• Seattle will recover more quickly than other parts of the west.
• Growth will be slow and from the center, Seattle, out to the suburbs.
• The private sector has increased job growth in the last 4-5 months and will continue to do so.

Private Sector Employment in the Seattle Area

• There will be more price corrections for those hi-rise condos that have not sold both in Seattle and Bellevue.
• Buyers are still looking for good deals and feel uncertainty remains.
• Prices are stable and, hopefully, will stay that way this year.
• Banks are not releasing all of the bank owned homes to sell. The banks would go bankrupt if they flooded the market with these homes, causing prices to drop.
• Mortgage rates will increase:  over 5% this year, 6% in 2012, and 7% by 2014.

30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Predictions

Here’s a few of Mr. Gardner’s thoughts for 2011 from the first of the year.

What do you think?  Is this what you see happening in the area and with real estate?

Local economist, Matthew Gardner presented his predictions for next year’s economy and the real estate market.

(photo: Andrew@cubagallery)

Here are a few of his predictions for 2011:

Economic growth will remain slow, particularly for the first half of the year.
An “easing” in the economy should been seen as the year progresses, helping to restore some consumer confidence.
The  unemployment rate will drop some, but improvement will be slow.
A 5% decline in home prices across U.S.
Inflation will be minimal, benefiting home buyers.
Interest rates should go higher, but still remain on the lower side.

What do you see happening in your area?

Hope your 2011 will be looking up!

Seattle Area Real Estate 11-30-10

The Seattle-eastside market is balanced.  Surprised by that?  Here’s why I say this: A balanced market is when homes on average are selling in 3-6 months.  This means there was a more level playing field between buyers and sellers during that particular month, in this case November 2010.  Given the news we hear, it’s surprising to think of the eastside real estate market in this way.

Does this mean it’s no longer a challenge to sell a home?  Absolutely not.  The competition is still very stiff. There are a lot of homes for buyers to buy.  A market in which it takes homes 3-6 months to sell is still a challenging, but not a terrible, real estate market.   In a balanced market, some homes sell quickly for a good price, others take a lot longer to sell with a steep discount in the the asking price, and still others don’t sell at all.  I’m still going to be telling home sellers to have the best home out there and expect a sale to take a long time to happen.  Homes that sell have to be a really good value to be the ones that sell.   Believe it or not, this is pretty typical of a more balanced, realistic market. A realistic market is not a fast paced real estate market.  A realistic market will have some distressed home sellers.  Although this is a cause of major concern and I am not minimizing the situation for those who are distressed sellers, the majority of eastside homes are NOT distressed sales.

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What do the 3 digit numbers on the map mean?

The map is divided into the numbered areas as defined by our Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS).  Downtown Bellevue is area 520 and East Bellevue is area 530, as an example.

What do the colors mean?

Red means it’s a sellers’ market, a sellers’ advantage.  Homes take less than 3 months to sell.

Yellow means a balanced market between buyers and sellers.  Homes on the average take 3-6 months to sell.

Green means it’s a buyers’ market.  Homes take longer than 6 months to sell.

If you take each area as shown on the map and look to the area number on the side of the map, it will tell you how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale if no other home came up on the market in that area.

Seattle Eastside Condo Sales Nov 2010

(The absorption rate, the percentage of condos selling, is the number of condos for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of condos sold that month.  So if the absorption rate or chance of selling is 10% that means out of 100 condos for sale, 10 received offers and sold.)

November, 2010         1191 condos for sale       150 condos sold                    12.5% odds of selling

October, 2010             1375 condos for sale       136 (was 147) condos sold      9% (was 11%)  odds of selling.*

September, 2010        1448 condos for sale      130 (was 155) condos sold         9% (was 11%) odds of selling.*

November, 2009            1289  condos for sale     121 condos  sold                   9% odds of selling.

