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What Were The Odds of Selling Your Seattle-Eastside Condo in July, 2010?
Seattle Eastside Condo Sales July 2010
(The absorption rate, the percentage of condos selling, is the number of condos for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of condos sold that month. So if the absorption rate or chance of selling is 10% that means out of 100 condos for sale, 10 received offers and sold.)
July, 2010 1552 condos for sale 144 condos sold 9% odds of selling.
June, 2010 1487 condos for sale 131 (was 154) condos sold 9% (was 10) % odds of selling.
May, 2010 1425 condos for sale 117 (was 125) condos sold 8% (was 13%) odds of selling.*
July, 2009 1441 condos for sale 159 condos sold, 11% odds of selling.
*Adjusted from previous month’s original numbers to reflect the actual number of condos sold and closed. Some of the sales originally reported last month failed and did not close. Some of the reasons sales fail are the buyer and seller don’t agree on the building inspection, the condo does not appraise for the sales price or the buyer’s financing does not come through.
Sales have clearly slowed down from April’s peak. This may be because many first time buyers rushed to buy a home while the tax credit was in place and not as many buyers are out there right now. It also could be because people are fearful of the future. It’s unfortunate as there are some good properties out there and great interest rates.
How Did July, 2010 Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Sales Stack Up In Your Neighborhood?
[googlemaps http://maps.google.com/maps?source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Seattle-eastside&sll=47.709762,-122.011414&sspn=0.310487,0.911865&ie=UTF8&split=1&radius=21.22&rq=1&ev=zo&hq=Seattle-eastside&hnear=&ll=47.709762,-122.011414&spn=0.310487,0.911865&t=h&output=embed&w=425&h=350]
How did July, 2009 stack up to July, 2010 in your neighborhood?
(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales.)
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 12.5%.
Median sales price increased from $525,000 to $539,950.
The number of homes for sale increased by 2% and sales were down by 24% from last year.
The odds of selling a home were 16%.
Median sales price dropped from $470,000 to $422,475.
The number of homes for sale increased by 8% and sales were down 27%.
The odds of selling a home were 16.5%.
Median price decreased from $617,000 to $599,475.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 16% and sales were UP by 5%.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 14%.
Median price dropped by 2%, from $460,000 to $449,950.
The number of homes for sale declined by 9% and sales were down by 13.5%.
The odds of selling a home were 15%.
Median price decreased to $549,900 from $599,000.
The number of homes for sale declined by 16.5% and sales were UP by 3%.
The odds of selling a home were 11.5%.
Median pricing was UP from $950,000 to $1,299,000.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 24% and sales decreased by 31%.
Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 17%
Median pricing increased from $499,000 to $548,000.
The number of homes for sale increased by 1% and sales decreased by 5%.
Although real estate numbers are mostly down on Seattle’s eastside, 3 areas, similar to last month, showed an increase in median prices while the others all showed a reduction. Most likely, this was a result of more high end sales than seen previously this year. Many of the first time buyers bought because of the tax credit, so there are fewer first time home buyers making entry level purchases.
The high end real estate market is performing better than it was earlier this year. In July, West Bellevue had a 37% increase in the median pricing, a direct result of the homes that sold that month. This number greatly influenced the trend in the eastside showing the median pricing to increase in July. Median pricing is a function of the actual homes that sell during that particular month.
So I’d recommend not getting too excited if the median pricing went up this past month in your neighborhood. It will be important to see if the trend continues and it’s not just because more high end homes are selling.
The number of home sales were down in almost all of the Seattle eastside neighborhoods, which follows a typical pattern for summer when people choose to do other things, like go on vacation, than look for a home. Slower sales may also be impacted by the fear about jobs and the economy.
What Were The Odds of Selling Your Seattle-Eastside Home in July, 2010?
Seattle-Eastside Residential Real Estate Sales, July 2010
The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in July, 2010 ranged from a low of 11.5% to a high of 17%, with an average 14% absorption rate.(The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in a month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month.)
July, 2010 3468 homes for sale 501 homes sold 14% odds of selling.
