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How Was The Seattle Eastside Condo Market in December 2011?
Seattle Eastside condo inventory dipped to 2011’s lowest point in December, 2011.
The year began and ended with under 1000 condos for sale.
The number of available eastside condos peaked in June with well over 1100 condos for sale. The peak was never really much of a peak when we look at the peak numbers in previous years. In the past, the number of condos could easily top out at 1500 for sale. In October 2010, there were 1375 condos for sale, and that was not even the peak month for 2010.
As most people know, condos have been hit harder than single family homes by the economic downturn. Prices are down quite a bit, so it’s good to see 2011 end with fewer condos for sale on the eastside. There’s a big drop in value for condos, about 18% for the year, but the reality is the lower prices are helping to move some of the supply.
With fewer condos for sale and a fresh start with the new year, I expect to see condos sell well. The economy is doing better locally with Boeing, Amazon, Microsoft, and others in a hiring mode. Prices will continue to stay low, but with the huge decline in the number of properties for sale, prices should remain stable this year.
There were 822 condos for sale in December, with 138 of them receiving offers. The average market time was 135 days, a shorter market time than last December’s 156 days. Condos sold within 90% of the original asking price.
Median pricing is down overall, but the median sales price increased during December by 7% from $224,000 in December, 2010 to $239,000. Remember median pricing reflects what sold that particular month. This doesn’t mean pricing was up 7% for the year, but what sold in December, 2011 was slightly more expensive than what sold in December, 2010.
Our condo supply is usually the highest in the summer. The bell curve shape for the number of condos for sale on the above chart is the typical pattern for most years, regardless of how the real estate market performs. Condos do sell well in the summer, but competition is much fiercer. If you’re thinking of selling your eastside condo, it’s best to get on the market in the early spring to get ahead of the competition.
Since we have micro-real estate markets in Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland and the other eastside cities, please contact us if you have questions about your complex or your condo’s value.
Have a great 2012!
2011 Ends With The Fewest Homes for Sale in 4 Years on Seattle’s Eastside
- How Many Homes Sold on Seattle’s Eastside in December, 2011?
We have to go back before the bubble burst to February 2007 to find so few homes for sale on Seattle’s eastside! There’s a healthy number of homes for sale on the eastside, 1897 at the close of December, so there are good choices for buyers. With fewer homes on the market, it spurs the competition among buyers for the best homes and should help stabilize prices. In some neighborhoods, there aren’t any homes for sale right now.
Pricing is becoming more affordable for a new set of buyers who are coming to the market for the first time. A mortgage payment that would have bought a home for $500,000 in 2008, would now cover the purchase of a home in the mid-$600,000s!
Here’s a snapshot of Seattle-Eastside real estate in December, 2011 compared to 2010:
- 24% fewer homes were on the market.
- The time it took to sell a home went from 129 days to 111 days this past December.
- Sales prices were 8% below the seller’s original asking price, while in 2010 they averaged 10% below the asking price.
- Eighteen percent of the homes for sale this December received offers and sold, while only 14% received offers in 2010.
- 338 homes sold in 2011, while in December 2010, 351 homes received offers.
The actual number of homes sold did not change much, which, surprisingly, is almost always the case. The difference was not in the number of sales, but in the number of homes for sale. There were 597 fewer homes for sale at the end of 2011 than 2010. When there are fewer homes for sale, there are fewer “for sale” signs out in neighborhoods. The “sold” signs also pop up a lot faster.
When the supply increases, there’s increased competition and homes take longer to sell. Most people think homes are not selling because there are more real estate signs and they stay posted in yards for a longer time. This is not the case. Homes are selling, but there’s just more competition which makes it feel as if the market is slower.
The real difference then is the supply, the number of homes for sale. If there’s a smaller supply the market will seem faster because these homes will sell faster. If there is a larger supply, there is more competition and the market will seem slower because it takes longer to sell a home. In both markets, though, the number of homes that sell does not vary all that much. It is the Supply that varies and changes what we think is happening in the real estate market. The above chart confirms this as you can see the supply changes far more dramatically than the number of sales, which are shown at the bottom of each month.
In my next piece, I’ll talk about how Seattle-eastside real estate should play out for the coming year. Have a great 2012 and hope you are able to make it through this week’s snow.
Since real estate is neighborhood specific, if you’d like more information about your home, contact us, we’re here to help.
*The numbers are a result of the real estate sales activity that happened that particular month only. In order to see a trend, it is important to look at a number of months together. One month is only indicative of that particular month’s sales.
Sellers in the Seattle Area and On the Eastside Start Your Engines!
At the start of 2012, there are less than 8000 homes for sale in King County! Compare this number to the start of the last three years:
- 2011: 10,008 homes for sale
- 2010: 9726 homes for sale
- 2009: 11,363 homes for sale
The old law of supply and demand is at work here and is starting to favor sellers more than it has for years. There’s a 3.6 months supply of homes for sale in King County. This means there’s a balanced market between buyers and sellers with the market tipping towards the sellers. (Less than 3 months of inventory indicates a sellers market.)
