(pended means the number of condos that got offers this month)

Seattle-Eastside Condo Sales June 2009

(The absorption rate, the percentage of condos selling,  is the number of condos for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of condos sold that month.  So if the absorption rate or chance of selling is 10% that means out of 100 condos for sale, 10 received offers and sold.)

June, 2009                                1491 condos for sale                     189 condos sold                12% chance of selling

May, 2009                                 1441 condos for sale              153 condos sold         10% (12%) chance of selling.

*Adjusted from previous month’s original numbers to reflect the actual number of homes sold and closed.  Some of the sales from each month originally reported fall out and do not close.

Real estate activity, in general,  stronger this year than last.  However, 14% of the sales didn’t close that were reported as pending in May.  When first reported in May. there were 177 sales.  The month of May ended up with 153 sales, which means 27 home sales fell apart and did not close.

Sales don’t close for a variety of reasons: an appraisal that came in lower than the selling price, an inspection that both buyer and seller couldn’t agree upon or a lender who didn’t put the loan package together properly.  These are  just some of the reasons sales have failed recently.  Unfortunately, there are other reasons sales fail to close.

The condo market on Seattle’s eastside is still far stronger than last year at this time.  Both the number of condos for sale and the amount of sales have increased.  For buyers thinking about making their first purchase, it’s a good time to make a move to get the $8000 tax incentive. Right now, the tax incentive goes away if you have not purchased and closed on a home by November 30th, 2009.  It sounds like it is far away, but if you want to close in November, you should be making an offer by the beginning of October.  It’s really not all that far away.

Seattle/Eastside Real Estate, June 2009

The chances of selling a home on the Eastside in June 2009 ranged from a low of 13% to a high of 23%, with an average 17% absorption rate. (The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month.)  Numbers are rounded off to the nearest whole number, unless the number is exactly .5% between two numbers.

Here are the real estate statistics for single family home sales activity on Seattle’s Eastside:

June, 2009           3859 homes for sale,         675  homes sold          17% chance of selling.

May, 2009            3841 homes for sale           557  homes sold          14% (16%) chance of selling.*

June,  2008          4305 homes for sale          478  homes sold            11% chance of selling.

*Adjusted from previous month’s original numbers to reflect the actual number of homes sold and closed.  Some of the sales from each month originally reported fall out and do not close.

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(You can still find the  MLS charts by clicking on each of the cities below.  Those charts have some of the same information as the chart above, but also show the real estate trends for the last 5 years which includes median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales are up or down.  If you look at the charts by city, you’ll notice the total number of homes for sale and the number of homes sold can vary slightly from those charts to the chart above.  The information for the charts is gathered at slightly different times so will vary slightly.  Regardless of the exact numbers, it’s clear the charts show the same trends, which is the most important piece of information.)

(click on city names for a chart showing the latest stats in the area)

The plateau:  Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City

The chances of selling were 21%.

Median sales price decreased by 15% from $589,000 to $499,950.

Inventory was down by 12% and sales were up by 13% from last year.

West Redmond/East Bellevue

The chances of selling were 23%.

Median sales price decreased to $499,950 from $549,500 a decrease of 9%.

Inventory was down 11% and sales were down 1%. (74 vs. 75 sales)

South Bellevue

The chances of selling were 14.5%.

Median price decreased by 4% from $610,000 to $588,975

Inventory was down by 15.5% and sales were up 24%.

Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland

The chances of selling were 18%.

Median price was down to $419,950 from $498,875, a 15% decrease.

Inventory was down by 15% from last year and sales were up by 12.5%.

Kirkland

The chances of selling were 15%.

Median price decreased by18%, from $724,950  to $596,925.

Inventory was down by 12% and sales were down by 6%.

West Bellevue

The chances of selling were 13%.

Median pricing decreased by34%  from $1,294,750 to $849,000.

Inventory decreased by 2% and sales increased by 57%.

Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation

The chances of selling were 19%

Median pricing decreased by 21%  from $671,035 to $529,950.

Inventory decreased by 5% and sales increased by 43%.

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Thoughts on the June 2009 Seattle Eastside real estate market:

• Most eastside homes had 17% chance of selling.  Seventeen out of 100 homes had offers last month and are now pending.
• It looks like 11% of the home sales fell out of escrow, as the absorption rate for May dropped by 2%.  Originally, there were 624 pending sales, so 67 offers did not stay together.  This is a high number of failed sales and could  be the result of inspections in which buyers and sellers do not agree, an appraisal that does not justify the sales price or lenders who do not package the loan properly.  If a lender doesn’t put the buyers information together correctly or doesn’t understand all that will be required, then the loan may not be approved.
  
• Best odds of selling:once again it’s Redmond, near Microsoft, and East Bellevue with a 23% chance.
  
• Most difficult odds of selling:  West Bellevue, with a 13% chance of selling a home.  Yet, West Bellevue had the biggest increase from last year with the chance of getting a home sold.
  
