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Has a Positive Trend Started in Seattle-Eastside Real Estate?

The positive trend in Seattle’s eastside real estate continued from December, 2010 to January’s sales.  Maybe the uptick in December was not an anomaly?  We’ll still need to wait and see.

This, again,  is what the Seattle Times said after December’s home sales numbers were released:

• Buyers are climbing off the fence, even if they suspect prices will continue slipping, because they fear interest rates will rise and wipe out any savings.

There was a lot more “climbing off the fence” in January.  Truthfully, the number of sales hasn’t increased all that much, but the number of homes the buyers have to choose from is a lot less.  It’s that old law of supply and demand, which is what we call the absorption rate.*

There are fewer homes to choose from, so the good ones are grabbed up.   That’s what feels different. The “fence sitters’ are jumping on the good home buys.  Some homes that hit the market are gone in a matter of days. The homes that are priced right and show well are the homes that sell quickly.

Since the last two months have had stronger absorption rates, I hesitate to call it a trend just yet, but I’ll keep you posted.  I can tell you that the number of buyers looking at homes, multiple offers (gasp), and the absorption rate (see below) have all increased since the first of the year.

Seattle eastside real estate sales

Seattle Eastside Real Estate Sales-January 2011

The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in January ranged from 18% to 28%, with an average 19.5% absorption rate.*  Most home sellers on Seattle’s eastside had a 19/100 chance of selling their home last month.

*(The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month.  If the absorption rate is 10%, then 10 out of the 100 homes for sale sold that month.)

January, 2011          2392  homes for sale    467  homes sold                 19% odds of selling.

December, 2010      2499 homes for sale    369 (was 397) homes sold     15%  (was 16%) odds of selling.**

January, 2010          2588 homes for sale   460 homes sold                 18%  odds of selling.

**(Some home sales fail because of the buyer financing or an inspection.  The number of sales is updated when we find out the actual number of homes that sold during that time.)


January, 2011 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to January, 2010:

  • The average  price of pending homes (recently sold homes) went from $525,462 to $495,080, a 6% decrease in pricing.
  • On 2-14-11, there were 10,530 King County homes (houses and condos) for sale.
  • The number of homes sold on Seattle’s Eastside: down 11% from last year.
  • Number of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside: The number of homes for sale in January, 2011 was 7% less than January, 2010.

Best odds of selling: East Bellevue/Redmond around Microsoft.

Worst odds of selling: Sammamish/Issaquah/North Bend/ Fall City.

Decline in home sales from last year: Three out of the 7 Seattle-eastside areas had fewer sales, South Bellevue, Kirkland, and Sammamish/Issaquah/North Bend/ Fall City.

What’s happening with real estate in your neighborhood?