate market is hot!
That should be the headline for today’s real estate news.
A Booming Real Estate Market in Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond And Other Eastside Cities in February, 2012
The February Real Estate Map shows a strong sellers market.
Multiple offers, low supply of homes, a huge percentage of homes selling in a short amount of time, all are happening in the eastside communities of Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, Issaquah, Woodinville, and Bothell. This is an exciting trend that we expect will continue as long as people feel good about the economy, Seattle companies are hiring and there is this shortage of homes for sale. The national press is jumping on the bandwagon and reporting the uptick in the real estate market. However, I believe this is not happening everywhere. We are among the fortunate areas in the country that are experiencing this positive real estate market.
Almost half of all the homes for sale in Kirkland and Redmond sold this past month! That’s astonishing odds. The cities below are grouped together to follow our MLS areas (multiple listing service). This is how our statistics are reported.
1. Redmond/East Bellevue
The odds of selling a home were 49%
Median sales price decreased from $435,000 to $400,000 (y-o-y)**
113 homes were for sale
A total of 35 homes sold
Days on the market: 84
2. Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 48%
Median sales price decreased from $457,000 to $442,000
140 homes were for sale
A total of 38 homes sold
Days on Market: 98
3. The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 40%
Median sales price decreased from $514,000 to $442,000
There were 428 homes for sale
A total of 100 homes sold
Days on the market: 121
4. South Bellevue/Issaquah
The odds of selling a home were 33%
Median price decreased from $580,000 to $525,000
239 homes were for sale
A total of 43 homes sold
Days on market: 118
5. Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 32%
Median sales price decreased from $366,000 to $360,000
368 homes were for sale
A total of 105 homes sold
Days on Market: 115
6. West Bellevue
The odds of selling a home were 20%.
Median sales price increased from $840,000 to $960,000
123 homes were for sale
A total of 15 homes sold
Days on Market: 133
7. Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 4%
Median sales price increased from $382,000 to $515,000
205 homes were for sale
A total of 29 homes sold
Days on Market: 152
If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact either Brooks or me.
*(The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)
** (y-o-y) median pricing is comparing year over year numbers.
How Was The Real Estate Market In Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, and Other Eastside Cities At The Start of 2012?
What a difference a month makes! The January Real Estate Map shows a “Seller’s Advantage” in our market!
There’s a lot of “red” on the above Seattle area real estate map! There’s more “red” than we’ve seen in years, and I mean years. What does the “red” mean? It means it’s a seller’s market. The homes that are in the “red” areas sell in less than 3 months on average. In January, most of the eastside was a seller’s market. Mercer Island, West Bellevue, and Kirkland did not quite reach the threshold of a seller’s market, but Kirkland was almost there. The real estate markets in these areas were more evenly balanced between the buyers and sellers as homes sold on average within 3-6 months.
This real estate market is pretty exciting to see after the tough markets of the last few years. But what this really means is that we have a more normal market on Seattle’s eastside. The good homes that are priced right and show well are the homes that are selling quickly and bringing the average market time down. There are and still will be homes that aren’t priced well or don’t show well which will sit on the market and take longer to sell.
The chance of a home selling in the different eastside cities ranged from 15-30%. West Bellevue had the fewest sales when compared to the number of available homes, while the plateau cities of Sammamish, North Bend, and Fall City saw almost a third of the homes sell in one month!
But King County is a big place, and the real-estate market isn’t the same in SeaTac as it is in Sammamish.
A closer look at the statistics reveals significant variations from neighborhood to neighborhood.
It’s good to see the Times recognizing the neighborhood differences, since too many times the media publishes data, which covers too broad an area. This does not give an accurate picture of the real estate data.
How was real estate market in your Seattle-Eastside city in January, 2012?
1. The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 30%
Median sales price decreased from $496,000 to $465,000 (y-o-y)**
There were 469 homes for sale
A total of 86 homes sold
Days on the market: 123
2. South Bellevue/Issaquah
The odds of selling a home were 28%
Median price decreased from $575,000 to $484,000
226 homes were for sale
A total of 35 homes sold
Days on market: 90
3. Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 27%
Median sales price decreased from $534,000 to $522,000
155 homes were for sale
A total of 34 homes sold
Days on Market: 62
4. Redmond/East Bellevue
The odds of selling a home were 26%
Median sales price increased from $380,000 to $460,000
125 homes were for sale
A total of 32 homes sold
Days on the market: 94
5. Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 25%
Median sales price decreased from $390,000 to $344,000
387 homes were for sale
A total of 64 homes sold
Days on Market: 115
6. Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 21%
Median sales price decreased from $522,000 to $483,000
193 homes were for sale
A total of 30 homes sold
Days on Market: 112
5. West Bellevue
The odds of selling a home were 15%.
