Seattle Eastside Condo Sales Through December, 2011

Seattle Eastside condo inventory dipped to 2011′s lowest point in December, 2011.   The year began and ended with under 1000 condos for sale.

The number of available eastside condos peaked in June with well over 1100 condos for sale.    The peak was never really much of a peak when we look at the peak numbers in previous years.  In the past, the number of condos could easily top out at 1500 for sale.  In  October 2010, there were 1375 condos for sale, and that was not even the peak month for 2010.

As most people know, condos have been hit harder than single family homes by the economic downturn.  Prices are down quite a bit, so it’s good to see 2011 end with fewer condos for sale on the eastside.  There’s a big drop in value for condos, about 18% for the year, but the reality is the lower prices are helping to move some of the supply.

With fewer condos for sale and a fresh start with the new year, I expect to see condos sell well.   The economy is doing better locally with Boeing, Amazon, Microsoft, and others in a hiring mode. Prices will continue to stay low, but with the huge decline in the number of properties for sale, prices should remain stable this year.

There were 822 condos for sale in December, with 138 of them receiving offers.  The average market time was 135 days, a  shorter market time than last December’s 156 days.  Condos sold within 90% of the original asking price.

Median pricing is down overall, but the median sales price increased during December by 7% from $224,000 in December, 2010 to $239,000.  Remember median pricing reflects what sold that particular month.   This doesn’t mean pricing was up 7% for the year, but what sold in December, 2011 was slightly more expensive than what sold in December, 2010.

Our condo supply is usually the highest in the summer.  The bell curve shape for the number of condos for sale on the above chart is the typical pattern for most years, regardless of how the real estate market performs.   Condos do sell well in the summer, but competition is much fiercer.  If you’re thinking of selling your eastside condo, it’s best to get on the market in the early spring to get ahead of the competition.

Since we have micro-real estate markets in Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland and the other eastside cities, please contact us if you have questions about your complex or your condo’s value.

Have a great 2012!

The Seattle-Eastside real estate market ends 2011 in better shape than we’ve seen in the last four years.  There’s a more evenly balanced market between buyers and sellers, which the market is a fairly “normal” one in which some homes sit on the market and the good ones that show well and are priced well sell quickly.  In a balanced market, there is no  “one size fits all.” We see all kinds of things happening with homes, depending on the price, condition, sellers and buyer motivation.  The supply of homes is down more than it has been for 4 years, which is helping to balance out the supply of homes with the demand from buyers.

There’s a lot of yellow on the above map, indicating a balanced market in which it takes 4-6 months for a home to sell.   Yellow is the dominant color with the usual hot spots in some Seattle neighborhoods in “red,” indicating a faster moving market.

Here on the eastside, East Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft is the “hot” area and is shown in red.  Red means homes are selling at a faster rate,  in under 3 months.   This area finished the year with more than one third of the listed homes selling in December.  Not all that long ago there were over 200 homes for sale!  In December there were only 125 homes for sale and 42 of these homes received offers. The number of homes for sale in that area was incredibly low, prompting a faster market with a high absorption rate (supply to sales) and a short market time.

The rest of the eastside has experienced one of the better years since the market meltdown.  It’s a much more normal real estate market than 1, 2, or 3 years ago.  I expect this year to be even better!

The cities below are grouped together to follow our MLS areas (multiple listing service) because our statistics are reported in this manner.  The cities are listed in order from the highest to the lowest in demand which is determined by the number of homes sales compared to the number of homes for sale. (Again, it’s that absorption rate) If there is a greater demand, then there is a higher percentage of home sales.

How was real estate market in your Seattle-Eastside city in December, 2011?

1. Redmond/East Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 36%*

Median sales price increased (y-o-y)**from $420,000 to $455,000

125 homes were for sale

A total of 42 homes sold

Days on the market: 104

2. Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 19%

Median sales price increased from $498,000 to $510,000

167 homes were for sale

A total of 57 homes sold

Days on Market:  101

2. (TIE) South Bellevue/Issaquah

The odds of selling a home were 19%

Median price decreased from $560,000 to $505,000

242 homes were for sale

A total of 58 homes sold

Days on market: 123

3. The plateau:  Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City

The odds of selling a home were 17%

Median sales price increased from $440,000 to $463,000

There were 527 homes for sale

A total of 116 homes sold

Days on the market: 103

4.  Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation

The odds of selling a home were 16%

Median sales price decreased from $530,000 to $515,000

207 homes were for sale

A total of 66 homes sold

Days on Market: 115

4. (TIE) Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 16%

Median sales price decreased from $393,000 to $339,000

421 homes were for sale

A total of 96 homes sold

Days on Market: 127

5. West Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 10%.

Median sales price increased from $950,000 to $998,000

127 homes were for sale

A total of 15 homes sold

Days on Market: 95

In many of the areas where there was a higher demand, the median sales price for the month increased in December, 2011 from December 2010.  Prices did not go up last year.  When I compare 12/11 to 12/10, the median price of homes that sold in some areas was higher in 2011 than 2010.  If we take the whole year, pricing was down overall.