*Adjusted from previous month’s original numbers to reflect the actual number of condos sold and closed.  Some of the sales originally reported last month failed and did not close.   Some of the reasons sales fail are the buyer and seller don’t agree on the building inspection, the condo does not appraise for the sales price or the buyer’s financing does not come through.

Wow, November showed the biggest drop in the number of Seattle-eastside condos for sale so far this year! There are 184 less condos for sale.  We’re almost at the lowest point of inventory, that is the available condos, for the year.  The peak of condos for sale was back in July, when over 1500 condos were for sale on the eastside.

Everyone is so focused on how much homes and condos are losing in value.  Yes, there’s no one selling in today’s market that hasn’t lost money in the value of his/her home or condo in the last few years.  But remember, if you’re selling because you’d like to buy another condo or home, that one will also cost a lot less than it would have been a few years ago.

If you plan to selling your condo in the next year or so, feel free to contact me if you have questions about what you need to do to get ready to sell.  Most every seller has to do a few things before putting a home on the market for the world to see.  If your home is in the best possible condition before going on the market, there’s a better chance your home will be one of those 9-12% of homes that gets the offer.

Happy Holidays and have a great 2011!

View Larger Map

In 5 of the 7 Seattle-eastside real estate areas, sales percentages were up by a lot from last year!  Sales increases ranged from 13.5% in Redmond/Carnation to 47% in Redmond/East Bellevue.

We also saw a huge drop in the number of homes for sale on Seattle’s eastside over the past few months.  A higher percentage of  home sales and less homes for sale is good news.  The market is still challenging.   The homes with the best value proposition of price and condition  grab the attention of the buyers.  These are homes that are selling.

How did November, 2009 compare to November, 2010 in your neighborhood?

(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years.  You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down.  The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)

The plateau:  Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City

The odds of selling a home were 16%.

Median sales price decreased from $552,500 to  $474,000.

The number of homes for sale increased by 12% and sales were down by 15% from last year.

Redmond/East Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 22%.

Median sales price decreased to $416,500 from $479,000.

The number of homes for sale was down by 12% and sales were up by 47%.

South Bellevue/Issaquah

The odds of selling a home were 22%.

Median price decreased from $685,000 to $599,419.

The number of homes for sale dropped by 10% and sales were up by 26%.

Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 15%.

Median price was down from $411,750 to $405,000.

The number of homes for sale declined by 3% and sales were up by 41%.

Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 17%.

Median price decreased to $549,950 from $739,000.

The number of homes for sale declined by 16% and sales were up by 13.5%.

West Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 15%.

Median pricing was down from $996,500 to $829,500.

The number of homes for sale decreased by 9% and sales decreased by 3%.

Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation

The odds of selling a home were 16 %

Median pricing decreased from $559,900 to $525,000.

The number of homes for sale decreased by 3% and sales increased by 16%.

If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact me.

Have a terrific holiday season and Happy New Year!

Number of King County Homes for Sale 11-29-10

It’s easy to see that King County real estate is following the national trend right now. There are fewer homes on the market than just a few weeks ago and, definitely, from a few months ago.  The peak of the competition was back in the last week of July when there were 14,639 homes on the market.

This week, we’re about ready to cross the line below 12,000 homes for sale with the number standing at 12,119.  The number of King County homes for sale should drop back below 12,000 by next week or the week after.   Plan on it.

It would be great to get back below the the 10,000 mark as we did back at the beginning of this year.

Many people think this time of year isn’t a good time to sell a home.  With the lower number of homes for sale, meaning less competition for buyers, what do you think?

Seattle Eastside Condo Sales Through October 2010

(The absorption rate, the percentage of condos selling, is the number of condos for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of condos sold that month.  So if the absorption rate or chance of selling is 10% that means out of 100 condos for sale, 10 received offers and sold.)

October, 2010             1375 condos for sale       147 condos sold                    11% odds of selling.

September, 2010        1448 condos for sale      130 (was 155) condos sold         9% (was 11%) odds of selling.*

October, 2009            1363  condos for sale     200 condos  sold                   15% odds of selling.