June, 2010 3360 homes for sale 475 (was 503) homes sold 14%(was 15%) odds of selling.*
May, 2010 3209 homes for sale 492 homes sold 15% odds of selling.*
July, 2009 3819 homes for sale 516 homes sold 13.5 % odds of selling.
June, 2009 3859 homes for sale 563 homes sold 15% odds of selling.
*Adjusted from previous month’s numbers to reflect the actual number of homes sold and closed. Each month some sales fall apart and don’t close. A lower number of home sales may be reported at a later date to show the actual number of sales that did close.
For the past few months, the absorption rate for all the Seattle-eastside areas has been in the teens, hovering around 13-15%. May, June, and July all had similar absorption rates. Since May of 2009, the number of homes that have sold each month has not varied all that much, with the exception of March and April of this year. March and April had higher sales because of the tax credit.
Where we see more of a difference is in the number of homes for sale on Seattle’s eastside. Last year there were 3819 homes for sale in July, 2009. This year there are 10% less homes on the market. But even with less homes on the market, the odds of selling are about the same.
We have the lowest interest rates since 1971. Plus, our Seattle eastside real estate market is clearly a buyers’ market again, since the absorption rate is so low. It’s very obvious when shown on a map of the area. I’ll post a map of the Seattle eastside showing where buyers and sellers markets are located later this week. The reality is, however, that most of the real estate markets are buyers’ markets right now.
So why are real estate sales so sluggish? My guess is the “fear factor.” People are still worried about the economy. Plus, with interest rates predicted to remain low for the foreseeable future, there’s also no sense of urgency to buy.
Why do you think the Seattle eastside real estate market is slower?
_____________________________________________________________
July, 2009 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to July, 2010:
- The average asking price of pending homes (recently sold homes) went from $558,397 to $573,617. (This does not show what the homes actually sold for.)
- This week, there were 14,414 King County homes (houses and condos) for sale.
- Two weeks ago may have been the peak of the number of homes for sale this year when 14,639 homes were on the market.
- Home sales on Seattle’s Eastside: down 13%.
- Number of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside: down 10%
Best odds of selling: Carnation and Redmond, from downtown to north and east, with 17% of the homes getting accepted offers. Ironically, last month this area had the worst odds of selling at 9%.
Worst odds of selling: West Bellevue, with 11.5% of the homes getting accepted offers.
Biggest increase in sales from last year: A 5% increase in South Bellevue home sales, which is the biggest increase.
Smallest increase in sales from last year: Kirkland, with a 3% increase. There were only two areas with an increase in the number of home sales on Seattle’s eastside.
Decline in real estate sales from last year: There was a decline in 5 out of the 7 Seattle-eastside areas with the largest decline in home sales in West Bellevue with a 31% decline in the number of homes sold.
The peak of homes for sale in 2008: July, 4370 homes.
The peak of homes for sale in 2009: June, 3859 homes.
The number of eastside homes for sale at the start of 2010: 2584 homes
The number of eastside homes for sale in July, 2010: 3468 homes.
Rate of home sales that failed and did not close: 6%
For a picture of King County sales, check out The Seattle Times. The headline states sales are down, but prices are up. Keep in mind the headline may not represent each area. Prices are up slightly in some areas, down in others, and sales are down in 5 out of 7 eastside areas.
Are People Still Moving In and Out of the Seattle Area?
Are people still moving into and out of Seattle? This is a very cool interactive map which shows you where people are coming from and also how many people are moving in and out of Seattle. You can click on cities and counties all over the country to see where people are moving. Pretty cool!
Seattle is #2 Of The Ten Best Places to Live Over the Next Decade
Seattle Rocks! Seattle is the second best place to live in the country, according to Kiplinger’s. It’s because we’re smart!
Seattle Sunset From Across Lake Washington
Kiplinger’s study had an important tenet when evaluating cities. The top cities included smart people, great ideas, and collaboration.
After researching and visiting our 2010 Best Cities, it became clear that the innovation factor has three elements. Mark Emmert, president of the University of Washington in Seattle, put his finger on two of them: smart people and great ideas. But we’d argue that it’s the third element — collaboration — that really supercharges a city’s economic engine. When governments, universities and business communities work together, the economic vitality is impressive.