With the lower supply, I expect pricing to be more stable this year at the very least.  Competition is still there, but it is far less than it was in the middle of last year when more homes were for sale.

Will prices increase?  Only time will tell and if they do, it will be a minimal increase.  Read my soon to be published post about predictions for 2012.

If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact either Brooks or myself.

*(The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)

** (y-o-y)  median pricing is comparing year over year numbers.

Seattle Eastside Condo Sales Through November, 2011

There were more condo sales on the eastside with 156 sales over last year’s 125!  There also were 21% fewer condos on the market than in 2010.  More sales and fewer condos for sale is a good thing!

There were 867 condos for sale in November, with 156 of them receiving offers.  Average market time was 118 days, one of the shortest market times of the year.  Condos sold within 91% of the original asking price.

The median sales price declined by 11% from $250,000 to $233,000.  Remember, though, this number includes median prices for all condos, including bank foreclosures and short sales.

Is this decline a true measure of the marketplace?

• The sales numbers for November only reflect the sales that happened last month.  Looking at several months of activity will give us a more accurate read on the market, so it will be important to watch the activity over the next few months.)
• Distressed property sales bring the overall median pricing down.

Real estate, including condos has become more affordable because of the drop in value.   This is the reality of the situation and is a boon to buyers who are hoping to make a move.

How are condos selling in your area?

If you lived in Kirkland and had your home for sale last month, the odds of it selling in November were 31%, the strongest absorption rate to be found on the eastside.*  The homes in East Bellevue and Redmond areas around Microsoft had a 29% chance of selling.  Chances of selling ranged from 11-22.5% in the other eastside cities.

Homes in East Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft sold the fastest on Seattle’s eastside.  On average, homes there sold in 2 months.   Market time for the other eastside cities, ranged from 3 to 4 months.

This is reasonable market time, indicating a balanced market between buyers and sellers.  A balanced market means there’s a more normal market.  Some homes sold quickly and others stayed on the market for a long time.   Some homes sold for full price and others sold at steep discounts.

The November Real Estate Map Showing a More Balanced Market Between Buyers and Sellers

The cities below are grouped together to follow our MLS areas (multiple listing service).  This is how our statistics are reported.

How was real estate market in your Seattle-eastside city in November, 2011?

1. Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 31%.*

Median price decreased  (y-o-y)** from $530,000 to $477,000.

188 homes were for sale.

A total of 58 homes sold.

Days on Market:  105

2. Redmond/East Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 29%.

Median sales price decreased to $418,000 from $527,000.

163 homes were for sale

A total of 48 homes sold.

Days on the market: 60

3. South Bellevue/Issaquah

The odds of selling a home were 22.5%.

Median price increased from $538,000 to $550,000.

267 homes were for sale.

A total of 60 homes sold.

Days on market: 98

4. Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation

The odds of selling a home were 22%

Median pricing decreased from $540,000 to $530,000.

247 homes were for sale.

A total of 54 homes sold.

Days on Market: 104

4. (tie) Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 22%.

Median price was down from $451,000 to $394,000.

481 homes were for sale.

A total of 105 homes sold.

Days on Market: 114

5. The plateau:  Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City

The odds of selling a home were 18%.

Median sales price decreased from $460,000 to $441,000.

There were 580 homes for sale.

A total of 104 homes sold.

Days on the market: 119

6. West Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 11%.

Median pricing decreased to $950,000 from $1,035,000.

127 homes were for sale.

A total of 14 homes sold.

Days on Market: 91

Homes in East Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft sold the fastest on Seattle’s eastside in October.  Homes sold in under 2 months, at 59 days.    Market time for the other eastside cities, ranged from 99-117 days or just shy of 4 months.  This is a reasonable market time as it shows a more of a balanced market between buyers and sellers.  It’s actually a normal market and is better for “both sides of the table.”

The odds of selling a home in the Redmond and East Bellevue areas stood at 30%, which also was the strongest absorption rate to be found on the eastside.*  Chances of selling ranged from 19-26% in the other eastside cities.