On Seattle’s Eastside, the market is looking really strong, particularly around the Microsoft area of East Bellevue and Redmond. The number of homes for sale has dropped dramatically.
What should buyers and sellers expect in the first quarter of 2012 on Seattle’s eastside?
Fabulous interest rates.
A more positive real estate market.
The market will continue to be affected by short sales and foreclosures.
Home prices are not up nor will they go up. There is no indication on the immediate horizon that indicates anything about price increases. On the flip side, the lack of supply of homes for sale helps to stabilize the market and prices. Fewer homes means more competition, which helps pricing. The real estate market will vary neighborhood by neighborhood. One size does not fit all.
Location matters. Homes close to economic centers that offer a good commute, good schools, and good amenities will be more in demand.
Condition matters. Homes should go on the market in the best possible condition to command the best price.
Some home sales will be good deals depending on the available competition, the condition of the home, and the seller’s motivation.
Some homes will sell for full price, in a matter of days, and with multiple offers This, too, will depend on the same factors mentioned in my previous statement.
It is important to know your area. Buyers and sellers should both be aware of the competition, pricing, and condition of nearby homes to determine the value of a specific home.
Homes need to be priced right or they will not sell. I heard a seller say the other day, “I’m not going to give away the farm.” If you, as a home seller, have far more money into your home than it’s worth and you have no interest or are financially unable to price your home to meet the market, then this is not be the time to sell your home.
Gee, it sounds like a normal real estate market to me! What do you see happening in your market place?
How Was The Seattle-Eastside Condo Market in November, 2011?
Seattle Eastside Condo Sales Through November, 2011
There were more condo sales on the eastside with 156 sales over last year’s 125! There also were 21% fewer condos on the market than in 2010. More sales and fewer condos for sale is a good thing!
There were 867 condos for sale in November, with 156 of them receiving offers. Average market time was 118 days, one of the shortest market times of the year. Condos sold within 91% of the original asking price.
The median sales price declined by 11% from $250,000 to $233,000. Remember, though, this number includes median prices for all condos, including bank foreclosures and short sales.
Is this decline a true measure of the marketplace?
- The sales numbers for November only reflect the sales that happened last month. Looking at several months of activity will give us a more accurate read on the market, so it will be important to watch the activity over the next few months.)
- Distressed property sales bring the overall median pricing down.
Real estate, including condos has become more affordable because of the drop in value. This is the reality of the situation and is a boon to buyers who are hoping to make a move.
How are condos selling in your area?
Was There Any "Good" in November’s Real Estate News on Seattle’s Eastside?
How Many Homes Sold on Seattle's Eastside in November, 2011?
If you read the news about Seattle real estate, it could make you crazy! It’s hard to determine what’s true and what is hype. There’s some tough news that dominates and then there is some news that is actually good. You know how it is, bad news always travels faster than good news, no matter what the topic. Our real estate news is a mixed bag, but it’s good to know it’s not all bad news. So let’s deal with the “bad” news first, since that seems to be most people’s hot button. And, by the way, if you read beyond the headlines, it may not be as bad as it seems.
True, our prices are down. That’s the elephant in the room. The “king” of the bad news. There is no getting around it. But if you look at the pricing issue more closely, it’s not as dire as it seems. Take out the distressed sales and prices for individual home sellers are down, but not as much.
• Bank-owned houses accounted for 20 percent of all King County sales in November, up from 14 percent a year earlier. Those houses sold for a median price of $177,000, down 18 percent from $216,000 in November 2010.
• The median price of short-sales houses dropped 17 percent, from $305,000 to $260,000.
• But other, “nondistressed” sales saw a much smaller price decline — 2.5 percent, from $399,000 to $389,000.*
Prices are down, but depending on the area, not as badly as one would think. The eastside is one of the areas where it is not as bad because people are still moving here for jobs and buying homes. If you look at the chart above, over 400 homes have sold on Seattle’s eastside each month this year. This November saw higher sales than last November.
The good news for Seattle-eastside real estate:
- 24% fewer homes were on the market in November this year than in 2010.
- The time it takes to sell a home went from 106 days last November to 60 days this November.
- Sales prices on average were just 4% below the seller’s original asking price this year, while last year they averaged 7% below the asking price.
- Twenty-nine percent of the homes for sale this past November received offers and sold, while only 19% received offers in 2010
- There’s no getting around that, but with less homes on the market, it spurs the competition among buyers for the best homes.
- Pricing is becoming more affordable for a new set of buyers who are coming to the market for the first time.
Truthfully, the actual number of homes sold did not change all that much. Last year 435 homes sold. This year 458 sold. The difference? There was much more competition last year because there were 342 more homes on the market.