*Adjusted from previous month’s original numbers to reflect the actual number of condos sold and closed.  Some of the sales originally reported last month failed and did not close.   Some of the reasons sales fail are the buyer and seller don’t agree on the building inspection, the condo does not appraise for the sales price or the buyer’s financing does not come through.

The number of Seattle-eastside condos for sale dropped considerably as there are about 75 less condos for sale.  The numbers are back down to March’s numbers.  It’s pretty typical, no matter the kind of real estate market there is out there, for there to be more condos for sale in the summer than at any other time during the year.  The decline in the number of condos for sale should continue until the end of the year. So if you plan to sell next year, start early in the year.  Don’t wait until summer.

If you’re selling your condo now, can you be one of the 11/100 who gets the offer?  Yes, if price and condition beat all of your competition.

What do you see happening with condo sales in your area?

View Larger Map

Ok, the real estate market is slower, that much we all know, but it’s not dead and there are homes selling. These are the homes that stand out compared to the competition, because they show well and are seen as a value.  Today’s pricing is similar to 2005 pricing.  I’ll post another piece which shows these numbers.

Sales were down by a huge amount in Woodinville, Kenmore, Bothell,  Duvall, and North Kirkland.  The sales dropped by 42% from last year.

The number of homes for sale in King County has dropped below 13,000 for the first time since early May. On Seattle’s eastside, the number of homes for sale is down by about 200 homes.   These numbers are headed in the right direction.

In “Microsoft land”, the neighborhoods of Redmond and East Bellevue near Microsoft’s home base, the sales prices actually went up by about 1% in value.  Remember, the median pricing for any month will reflect the sales for that month and it is important to look at several months or more to see the real trend.  I wish I could say this month’s increase was the norm, but if you look at past posts and the charts in the link above, you’ll see this is not the case.

Expect to see more homes come off the market as we head towards the holidays.  We started the year with 9700+ homes for sale in King County, which was the lowest number of the year. So if you plan to sell next year, think about getting on the market early, when your home will have less competition.
Happy Turkey Day!

How did October, 2009 compare to October, 2010 in your neighborhood?

(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years.  You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down.  The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)

The plateau:  Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City

The odds of selling a home were 20%.

Median sales price decreased from $509,000 to  $477,500.

The number of homes for sale increased by 16% and sales were down by 9% from last year.

West Redmond/East Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 18%.

Median sales price increased to $449,900 from $445,000.

The number of homes for sale was up by 2% and sales were even with last year.

South Bellevue/Issaquah

The odds of selling a home were 15%.

Median price decreased to $514,500 from $592,500.

The number of homes for sale dropped by 1.5% and sales were down by 28%.

Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 11%.

Median price was down from $429,975 to $403,450.

The number of homes for sale declined by 2% and sales were down by 41%.

Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 19%.

Median price decreased to $488,900 from $500,000.

The number of homes for sale declined by 7% and sales were down by 9%.

West Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 9.5%.

Median pricing was down from $1,150,000 to $948,000.

The number of homes for sale decreased by 9% and sales decreased by 27%.

Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation

The odds of selling a home were 16 %

Median pricing decreased from $449,995 to $474,950.

The number of homes for sale increased by 8% and sales decreased by 32%.

What real estate activity have you seen in your neighborhood?  If you would like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact me.

Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Sales, October 2010

So how was the October real estate market on Seattle’s eastside?  Thankfully (it’s almost Thanksgiving after all), the number of homes on the market is down.

The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in October ranged from 9.5% to 20%, with an average 16% absorption rate.*  Most home sellers on Seattle’s eastside had a 16/100 change of selling their home last month.  The absorption rates were pretty consistent throughout the whole eastside.

*(The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month.  If the absorption rate is 10%, then 10 out of the 100 homes for sale sold that month.)

October, 2010          3267 homes for sale     519 homes sold          16% odds of selling.