This is a hub of innovation as the home of Microsoft, Starbucks, Amazon, and Expedia are among many strong innovators in the Seattle area. The economy, the schools, the natural beauty with lakes, mountains, and Puget Sound
Mt. Rainier, the Bremerton Ferry, and Puget Sound
are all draws to the area.
Did I mention Seattle is within driving distance to three national parks? Mt. Rainier, Olympic National Park, and The North Cascades National Park.
Did I also mention that the fresh food and produce available in the N0rthwest is fabulous?
Fresh Berries at Pike Place Market
Bellevue, WA=Great Schools, But Is It Affordable?
It’s ironic that the articles about schools linked below were recently published, as last week I met with a past client who raised this very issue. My last post commented on home values and school systems.
My client bought his first home from me 5 years ago. It was a new home in a city with an excellent school system, but not the top school system on Seattle’s eastside. Now that his daughter is 5 years old, he’s looking at the different school systems even more closely. He’s done his homework and checked out such websites as Great Schools and Education. com. He’s read about the different school systems in the area and narrowed his choice down to the Bellevue, WA Schools. The Bellevue Schools have been honored in a variety of places. The high schools listed are in Newsweek’s Top 100 list and US News’ list.
But is the Bellevue School district affordable? My client wanted to know. He had questions about what he could afford and find in Bellevue. He owns a 5 year old home with 2300+ square feet out in Sammamish.
According to the article, Bellevue is not an affordable town. (Affordable is a relative term and each area will have a different affordability scale.) No matter where you live and what the affordability is of homes in your area, the rule of thumb is if a home is in a desirable school district, then it’s probably more expensive than a similar home in a less desirable district.
But even in some expensive school districts, prices can vary.
So what types of homes and prices can you find in Bellevue, WA? Here’s a snapshot of a typical week’s homes for sale during a week in July, 2010, which is representative of the housing available in Bellevue.
In Bellevue, homes can be found ranging from the high $200’s to multi-million dollar homes. If you divide Bellevue into areas, it’s easier to see what you can get in each area of Bellevue. Bellevue is divided into three main areas, West, East, and South Bellevue.
West Bellevue
The home of Bill Gates Jr, Charles Simonyi and other billionaires and uber-millionaires has some of the most expensive real estate in the country. (West Bellevue, also includes the towns of Hunts Point, Yarrow Point, and Medina, some of the priciest locations in the state and the country.)
Here’s a sampling of the homes available this week in West Bellevue:
Under $500,000- 4 homes
some of which are truly lot value with small, older homes. One home is a remodeled, most need to be remodeled and are small.
$500,000-$1,000,000- 35 homes
Ranging from homes built in the mid 50’s to the 60’s with 1400-2000 square feet to larger homes with a huge variety of square footage. Most of the homes were built from 1950-to the end of the century. Newer homes in this price range are generally smaller.
$1,000,000+ 66 homes
often with gracious appointments, lush grounds, views or waterfront. There’s an abundance of styles, ages, and square footage available. These homes are among the priciest homes in the area with a significant number of multimillion dollar homes.
East Bellevue
Under $300,000 10 homes
older ranch style homes with square footage usually around 1500 square feet. Some homes are bank owned, some in need of remodeling.
$300-$500,000 105 homes
(notice how many more homes are available in this price range than the other Bellevue neighborhoods. Here’s where you can find more home for your money and in less expensive neighborhoods)
$500-$1,000,000 79 homes
You’ll find large ramblers, 2 story hoomes, and all other styles. the homes in East Bellevue in this price range are usually terrific homes. East Bellevue is the most affordable part of Bellevue to find a home.
$1,000,000+ 18 homes
some with waterfront on Lake Sammamish, others are new construction.
South Bellevue
Under $300,000 4 homes One is a short sale, 1 is partially remodeled, and two are older smaller homes.
$300-$500,000 33 homes
Ranging from small rambler (ranch style) homes of 1000 square feet up to two story homes built in the 1960-1980’s with 2800 square feet. There are mid-entry and tri-level homes along with one and two story homes in this price range. Mid-entry and tri-level homes will be the most affordable and offer the most square footage for the money. If you want a home with some size and in good condition, you’ll be spending closer to $500,000. The lower end of this price range buys you a small home.
