» What Were The Chances of Selling Your Seattle/Eastside Home in August, 2009?

What Were The Chances of Selling Your Seattle/Eastside Home in August, 2009?

Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Activity August 2009

The chances of selling a home on the Eastside in August 2009 ranged from a low of 15% to a high of 28%, with an average 19% absorption rate. (The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month.)

Here are the real estate statistics for single family home sales activity on Seattle’s Eastside:

August, 2009 3604 homes for sale 683 homes sold 19% chance of selling.

July, 2009 3819 homes for sale 631 (now 538) homes sold* 19%(now 14%) chance of selling.*

August, 2008 4346 homes for sale 433 homes sold 9% chance of selling.

*Adjusted from previous month’s numbers to reflect the actual number of homes sold and closed. Some sales from each month fall apart and don’t close, hence a lower number of sold homes may be reported at a later date.

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(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You can see the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. If you look at the charts, you’ll notice the total number of homes for sale and the number of homes sold can vary slightly from the above chart. The information for the charts is gathered at slightly different times so can vary slightly. Regardless, the charts show the same trends.)

(click on city names for a chart showing the latest stats in the area)

How did August, 2009 stack up to August, 2008 in your neighborhood?

The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City

The chances of selling a home were 19%.

Median sales price decreased by 10% from $572,000 to $515,000.

The number of homes for sale declined by 22% and sales were up by 21% from last year.

West Redmond/East Bellevue

The chances of selling a home were 28%.

Median sales price decreased to $475,000 from $549,000, a decrease of 13.5%

The number of homes for sale dropped by 23% and sales were up by 12%.

South Bellevue

The chances of selling a home were 17%.

Median price decreased by 15% to $499,500 from $592,475.

The number of homes for sale dropped by 15% and sales were up 55%.

Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland

The chances of selling a home were 18%.

Median price was down to $425,000 from $478,062, an 11% decrease.

The number of homes for sale declined by 17% from last year and sales were up by 50%.

Kirkland

The chances of selling a home were 21%.

Median price decreased by 10.5%, from $649,950 to $581,919.

The number of homes for sale declined by 15% and sales were up by a whopping 83%.

West Bellevue

The chances of selling a home were 15%.

Median pricing decreased by 10% from $999,950 to $899,475.

The number of homes for sale decreased by 12% and sales increased by a truly whopping 129%.

Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation

The chances of selling a home were 21%

Median pricing decreased by 10% from $599,950 to $542,250.

The number of homes for sale decreased by 12% and sales increased by 27%.

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Thoughts on the August 2009 Seattle Eastside real estate market:

Is there a change in the Seattle-Eastside real estate market? You bet! The key indicator is homes are not only selling, but more homes in the high end are selling. This means that buyers in all price ranges are less afraid to go out and buy. This uptick in real estate sales is not just the result of first time buyers looking for the $8000 tax credit, but for home buyers in every price range.

Most eastside homes had 19% chance of selling. Nineteen out of 100 homes had offers last month and are now pending.
Home sales on Seattle’s Eastside were up 42% and prices were down 8.5% overall.

Several areas had a huge increase in the number of homes sold:

West Bellevue 129%

Kirkland 83%

South Bellevue 55%

Best odds of selling: once again it’s Redmond, near Microsoft, and East Bellevue with a 28% chance of a home selling.
Most difficult odds of selling: West Bellevue, with a 13% chance of selling a home. Yet, West Bellevue had the biggest sales increase from last year, a whopping 128% more homes sold this August than last year.
Last month the median sales price in Kirkland and West Bellevue both were up over July, 2008. Looking at August’s median pricing, every neighborhood experienced a decline in median pricing combined with a strong uptick in home sales.
If you look at the chart above, it’s clear the number of homes for sale is less than last year when the peak of homes for sale happened in July of 2008. I’m hoping this year we hit the peak of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside back in July, when 13,835 homes were for sale. So far, this is holding true and the number of homes for sale on Seattle’s eastside keeps dropping each month.
It’s still looking like a lot of home sales fail to close. There’s a high fallout rate with sales, as you can see from July’s numbers alone, almost a 100 home sales did not close! Given that originally 631 sales were reported for the month in July and 538 sales were reported a month later, 15% of July’s sales failed. This is a high number of failed sales and could be the result of inspections in which buyers and sellers do not agree, an appraisal that does not justify the sales price, lenders who do not package the loan properly or the great number of short sales that are out there.
Short sales are sales in which the selling price for a property is less than the price owed to the bank, so the seller is “short.” Many of these offers do not stay together because it often takes months for a short sale to get approved by the bank. There is no guarantee the bank will ever look at an offer or approve and accept it. I’ve heard that only 4% of the short sales actually closed in King County. Since there are a huge number on the market, if you are someone who’s willing to take a chance on a property, are willing to accept that your offer may never be looked at or accepted, then a short sale may be a way to go. However, since most buyers truly want to purchase a home and close on it, I would recommend NOT making offers on short sales.

Here’ s what the local news media, The Seattle PI and The Seattle Times reported about August real estate activity. The Times echoed my thoughts above as to the fact that the higher end of the real estate market has new life.

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