What Were The Chance of selling your Seattle/Eastside Home in September, 2007?

The chances of selling a home on the Eastside in September 2007 ranged from a low of 9% to a high of 18%, depending on the neighborhood.  All the Eastside areas experienced a decline in the chances of selling a home.

The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend and Fall City

(click on the name of each area to for a chart showing the latest stats in the area)

Sellers had a 15% chance of getting a home sold, DOWN from 20% last month and DOWN from 31% last year.
Median home prices were up by 8.4% to 602,500 from $555,950.
Inventory was up by 41% and sales declined by 31% from last year.

Interesting that last month home prices declined by 5% and this month they are now back up.  This shows how difficult it is to measure the market by looking at month to month changes only.  Comparisons showing a minimum of 6 months will give a better picture of the market.

West Redmond/East Bellevue

Sellers had a 18% chance of getting a home sold, DOWN from 24% last month and DOWN from 33 % last year.
Median sales price increased to $575,000 from $549,000 last year, a 4.7% change.
Inventory was up by 31%  and sales were down by 27%.

Last year the number of sales dropped and the inventory increased dramatically in September.  In August of 2006, 53% of the homes sold, whereas in September 2006 33% sold. Last fall, was also a bit of a slow down from the previous 8 months.

South Bellevue 

Sellers had a 9% chance of selling a home, DOWN from 19% last month and DOWN from 19% last year.                                                                                   

Median price dropped to $627,250 from $685,950, a 8.6% decline.
Inventory jumped by 32% and sales were down by 33%.

Again, there was a large drop last year from August to September of 2006, 21% less homes sold.

Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall

Sellers had a 13% chance of selling a home, DOWN from 16% last month and DOWN from 28% last year.
Median price was down from $499,950 to $495,000, a 1% decrease.
Inventory was up a whopping 60% and sales are down by 27%.

Again, in September 2006, there was a drop of 13% in the chances of getting a home sold.

Kirkland

Sellers had a 10% chance of selling a home, DOWN from 14% last month and DOWN from 14 % last year.
Median price dropped by 5.6%,  to 679,975 from $719,990.
Inventory was up by 14% and sales were down by 24%

 Last year, the number of sales dropped from 21% in August to 14% in September.

West Bellevue

Sellers had an 8% chance of selling a home, DOWN from 18%, and DOWN from 23% last year.

Sellers had a 12% chance of selling a home, DOWN from 25% last month  and DOWN from 25% last year.

Median pricing was down from $619,000 to $549,950, a 11.2% decrease.
Inventory was up by 38.6% and sales were down by 35%   

I repeat my comments from last month:

Are we seeing  the real estate market behave like fall of 2001?  It reminds me of what happened to the economy after 9-11.  After the terrorist attacks, everyone froze and no one did anything.  Homes, cars, boats, none of the large consumer goods were selling.  When 2002 came, everyone breathed a sigh of relief and was able to move forward as if the country was off to a fresh start.  In the Puget Sound region with our strong economy, there is no reason to stop looking for and purchasing homes.  Homes will still appreciate.  Prices will not become significantly less expensive in this area.

I wrote about the good state of the economy in this region on a post at The Seattle PI Real Estate Professionals blog.  I think buyers are fearful and waiting to see what will happen next.  Unfortunately, no one will ever know exactly when the “lowest” point of the market is until it is too late and it’s already passed by.  Only when the market begins to go up will we realize we’ve reached bottom. 

 The selection of homes is terrific right now.  Sellers are negotiable. If you buy now will you buy at the bottom of the market? Maybe yes and maybe no.  But you will be buying in a much lower priced market and one that is very “pro” buyers.  It’s been a long time since the market has been such a strong buyer’s market. 

Have there been slower markets?  Most definitely.  However, with the state of the LOCAL economy, we should be just fine. Do you plan to be in your home for a few years?  Then you, too,  should be just fine.  The people who are at risk for losing money on a home purchase are those that plan to hold onto a home for a very short period.  Those buyers should not buy and expect to make a profit.  It will not happen over the short term. I believe when the clock strikes and 2008 hits, we will return to a more frenetic market.  Come February or March, it may be more competitive when trying to buy a home.

Condo stats are coming, stay tuned!

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