Median sales price increased from $650,000 to $1,230,000
118 homes were for sale
A total of 18 homes sold
Days on Market: 86
If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact either Brooks or me.
*(The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)
** (y-o-y) median pricing is comparing year over year numbers.
My 2009 Predictions for 2012 Seattle Area Real Estate
Predictions for 2012 Seattle-Eastside Real Estate?
I’d just written a post with predictions for this year’s real estate market, when I happened to come across this post from 2 1/2 years ago with positive predictions about the 2012 Bellevue/Eastside real estate market.
Looking at the reprinted post below, how much looks like it could be true for 2012?
Rebound in Seattle/Eastside real estate? Wait until 2012.
A rebound in Seattle real estate? Yes, but not just yet, and it will probably be a small rebound, IMHO. Both Yahoo, via the Plugged in Finance blog and Businessweek had articles projecting a faster return to a more positive real estate market for Seattle than for many other parts of the country. Seattle ended up on the top 10 real estate rebound lists on both Yahoo and Businessweek.
Why a rebound in Seattle? Seattle’s chances are among the best in the country and for the same reasons the Seattle/Eastside area was so strong for most of the last two decades. It’s our economy and our geography.
First, the geography. (Bear with me for this brief geography lesson. This brings me back to my roots as a social studies teacher who loves geography.) There’s a lot of empty space east of Seattle, Bellevue and other parts of King County. This is where the foothills of the Cascade Mountain range begins. It looks like there’s lots of open space out there, and there is, but it gets pretty steep! It’s certainly not conducive to building a home. Couple this with strict land use regulations, protecting salmon streams as an example, and even less land is available for development. It’s double-edged sword. We need to maintain a healthy balance between people and nature, to maintain our wildlife, our trees, and our quality of life. But the natural elements of the Seattle area, Puget Sound, Lake Washington, and the Cascade Mountains do provide a challenge to our growth. Less land to develop=higher prices, but it won’t happen for a few years and increases should still be modest.
The economy in the Seattle area is hurting like the rest of the country. But there’s a strong economic base that will re-emerge as things start to turn around. The old stand-bys, Microsoft, Starbucks, and Boeing are struggling now, but should bounce back.
Another thing to watch is the number of homes for sale, the housing inventory. We’re still at higher numbers, but things are starting to balance out. If you look at the maps, you’ll see the Seattle real estate market of 2009 is far more balanced than the Seattle real estate market of 2008. (A balance market is when the number of homes for sale in an area is less than a 6 months supply. Yellow on the attached maps indicates a balanced market in the area.
Builders are NOT buying land right now. Over the years, builders would have huge amounts of land tied up for future building. This is no longer the case. It can take a couple of years to develop a site and to start building homes. With less land available for building and less land owned by builders and ready to be built out, existing homes will be more in demand in the future.
On yesterday’s “Morning Edition” on NPR Station, KPLU, John Maynard interviewed Richard Hagar about another issue, the influx of new people moving to Washington State, the majority of whom are moving to King County. Some of these people rent and some buy condos and homes. The in-migration of people will only help our real estate and economy over time.
The year 2012 seems like a long way off, but we’re halfway through 2009. It’s around a really long corner and it’s not going to be an easy “walk” to get there.
Now we’re at the end of the first month of 2012, what’s happening with Seattle-Eastside Real Estate? There are differences from what I wrote in 2009 that actually bode well for the Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, Sammamish, etc areas:
Builders are buying land now. We have a client who was approached by no less than 4 builders last year when his property was not even listed for sale. Within the same week, he received several builder solicitations. He’s not the only homeowner with land who has been approached. Builders are actually looking to beef up their inventory of land so they can build again.
The number of homes on the market has reached the lowest level since February, 2007. In all of King County there are approximately 7500 homes and condos for sale.
The geography hasn’t changed and I believe it will take millions of years before it does and the economy is still performing at a far better pace in the Seattle area than in other parts of the country. Amazon, Microsoft, and other companies are hiring.
What does your crystal ball say?