$500-$1,000,000 57 homes
Here you’ll find larger one level homes with 3 and 4 bedrooms. Two story homes built after 1980 with square footage ranging up to 3000+. You’ll also find large mid-entry and tri-level homes.
$1,000,000+ 37 homes
Upscale neighborhoods with drop dead gorgeous views of Seattle, Bellevue, the mountains, and lakes abound with homes ranging from mid-century modern ramblers on large lots to all styles of homes with views and lots of square footage. Many of the homes were built after 1980. Homes can be found with substantial square footage, high end amenities, and excellent quality and finish work.
The most affordable part of Bellevue is East Bellevue, although there are affordable houses all over. However, what you can get for your money is vastly different in each of these areas as you can see from the above. There are options, though, and everyone has to decide the value of the schools in relation to the type of home available.
Are there great schools in other parts of the Seattle-Eastside? Yes, if you look at the lists above, other schools in Lake Washington School District, as an example pop up. Woodinville High School is another great school. These are not the only great schools. There are more out there on the eastside. Bellevue has some affordable housing, but some home buyers may want newer or larger homes for the money and may need to look at other Seattle-eastside cities.
The beauty of the Seattle-eastside is there are great schools and some great housing all over. There are options.
Good Schools=Good Real Estate Values
Looking for a home and want a good neighborhood which maintains its value over time? Even though prices have dropped considerably and homes are more affordable, it’s important to investigate everything that could add value to your home purchase. No matter whether you’re a single person, have a family or are an empty nester, look at the reputation of the local school system. It can add or detract from the value of your home and its ultimate price tag when you go to sell. It’s something to think about here on the eastside as we have many good schools in several school districts, but the Bellevue Schools come to mind first, since they’ve been mentioned both in Newsweek and US News.
Check out local city websites and school system websites. It’s so easy today to google a specific school system and find out all kinds of information.
When housing markets go south, “areas with exceptional schools tend to hold their value better than the market overall,” says Michael Sklarz, president of Collateral Analytics, a Honolulu-based firm that specializes in real estate data analysis.
From Sarah Max of The Wall Street Journal:
State assessments, independent ratings from websites like GreatSchools and Education.com and annual magazine rankings of America’s top high schools have not only made it easy for parents to factor school test scores and parent-teacher ratios into their buying decisions, they’ve cemented the relationship between home prices and school quality.
But nothing comes without trade offs. Because good schools add dollars to the cost of homes, it could mean a smaller or older home or a smaller lot. The decision to purchase the bigger or newer home in a less desirable district has to be weighed with the options for a home available in the better school district. For some people, the bigger house works better and is more important. For others, the quality of the schools themselves may be more important than the house.
What Were The Odds of Selling Your Seattle-Eastside Condo in June, 2010?
Seattle-Eastside Condo Sales, June 2010
(The absorption rate, the percentage of condos selling, is the number of condos for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of condos sold that month. So if the absorption rate or chance of selling is 10% that means out of 100 condos for sale, 10 received offers and sold.)
June, 2010 1487 condos for sale 154 condos sold 10 % odds of selling.
May, 2010 1425 condos for sale 117 (was 125) condos sold 8% (was 13%) odds of selling.*
April, 2010 1437 condos for sale 281 (was 316) condos sold 19.5%(was 22%) odds of selling.*
June, 2009 1491 condos for sale 161 condos sold, 11% odds of selling.
*Adjusted from previous month’s original numbers to reflect the actual number of condos sold and closed. Some of the sales originally reported last month failed and did not close. Some of the reasons sales fail are the buyer and seller don’t agree on the building inspection, the condo does not appraise for the sales price or the buyer’s financing does not come through.
In this month’s post I’ve included the condo real estate statistics for April to show the sharp contrast with May and June of this year. Seattle-eastside condo sales dropped like a stone from the high of 281 in April to 117 in May and 154 in June. We’re seeing a lull in Seattle area condo sales, which is partly seasonal as people are out playing in the sunny weather.