• The number of homes for sale is still less than last year, but the home sales were up in almost every part of the eastside.

Both The Seattle Times and KPLU had good stories about the more positive Seattle area real estate market.

Here’s a little fun for a Friday.  Public restrooms, “the final frontier,” according to the Wall Street Journal, and the place we worry about putting our derrieres, are up for a vote.   Here’s your chance to vote online for the best public restroom in the country. For the past 8 years, Cintas Corporation of Cinncinnati has sponsored a contest to identify the top public restroom from a list of 10 public restrooms in the country.  The Wall Street Journal ran the story about the contest and you can vote online for your pick. 

Seattle’s Canlis restaurant, not only one of the top restaurants in the city, also has one of the top restrooms in the country.  Canlis is on this year’s top ten list.  So take a moment and choose your top restroom.  I’m sure you’ll be totally impartial and not let a local Seattle icon influence you.  (Go  Canlis!)

A rebound in Seattle real estate?  Yes, but not just yet, and it will probably be a small rebound, IMHO. Both Yahoo, via the Plugged in Finance blog and Businessweek had articles projecting a faster return to a more positive real estate market  for Seattle than for many other parts of the country.  Seattle ended up on the top 10 real estate rebound lists on both Yahoo and  Businessweek.

Why a rebound in Seattle? Seattle’s chances are among the best in the country and for the same reasons the Seattle/Eastside area was so strong for most of the last two decades.  It’s our economy and our geography.

First, the geography. (Bear with me for this brief geography lesson. This brings me back to my roots as a social studies teacher who loves geography.) If you click on the “view larger version” of the map below, you’ll notice a lot of empty space east of Monroe down to Fall City.  This is where the foothills of the Cascade Mountain range begins.  It looks like there’’s lots of  open space out there, and there is, but it gets pretty steep!

Couple this with strict land use regulations, protecting salmon streams as an example, and even less land is available for development.  It’s double-edged sword.  We need to maintain a healthy balance between people and nature, to maintain our wildlife, our trees, and our quality of life.   But the natural elements of the Seattle area, Puget Sound, Lake Washington, and  the Cascade Mountains do provide a challenge to our growth.   Less land to develop=higher prices , but it  won’t happen for a few years and increases should still be modest.

View Larger Map

The economy in the Seattle area is hurting like the rest of the country.  But there’’s a strong economic base that will re-emerge as things start to turn around.  The old stand-bys, Microsoft, Starbucks, and Boeing are struggling now, but should bounce back.

Another thing to watch is the number of homes for sale, the housing inventory.  We’re still at higher numbers, but things are starting to balance out. If you look at the maps, you’ll see the Seattle real estate market of 2009 is far more balanced than the Seattle real estate market of 2008. (A balance market is when the number of homes for sale in an area is less than a 6 months supply.  Yellow on the attached maps indicates a balanced market in the area.

Builders are NOT buying land right now. Over the years, builders would have huge amounts of land tied up for future building.  This is no longer the case.  It can take a couple of years to develop a site and to start building homes. With less land available for building and less land owned by builders and ready to be built out, existing homes will be more in demand in the future.

On yesterday’s “Morning Edition” on NPR Station, KPLU, John Maynard interviewed Richard Hagar about another issue, the influx of new people moving to Washington State, the majority of whom are moving to King County. Some of these people rent and some buy condos and homes.  The in-migration of people will only help our real estate and economy over time.

The year 2012 seems like a long way off, but we’re halfway through 2009.  It’s around a really long corner and but it’s not going to be an easy “walk” to get there.

Recently, I wrote about my experience with the “new and improved” real estate appraisal process, the HVCC, House Valuation Code of Conduct, a misguided attempt to right the wrongs of past appraisals.   The appraisal process needed to be revamped, but I’m not alone in seeing how difficult the new appraisal system has been for the consumer.  Petitions are online for people to ask that the HVCC be reevaluated.

Briefly, the HVCC requires all appraisals to go through a central clearing house.  The next appraiser on the list is assigned the job, regardless of experience and knowledge about an area.  The appraiser may live and work in an area hours away from the property. It’s very hard for anyone to know the individual nuances of a neighborhood, builders, school systems, etc. and how these affect value.  I can only imagine how hard it must be for appraisers to have to evaluate properties hither and yon.   How could anyone appraise properties in an area that’s the size of small states and get it right all of the time?

In addition,  appraisals cost buyers about the same as before, $450-500, but the portion of the fee directed to the appraiser has decreased. The appraisers only make about $200 and the rest of the fee goes to the appraisal management companies, which, by the way, are often owned by banks and title insurance companies.  This from Matt Carter at Inman News:

As originally proposed, the code would have barred lenders from ordering reports from appraisal management companies they owned more than a 20 percent stake in. But as adopted, the code does not limit lender ownership stakes in appraisal management companies.

