The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in May, 2010 ranged from a low of 12% to a high of 20%, with an average 16.5% absorption rate. Contrast this with April, 2010 odds with a low of 20% to a high of 35%, averaging a 27% absorption rate.
May’s numbers look more like May of last year than they do of April of this year. This month may mark the back to reality of Seattle-eastside real estate or maybe not. We’ll need to see how the rest of the year plays out as so many people rushed to buy and sell before the end of the tax credit. There are still buyers who want to buy and the sellers who need to sell, although this may be a time of adjustment.
(The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month.)
May, 2010 3209 homes for sale 529 homes sold 16.5% odds of selling.
April, 2010 3084 homes for sale 770 (was 847) homes sold 25%(was 27.5%) odds of selling.*
May, 2009 3841 homes for sale 547 homes sold 14% odds of selling.
*Adjusted from previous month’s numbers to reflect the actual number of homes sold and closed. Each month some sales fall apart and don’t close. A lower number of home sales may be reported at a later date to show the actual number of sales that did close.
May, 2009 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to May, 2010:
- We are back to reality with Seattle-Eastside home sales. The tax stimulus pushed both home buyers and sellers to act more quickly this year, so the high number of home sales in April may have contributed to the drop in number of eastside home sales in May.
- The end of the tax stimulus had a greater impact on lower priced homes compared to higher priced homes.
- The average list price of properties that are pending went from $512,060 to $646,545. This is an unprecedented change month to month.
- As of this past week, there are 13,615 King County homes (houses and condos) for sale.
- The median price was down by .9%, an insignificant drop.
- Home sales on Seattle’s Eastside: down 7% The first down month in 2010.
- Number of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside: down 17%
Best odds of selling: Sammamish plateau areas of Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City with the best odds of selling as 20.5% of the Sammamish homes got offers.
Worst odds of selling: Woodinville, Bothell, Kenmore, Duvall, and North Kirkland with 12% of the homes getting accepted offers.
Biggest increase in sales from last year: A small 6% increase in Sammamish home sales was the highest increase in Seattle-eastside real estate sales. Quite a contrast to the double and triple digit increases we’ve seen the last few months. As an example, there was 102% increase in the number of Kirkland homes sold in April, 2010 when compared to April, 2009.
Smallest increase in sales from last year: Kirkland home sales increased by 3%
Decline in real estate sales from last year: There was a decline in 5 out of the 7 Seattle-eastside areas, unlike the last few months when every eastside neighborhood experienced an increase in home sales. Redmond and Carnation had the largest decline in home sales with an 18% decline in the number of homes sold.
The peak of homes for sale in 2008: July, 4370 homes.
The peak of homes for sale in 2009: June, 3859 homes.
The number of eastside homes for sale at the start of 2010: 2584 homes
The number of eastside homes for sale now: 3209 homes.
Rate of home sales that failed and did not close: 10%
Seattle Eastside real estate tends to slow down a bit when the sun comes out, which hopefully is any day now! The number of home sales could remain on the lower side in the near future for two reasons. One is the slow down after the tax credit rush which we are now seeing and the upcoming (think positively) sunny weather and summer vacations. People in Seattle like to play outside in the sun. There are a number of people who are “gearing up” to make a move, so we may see stronger eastside real estate sales when summer comes to an end.
Ironically, when people ask me when is the best time time to sell a home, I tell them spring and fall are usually the best times. However, homes sell each month and the ones that show the best and are priced competitively will be the ones to get the offer.