But have condo buyers forgotten there are still good deals after the tax credit? Don’t forget, there’s a huge number of condos available on Seattle’s eastside as we’re at the high point in Seattle-eastside condos for sale so far this year. There are some great choices out there. Plus, the added bonus is interest rates are at a 30 year low.
For a picture of King County sales, check out The Seattle Times.
There's No "Red" on The June, 2010 Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Map
There’s no “red” on the Seattle-eastside real estate map, which means there were no seller’s markets in June, 2010. The Seattle-eastside real estate market has turned “yellow” for a market balanced between buyers and sellers, and “green.” “Green” on the map indicates a buyer’s market. It’s not surprising to me that certain areas stay as a balanced real estate market longer than some others.
Which Seattle-eastside areas have remained stronger as a balanced market between buyers and sellers?
East Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft (530 on the map)
It’s traditionally one of the strongest areas, because homes are so close to jobs at Microsoft. The neighborhoods abut the main Microsoft campus and are an easy commute to downtown Bellevue, the economic hub of the eastside. Plus, housing can be found from the $200’s and $300’s to million+ dollar waterfront. Housing in many neighborhoods is in the affordable range for the area.
South Bellevue and Issaquah (500 on the map)
The area south of I-90 is a big drawing card for Seattle commuters. Again, there’s a variety of home styles and ages, good schools, and a fabulous commute either to eastside economic centers or downtown Seattle.
Sammamish, Issaquah, Preston, Fall City, and North Bend. (540 on the map)
Another area that’s consistently one of the strongest is the plateau areas of Sammamish, Issaquah, Preston, Fall City, and North Bend. The different eastside cities here have a huge variety of homes from estates to acreage to newer construction and town homes. Good schools and some good values keep the area strong.
King & Snohomish County Real Estate Maps, 6-30-10
There are still great homes and condos out there to buy and interest rates are at historic lows. The loss of the tax credit may not make much of a difference when calculating the savings in monthly payments over time.
How Did June, 2010 Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Sales Stack Up in Your Neighborhood
[googlemaps http://maps.google.com/maps?source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Seattle-eastside&sll=47.709762,-122.011414&sspn=0.310487,0.911865&ie=UTF8&split=1&radius=21.22&rq=1&ev=zo&hq=Seattle-eastside&hnear=&ll=47.709762,-122.011414&spn=0.310487,0.911865&t=h&output=embed&w=425&h=350]
How did June, 2009 stack up to June, 2010 in your neighborhood?
(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales.)
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 16%.
Median sales price increased from $499,950 to $525,000.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 10% and sales were down by 27% from last year.
The odds of selling a home were 23%.
Median sales price dropped from $499,950 to $482,500.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 4% and sales were UP by 3%.
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median price decreased from $610,000 to $599,994.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 15% and sales were down by 3%.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 14%.
Median price remained essentially equal to last year, $419,950 to $419,973 this year.
The number of homes for sale declined by 3% and sales were down by 23%.
The odds of selling a home were 13%.
Median price increased to $624,950 from $596,925.
The number of homes for sale declined by 19% and sales were down by 28%.
The odds of selling a home were 14%.
Median pricing was UP from $849,000 to $890,000.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 24% and sales decreased by 25.5%.
Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 9%
Median pricing decreased from $529,950 to $474,950.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 4% and sales decreased by 42%.
Although real estate numbers are mostly down on Seattle’s eastside, 3 areas showed an increase in median prices and one area remained similar in pricing to last June. West Bellevue, the Sammamish plateau areas, and Woodinville, North Kirkland, Bothell and Kenmore had a 5% increase in sales prices. Last month, West Bellevue was the only area with an increase in median pricing over last year and that was at 17%.
The three other Seattle-eastside neighborhoods experienced a reduction in sales prices. These areas are South Bellevue, Redmond and Bellevue near Microsoft, and the downtown area of Redmond.
The number of homes for sale is near the highest for this year, but still 11% less than the number of homes for sale on the eastside last year, so that’s a good thing.
I expect the numbers to be down over the next month or two as summer is one of the slower times in Eastside real estate. Traditionally, people take a lot of time to enjoy the sun and the outdoors, since it is so fleeting.