The Redmond and East Bellevue area near Microsoft comes out on top for market time and a higher absorption rate because of more affordable housing, good jobs, an easier commute and good schools.  With the main Microsoft campus in Redmond right on the Bellevue line, there are lots of jobs right there.  In addition, there’s easier freeway and bus access to Seattle than in the outlying suburbs.

The higher price point in West Bellevue means fewer buyers can afford to live there.  Affordability issues increase the market time.  Longer market time here is a function of pricing, not desirability.  West Bellevue is considered to be one of the best locations on the eastside.

Two of the areas had an increase in the median pricing, Redmond and East Bellevue and Redmond and Education Hill.  Changes in median pricing, however, need to be looked at over a period of months since the median price for this month reflects the sales for this month only.

Why is market time important?  It’s one indication of the desirability and affordability of an area.  Both are key to future growth and appreciation.  People like to live in convenient areas with good schools and affordable housing.

The cities below are grouped together to follow our MLS areas (multiple listing service) and shows how our statistical information is  reported.  How did your city do this past month?

Which Seattle-eastside city had the fastest selling homes in October, 2011?

1. Redmond/East Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 30%.*

Median sales price increased (y-o-y)** to $435,000 from $427,000.

193 homes were for sale

A total of 58 homes sold.

Days on the market: 56

2. Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 26%.

Median price decreased from $592,000 to $501,000.

234 homes were for sale.

A total of 60 homes sold.

Days on Market:  99

3. Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation

The odds of selling a home were 19%

Median pricing increased from $541,000 to $580,000.

321 homes were for sale.

A total of 62 homes sold.

Days on Market: 100

4.Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 22%.

Median price was down from $377,000 to $370,000.

540 homes were for sale.

A total of 117 homes sold.

Days on Market: 101

5. South Bellevue/Issaquah

The odds of selling a home were 24%.

Median price decreased from $580,000 to $500,000.

338 homes were for sale.

A total of 81 homes sold.

Days on market: 104

6. The plateau:  Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City

The odds of selling a home were 23%.

Median sales price decreased from $500,000 to $460,000.

There were 650 homes for sale.

A total of 158 homes sold.

Days on the market: 108

7. West Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 22.5%.

Median pricing decreased from $985,000 to $878,000.

128 homes were for sale.

A total of 31 homes sold.

Days on Market: 117

Seattle Eastside Real Estate Sales-October, 2011

Yes, Virginia, there was a decline in median pricing on Seattle’s eastside in October. The Seattle media got everyone a little nervous about real estate when it stated there had been a 15% y-o-y price drop in King County real estate prices from October of 2010 to 2011.  I talked with several clients who were speaking doom and gloom about the eastside real estate market based on the news stories.   I suggested they look at the true numbers for the eastside, not the entire county.  The article discussed all of King County, which includes areas that are not doing as well as the eastside.  Seattle and the eastside cities, such as Bellevue, Kirkland, and Redmond, are the shining stars of King County real estate.  If you look near the bottom of the article, it states the decline in eastside real estate prices measured in the single digits, not 15%.

The decline on the eastside  depends on what you were looking at when comparing the numbers.  Median sales pricing declined by 9% from last year, but the average sold prices increased from $602.000 to $619,000.  It’s more of a mixed bag, although no home owner likes to see any sort of a decline.

Why the decline in median sales pricing? Here are some possible reasons:

• Jumbo loan rates have gone up, limiting the number of buyers who can buy at the higher end of the market.
• Distressed sales take up a large portion of the home sales all over the county.  Distressed sales, short sales and foreclosures, usually sell for less than market value, thus causing the median pricing to drop.
• Lastly, the numbers you see here are a result of the real estate sales activity that happened that particular month only.  In order to see a trend, it is important to look at a number of months together.  One month is only indicative of that particular month’s sales.

Remember real estate is hyperlocal and North King and South King County are different real estate markets than Seattle’s eastside.  In one of my next posts, I’ll look at the eastside real estate market even more closely and show the hottest and coolest selling areas.

Now that we have that issue of the decline in median pricing examined more closely, let’s take a look at what happened with eastside real estate in October.  There were 24% fewer homes on the market this October than last and 22% more homes sold than in 2010.  There were also 8% fewer homes on the market than in September of this year.  Sales increased by 22% from last year and by 11% from September of this year.

Most home sold within 97 days and for about 92% of the original asking price.  Sellers had a 23% chance of getting their homes sold last month.  These are strong numbers, much stronger than October of 2010.