September, 2010    3487 homes for sale     475 homes sold          14% odds of selling.*

October,  2009       3240 homes for sale     537 homes sold           17% odds of selling.

*(Some home sales fail because of the buyer financing or an inspection.  The number of sales is updated when we find out the actual number of homes that sold during that time.)

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October, 2009 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to October, 2010:

 
• The average  price of pending homes (recently sold homes) went from $543,469 to $508,175.
  
• As of this past week, there were 12,942 King County homes (houses and condos) for sale, the first time this number has dropped below 13,000 since May 5th of this year!
  
• The number of homes sold on Seattle’s Eastside: down 19% from last year.
  
• Number of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside: Over 200 fewer homes  for sale than last year, following the trend in the market, which is great to see.
  
• The reality is the actual number of homes selling has not changed all that much, it’s the competition that has increased by a huge margin.  Since it is more competitive out there, the homes that are priced right and show well are the homes the buyers pick to buy.
  

Best odds of selling: The Sammamish and Issaquah plateau, plus North Bend, Snoqualmie and Fall City. 

Worst odds of selling: West Bellevue, at 9.5%, again the neighborhood is falling below a 10% absorption rate because it is one of the most expensive areas on Seattle’s eastside, which means less buyers can afford to live in the area.

Biggest increase in sales from last year: Kirkland!  I could see it happening this past month.  It looks like Kirkland real estate has risen from the summer doldrums, with an increase of 9% in sales from last year.  The only area on the eastside to experience an increase.

Smallest increase in sales from last year: For want of a better way to describe it, the Redmond and Bellevue areas around Microsoft experienced the same number of sales in October this year as last.  So no increase, but no decline in sales either!

Decline in home sales from last year: There was a decline in 5 out of the 7 Seattle-eastside areas.   Woodinville, Kenmore, Duvall, Bothell and North Kirkland had the biggest decline in sales, which were down 40%.

The peak of homes for sale in 2008: July,  4370 homes.

The peak of homes for sale in 2009: June,  3859 homes.

The number of eastside homes for sale at the start of 2010: 2584 homes

The number of eastside homes for sale now: 3267 homes.

For a picture of King County sales, check out The Seattle Times.

What are you seeing in your neighborhood?  Are some doing better than others?

The topic of foreclosures has been in the forefront of the news lately, with talk of robo-signers, sloppy paperwork and the like.  People are worried about how this affects the economy in general and, more specifically,  our Seattle-eastside real estate market.

The charts below show the total percentage of distressed properties, which includes short sales and bank owned properties.

Total Number of Seattle Area Distressed Properties Sales, 2009-2010

The next two charts show those sales that required 3rd party approval (short sales), and those that were bank owned.

Seattle Area Short Sales Requiring Third Party Approval 2009 - 2010

Seattle Area Bank Owned Property Sales, 2009-2010

The information covers most of the counties around Seattle and the city of Seattle itself.  The charts show the percentage of distressed property sales from the 3rd quarter of 2009 through the 3rd quarter of 2010.

Not surprisingly, Seattle proper and the eastside have fared better than Pierce, Snohomish, and Kitsap counties.  Although Kitsap county did have among the lowest number of short sales in some quarters of the past year.  The stronger markets in Seattle and on the eastside are a direct result of the stronger and more diverse economy and job market in these areas.  The area is the beneficiary of hi tech, engineering, and bio-tech jobs than some of the other counties.  People who work in these fields tend to live closer to or in Seattle or on the eastside.  (Although these jobs can be found all over western Washington, there is a greater concentration in the great Seattle area.)

During the first quarter of 2010, 24% of Seattle-eastside property sales were distressed properties.  The second and third quarters both averaged 19% in distressed sales.  Not great numbers, but the reality is in our worst quarter 75% of the sales were not distressed properties.  Since so much of the news has focused on distressed properties and foreclosures, it’s good to know that most sales are not in that category.

What do you think about these numbers?