So remember, look at all the facts, not just the headlines when talking about real estate. Review the data that applies to your specific neighborhood to make a decision about the market.
What’s happening in your neighborhood? Is there any good news mixed in with all the negativity about the real estate market?
*The numbers are a result of the real estate sales activity that happened that particular month only. In order to see a trend, it is important to look at a number of months together. One month is only indicative of that particular month’s sales.
You Snooze, You Lose, in This Seattle Eastside Real Estate Market
Brooks and I just sold a home in Redmond which had multiple offers. A contract was in hand, when the very next day I received phone calls from both an agent and a prospective buyer who wanted to see the home. They were a day late. It was gone. It was sold.
Here on the eastside, the market is doing well for the good homes, but not for all homes. These are the homes that are the best of the competition in terms of price, condition, style, floor plan and location.
One reason why the good homes are selling with multiple offers:
Less than 9000 properties are for sale in King County, for the first time in years. Supply is dwindling fast. If you compare the number of homes for sale with this time last year, 3000 fewer homes are on the market. As the year heads to a close, more sellers will take their homes off the market.
I expect to see December and January be good markets for sellers because of the decrease in competition. Quality homes will go fast, and possibly with multiple offers.
Does this mean it’s a bad market for buyers? No, there are still a lot of good homes for sale. Plus, it’s the most affordable market we’ve had in the Seattle area 17 years. With the lower interest rates, a mortgage is starting to rival rental costs.
So if you snooze, you can lose. Do you homework. Determine what’s most important to you. Is it the location, is it the good floor plan or a combination of many factors? Know the prices of homes in the area. Learn what’s selling and for what price. Know your wants and needs, study the market by visiting homes, and learn what sells well in the area.
If you do all these things. You won’t snooze and lose. You’ll know which homes work best for you and which are the best values. You can then jump in and buy a good home and not lose.
Was There Really a Decline In Seattle Eastside Real Estate Pricing in October, 2011?
Seattle Eastside Real Estate Sales-October, 2011
Yes, Virginia, there was a decline in median pricing on Seattle’s eastside in October. The Seattle media got everyone a little nervous about real estate when it stated there had been a 15% y-o-y price drop in King County real estate prices from October of 2010 to 2011. I talked with several clients who were speaking doom and gloom about the eastside real estate market based on the news stories. I suggested they look at the true numbers for the eastside, not the entire county. The article discussed all of King County, which includes areas that are not doing as well as the eastside. Seattle and the eastside cities, such as Bellevue, Kirkland, and Redmond, are the shining stars of King County real estate. If you look near the bottom of the article, it states the decline in eastside real estate prices measured in the single digits, not 15%.
The decline on the eastside depends on what you were looking at when comparing the numbers. Median sales pricing declined by 9% from last year, but the average sold prices increased from $602.000 to $619,000. It’s more of a mixed bag, although no home owner likes to see any sort of a decline.
Why the decline in median sales pricing? Here are some possible reasons:
- Jumbo loan rates have gone up, limiting the number of buyers who can buy at the higher end of the market.
- Distressed sales take up a large portion of the home sales all over the county. Distressed sales, short sales and foreclosures, usually sell for less than market value, thus causing the median pricing to drop.
- Lastly, the numbers you see here are a result of the real estate sales activity that happened that particular month only. In order to see a trend, it is important to look at a number of months together. One month is only indicative of that particular month’s sales.
Remember real estate is hyperlocal and North King and South King County are different real estate markets than Seattle’s eastside. In one of my next posts, I’ll look at the eastside real estate market even more closely and show the hottest and coolest selling areas.
Now that we have that issue of the decline in median pricing examined more closely, let’s take a look at what happened with eastside real estate in October. There were 24% fewer homes on the market this October than last and 22% more homes sold than in 2010. There were also 8% fewer homes on the market than in September of this year. Sales increased by 22% from last year and by 11% from September of this year.
Most home sold within 97 days and for about 92% of the original asking price. Sellers had a 23% chance of getting their homes sold last month. These are strong numbers, much stronger than October of 2010.
I’ll be watching the sales trend over the next couple of months. I expect to see fewer homes on the market and fewer sales as we approach the holidays. But will median pricing decline? What do you think?
Seattle Eastside Condo Sales Keep Popping!
Seattle-Eastside Condo Sales through September, 2011
Seattle-eastside condo sales were still hot in September. Twenty-one percent of the condos for sale got offers for the third month in a row! There’s less for sale this month than in August and fewer condos actually sold, but the odds of selling were exactly the same. It’s exciting to see the sales numbers for the year keep zooming past last year’s sales. This year 70% more condos sold on the eastside than last year! This good news was coupled with 31% fewer condos on the market than in 2010.