I’ll be watching the sales trend over the next couple of months.  I expect to see fewer homes on the market and fewer sales as we approach the holidays.  But will median pricing decline?  What do you think?

So plan your Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s holidays.  Don’t give the holidays up and don’t give up the idea of selling your home now if that’s what you want to do.  With fewer homes on the market, your competition for buyers is far less.  Plus, the buyers who are out during the holiday season are buyers who are serious about buying a home. They don’t have time to waste.  They’re not casually looking for a home.  They’re in a buying mode.

Aubrey Cohen wrote an article about the fastest selling neighborhoods in Seattle, which prompted me to write this  post about the fastest selling neighborhoods on Seattle’s eastside.  What happens in Seattle, doesn’t just stay in Seattle, it also happens here on the Eastside!

Homes in East Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft sold the fastest on Seattle’s eastside in September.  Not only did these homes sell more quickly, in 69 days, but out of the 204 homes for sale, 51 got offers.  These means that 25% of the homes in the area sold in September, among the best odds on Seattle’s eastside.  The odds of selling a home in the Woodinville, Bothell areas also stood at 25%, which means September was one of the best months to sell a home in those cities.

Why do homes in East Bellevue and Redmond sell more quickly? Because they’re close to employment centers and transportation and have a broader range of more affordable housing.  With the main Microsoft campus in Redmond and on the border of Bellevue, there’s a huge number of jobs right in the area.  In addition, there’s easier freeway and bus access to Seattle than in the outlying suburbs.

West Bellevue is the most expensive area on the eastside, although it’s proximity to Seattle, schools, and housing make it the premier location on the eastside.  The higher price point in the area means fewer buyers can afford West Bellevue, which increases the market time.  Longer market time here is a function of pricing, not desirability.

Why is market time important?  It’s one indication of the desirability and affordability of an area and both are key to future growth and appreciation.  People like to live in convenient areas with good schools and affordable housing.  (Remember affordability is relative to each area of the country.)

The cities below are grouped together to follow our MLS areas (multiple listing service) and shows how our statistical information is  reported.

Which Seattle-eastside city had the fastest selling homes?

1. Redmond/East Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 25%.*

Median sales price decreased (y-o-y)** to $503,000 from $560,000.

204 homes were for sale

A total of 51 homes sold.

Days on the market: 69

2. Kirkland

The odds of selling a home was 21%.

Median price increased from $516,000 to $626,000.

270 homes were for sale.

A total of 57 homes sold.

Days on Market:  87

3. South Bellevue/Issaquah

The odds of selling a home were 18%.

Median price decreased from $533,000 to $529,000.

362  homes were for sale.

A total of 65 homes sold.

Days on market: 88

3 (tie). Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 25%.

Median price was down from $415,000 to $380,000.

558 homes were for sale.

A total of 139 homes sold.

Days on Market: 88

4. The plateau:  Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City

The odds of selling a home were 19%.

Median sales price increased from $486,000 to $500,000.

There were 714 homes for sale.

A total of 137 homes sold.

Days on the market: 90

5. Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation

The odds of selling a home were 19%

Median pricing increased from $541,000 to $580,000.

321 homes were for sale.

A total of 62 homes sold.

Days on Market: 100

5. West Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 19%.

Median pricing decreased from $956,000 to $936,000.

164 homes were for sale.

A total of 31 homes sold.

Days on Market: 127

Overall, market time is excellent in all of the eastside cities.  As I mentioned above, Seattle-eastside real estate is one of the bright spots in the country.  Companies in the area are hiring and people continue to want to live here because of the quality of life, the job market, and good schools.  

Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Sales through September, 2011

Seattle’s eastside real estate market was very steady in September, 2011.   It’s not dramatic with the highs and lows of the recent past, which is refreshing, plus eastside real estate sales are moving and moving well.  It looks as if the peak of real estate sales for the year was back in May, when 24% of the available homes got offers.  However, in September overall sales dropped only slightly, to 21%.  The sales average of 21% means out of the 2713 homes for sale, 563 sold.

Real estate sales on the eastside improved dramatically when compared to last year.  This means we’re experiencing a more normal, realistic market in 2011 than in 2010.  There are fewer homes on the market and 33% more homes sold on the eastside this September when compared to last year.  Our less volatile real estate market is our new normal and really is not bad at all!

On average, most homes were on the market for 90 days before they sold.  Homes sold within 93% of the original asking price with the median sales price for the eastside at $526,000.