What if your lender makes a mistake and your loan needs to go to a different lender?  Believe me, it happens and it happens to good, strong buyers.  Well, not only will your loan close late, you”ll be the proud owner of two appraisals. This from Matt Carter at Inman News again ( Joseph Heller would have had fun with this one):

I’ve heard of appraisals coming in late, causing the buyer to close late and lose their loan lock.  Imagine how difficult this is when you have movers sitting in your driveway and they are booked for weeks afterward.  I could go on, but this is a simplified version of the changes brought to the real estate industry by the HVCC.

Two US Representatives, Representative Travis Childers (D-Miss) and Gary Miller (R-CA),  have introduced a bill, HR 3044, to suspend the new HVCC code for 18 months, so it can be properly evaluated. This a good thing for consumers and the housing industry.  Changes to the appraisal system need to be done right, but not by implementing a system that creates more problems.   We must be fair to both buyers and sellers and make sure  appraisals are coming in on time and at the value that exists in the marketplace.

It’s important for you to contact your congress person to see this law is passed to help protect the integrity of the system and ensure changes to the appraisal system are a benefit, not a detriment.

So you think it always rains in Seattle? It’s our big secret, but Seattle summers are just gorgeous and this year is proving to be one of the best.  People in the Seattle don’t waste a minute when the sun is out and the weather is just fine.    Here are some photos from the Fourth of July, 2009 weekend of people and places around Seattle and Lake Washington.

Mt Olympus sunset

This past Saturday, I showed a home I had listed on Finn Hill, which is in Kirkland.   The showing went well, the people were great, and I was done showing by 10:40 in the morning.  It was a gorgeous, sunny day, the kind you wish you could bottle and keep in Seattle year round.

Since it was so beautiful, it was fun to be out driving around on such a gorgeous day.  I noticed a sign that said “plant sale” taped to a stop sign.  I decided to follow the “plant sale” sign.  The sign led me further north on Finn Hill to the next town, Kenmore.  When I found the house with the sale, I expected to find a few plants, but nothing like what was there.  Behind a wooden fence, is a huge garden, with a huge nursery on about two acres! Who would have thought!  I found “Taking Root,”  the fabulous garden and nursery created by Kathy Norsworthy.

Beautiful Plants from Kenmore's Taking Root

Photo from Kathy Norsworthy of "Taking Root"

There’s a huge variety of plants, over 300.  Everything you could ever think of was there.  Plants for sun, plants for shade, veggies, sedums, perennials, annuals, shrubs, and more than 49 varieties of hostas.  Every time I asked about a particular plant, Kathy found several for me.  Her mission is “helping to grow beautiful gardens, one at a time.”  Many of the plants were just $5.00.  So all you gardeners looking for some great plants should get in touch with Kathy.  Kathy’s email address is knowsbetter1@comcast.net.  Contact her as she is only open certain days.  This week she is open today, July 2nd and tomorrow, July 3rd from 9 to 5 PM.

After stopping at “Taking Root”, I wandered down Juanita Drive and stopped at a stand to buy some bing cherries.

Selling Bing Cherries

It’s cherry season in Washington State and this is a recording breaking season for the bing cherry crop.  Summer is the time for fresh bing cherries from Yakima Valley, which is just over the Cascade Mountains from Seattle.  So take advantage of this season’s bounty.  We are so lucky to have such wonderful plants and fruit available to us in the Northwest.

Sometimes you find the most interesting things when you least expect it.

Windermere announced its company website will now include all open houses, not just Windermere Real Estate’s open houses.  This is a good thing.  Consumers expect to get quality information about the real estate market from a real estate website.  Sharing all the data makes perfect sense.

A top quality website enhances the customer experience, which ultimately should be the goal.   It’s not only a benefit for the real estate company and every buyer and seller, it’s a benefit for Windermere agents, buyers, and sellers. It’s a win-win situation for all.

The traditional real estate companies are so well versed in the home buying and selling process, providing all the  real estate data online provides true full service to the consumer.

Seattle-Eastside Condo Real Estate Statistics, May 2009

(pended means the number of condos that got offers this month)

(The absorption rate, the percentage of condos selling,  is the number of condos for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of condos sold that month.  So if the absorption rate or chance of selling is 10% that means out of 100 condos for sale, 10 received offers and sold.)

1441 condos for sale                     177 condos sold                12% chance of selling.

May represented the highest number of condo sales on Seattle’s eastside since June, 2008. The number of condos for sale increased dramatically this month, with the addition of 126 more condos for sale, whereas only 15  more condos sold in May than in April.  There was a much bigger jump in the condos for sale than in the number of condos that sold.

Real estate activity, in general, is picking up.  It will be interesting to watch how the fluctuating interest rates affect the sales of condos on Seattle’s eastside and in the real estate market overall.  We have to remember that rates are still wonderfully low, even if they go up.