There were 992 condos for sale in September, with 203 of them receiving offers. Average market time was 125 days vs. 151 days in September 2010.
What’s unique about this past month is only one eastside condo sale failed. Last month I reported 213 condo sales. Now it looks like only one sale failed and 212 of them stayed together! This presents a good, solid month of sales as typically up to 10% of the sales can fail.
Sales fail for many reasons. A condo may not pass inspection or an appraisal. The buyer may not get financing or the condo complex itself may not fit financing guidelines. This could be because there could be too many renters occupying units or there could be a pending lawsuit against the association. Situations such as this could affect the buyer’s ability to obtain a loan, even if the buyer is well qualified to buy. When obtaining financing for a condo, the condo and the association must also “qualify” in order for the loan to be approved.
How are condos selling in your area? Are you seeing problems with buyers obtaining financing?
Which Seattle Eastside City had the Fastest Real Estate Sales in September 2011?
Aubrey Cohen wrote an article about the fastest selling neighborhoods in Seattle, which prompted me to write this post about the fastest selling neighborhoods on Seattle’s eastside. What happens in Seattle, doesn’t just stay in Seattle, it also happens here on the Eastside!
Homes in East Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft sold the fastest on Seattle’s eastside in September. Not only did these homes sell more quickly, in 69 days, but out of the 204 homes for sale, 51 got offers. These means that 25% of the homes in the area sold in September, among the best odds on Seattle’s eastside. The odds of selling a home in the Woodinville, Bothell areas also stood at 25%, which means September was one of the best months to sell a home in those cities.
Why do homes in East Bellevue and Redmond sell more quickly? Because they’re close to employment centers and transportation and have a broader range of more affordable housing. With the main Microsoft campus in Redmond and on the border of Bellevue, there’s a huge number of jobs right in the area. In addition, there’s easier freeway and bus access to Seattle than in the outlying suburbs.
West Bellevue is the most expensive area on the eastside, although it’s proximity to Seattle, schools, and housing make it the premier location on the eastside. The higher price point in the area means fewer buyers can afford West Bellevue, which increases the market time. Longer market time here is a function of pricing, not desirability.
Why is market time important? It’s one indication of the desirability and affordability of an area and both are key to future growth and appreciation. People like to live in convenient areas with good schools and affordable housing. (Remember affordability is relative to each area of the country.)
The cities below are grouped together to follow our MLS areas (multiple listing service) and shows how our statistical information is reported.
Which Seattle-eastside city had the fastest selling homes?
1. Redmond/East Bellevue
The odds of selling a home were 25%.*
Median sales price decreased (y-o-y)** to $503,000 from $560,000.
204 homes were for sale
A total of 51 homes sold.
Days on the market: 69
2. Kirkland
The odds of selling a home was 21%.
Median price increased from $516,000 to $626,000.
270 homes were for sale.
A total of 57 homes sold.
Days on Market: 87
3. South Bellevue/Issaquah
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median price decreased from $533,000 to $529,000.
362 homes were for sale.
A total of 65 homes sold.
Days on market: 88
3 (tie). Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 25%.
Median price was down from $415,000 to $380,000.
558 homes were for sale.
A total of 139 homes sold.
Days on Market: 88
4. The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 19%.
Median sales price increased from $486,000 to $500,000.
There were 714 homes for sale.
A total of 137 homes sold.
Days on the market: 90
5. Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 19%
Median pricing increased from $541,000 to $580,000.
321 homes were for sale.
A total of 62 homes sold.
Days on Market: 100
5. West Bellevue
The odds of selling a home were 19%.
Median pricing decreased from $956,000 to $936,000.
164 homes were for sale.
A total of 31 homes sold.
Days on Market: 127
Overall, market time is excellent in all of the eastside cities. As I mentioned above, Seattle-eastside real estate is one of the bright spots in the country. Companies in the area are hiring and people continue to want to live here because of the quality of life, the job market, and good schools.
If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact either Brooks or me.
*(The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)
** (y-o-y) median pricing is comparing year over year numbers.
The Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Market Feels Good!
Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Sales through September, 2011
Seattle’s eastside real estate market was very steady in September, 2011. It’s not dramatic with the highs and lows of the recent past, which is refreshing, plus eastside real estate sales are moving and moving well. It looks as if the peak of real estate sales for the year was back in May, when 24% of the available homes got offers. However, in September overall sales dropped only slightly, to 21%. The sales average of 21% means out of the 2713 homes for sale, 563 sold.
Real estate sales on the eastside improved dramatically when compared to last year. This means we’re experiencing a more normal, realistic market in 2011 than in 2010. There are fewer homes on the market and 33% more homes sold on the eastside this September when compared to last year. Our less volatile real estate market is our new normal and really is not bad at all!
On average, most homes were on the market for 90 days before they sold. Homes sold within 93% of the original asking price with the median sales price for the eastside at $526,000.
