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Did Condo Prices Drop on Seattle’s Eastside in August, 2012?
First, a word about condo prices on Seattle's eastside:
Even though the news media said condo prices were down in King County, they appear to be holding steady in the Seattle's eastside cities of Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, etc, when compared to August 2011 pricing. This is good news for condo sellers who have gotten beaten up by pricing in the last few years. With the low supply of condos for sale, prices are no longer declining, and, in fact, they may begin rising. In June, July, and August, prices on the eastside did increase, which brought us back to the pricing in the middle of last year. Unfortunately, prices did drop last fall through the early spring of this year, but we have now caught up to the prices we had in mid-2011. It appears that market pricing is holding steady now and has increased in the last few months.
Now back to the number of sales:
Condo sales numbers are actually not much higher than August, 2011 when 194 condos sold. This year, 201 condos sold in August. Because there's about half the number of condos for sale this year than in 2011, the percentage of those that sold, the absorption rate, skyrocketed. Last year, 19% of the condos sold and this year, 43% sold.
Time on the market has also dropped to an average of 68 days to sell vs.116 days in August of 2011.
So what does this all mean if you are thinking of selling or have your condo on the market?
If your condo takes a long time to sell, then it is either overpriced or is not marketed well. Make sure your condo has great online photos to start. Staging can also be a big plus. Good pricing and great photos are the two most critical marketing pieces to getting your condo sold. Remember this is how buyers and other agents "see" your home first, so the pricing and online marketing are crucial to getting buyers through the door to actually see your condo and make an offer to buy it.
What does this all mean if you are a condo buyer?
With the pattern of price increases, this means we're past the bottom of the market pricing. This may be the time to make a purchase. With the short supply, pricing could continue to increase. Remember, too, that interest rates are still incredibly low. Don't forget to check the financial viablity of an condo association you're thinking of buying into. In a blog post I wrote a few months ago, I listed some of the important things to look for when checking condos out. The post looks at the issue from the seller's point of view, but these issues should be important to any buyer. Fortunately for the buyer, the law requires a seller to provide the answers in the form of a resale certificate which is reviewed as one of the conditions of an offer.
If you have any questions about the condo market, please feel free to contact us.
The Seattle-Eastside Condo Market is Amazing!
Our amazing Seattle-Eastside real estate continues! How low can the supply of eastside condos go? In July there were only 463 condos for sale all over the Eastside, less than half the number of condos for sale in July of 2011! The supply is low and the prices have dropped considerably over the last few years as evidenced by the chart below. These market conditions bode well for buyers. Prices are at the bottom and with the low supply, they should begin rising. Unfortunately for the sellers who bought from 2007 on, it's still a tough market as pricing is well below the high experienced during that time.
Not only was the supply at the lowest I can remember, the number of sales were at the high so far for the year. There were 463 condos for sale and 236 of them sold! I've been in real estate on Seattle's eastside for 25 years and I've never seen anything like the lack of supply in the market we're experiencing now. In previous reports I mentioned if the supply of condos stayed on the low side, to expect the positive market to continue in Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, and the other cities east of Seattle. This was how the real estate market performed in July.
The chart beow shows the trend in pricing from 2008-2012 for condo sales on the eastside. Each blue bar represents a month during the years that are represented below. The red line that is drawn across each year shows where the median point is in pricing for the year.In 2008, the median pricing for condo sales on the eastside was $337,064. So far this year, the median pricing for sales is at $221,631. If you look at 2012, pricing has jumped up for the last two months, but on average, it's still lower than previous years.
Time on the market has also dropped to an average of 90 days to sell vs.109 days in June of 2011.
If you have any questions about the condo market, please feel free to contact us.
Were June Condo Sales on Seattle’s Eastside Still Hot?
What an amazing condo market on Seattle's Eastside! Since June of 2011, the number of condos for sale has continued to drop, and drop by alot. Last June there were 1139 condos for sale and this June there are less than 500! What a huge difference!
Not only are there fewer condos for sale, but the sales have been very strong, especially since February. The condo market has been even stronger over the past two months. Approximately 42% of the available condos sold in June. If the supply of condos stays on the low side, expect this positive market to continue in Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, and the other cities east of Seattle.
Median pricing was $235,000 this past month, whereas last year the median pricing for the month stood at $250,000. Don't worry too much about pricing for one month's worth of sales. As we always say, you must follow the trend over a period of months to measure any true increases or decreases in value. One month's real estate prices are only a reflection of the sales that happened that particular month.
Time on the market has also dropped to an average of 90 days to sell vs. 118 days in June of 2011.
So get our there and find a great home, but do your homework before getting in the car to look at properties. Check out the commute, the neighborhood, schools and anything else that is of importance to you before you start looking for a home. If you do that, you can target the right location to look for a home. You can then look for a home that works for you in a the right location.
Remember location, location, location is the primary rule of real estate. In today's world, location can mean many different things to people based on job location, commutes, and area amenities. Determine what it means to you and then go for the condos in that particular location.
If you have any questions about the condo market, please feel free to contact us.
How Badly is Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Affected by Distressed Sales
“Distressed Homes Sales Dragging Prices Down” screamed the print version of The Seattle Times, while the online version shouted “Median Home Price in King County Drops in February, Dragged Down by Bank Repos.
Pretty scary headlines. Scary headlines certainly attract readers. Distressed home sales, bank repos and short sales, are out there and affecting home values, but in varying degrees depending on which neighborhood is being discussed. If you read further down in the article:
The percentage of King County single-family homes that fit the “distressed” category in February varied widely by area, according to Windermere’s analysis.
By lumping all of King County together, it gives an inaccurate picture of Seattle real estate. Seattle real estate is far more localized. The neighborhoods of Queen Anne and Capitol Hill are usually the strongest performing areas, while the eastside suburbs of Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, and others are doing better than most of King County. The suburbs of Mercer Island and Medina have few distressed properties for sale.
The chart below gives a picture of the 2010 distressed property sales for all the counties around Seattle. My focus is on Seattle’s eastside neighborhoods, since it’s the market where I work. The eastside data is broken out from the rest of King County, because it’s usually different than the rest of the county. The pattern for distressed sales activity can be seen through 2010. The eastside had less distressed properties for sale than the rest of King County. I expect a similar pattern to continue in 2011, although the numbers may be different. When the 1st quarter numbers are released, I’ll report those numbers.
Irrespective of the distressed sales issue, homes are selling well in some areas. Prices are less than they were, but there are fewer homes for sale in many neighborhoods. So the old law of supply and demand is working in these neighborhoods. Near Microsoft in Redmond, there were three home sales that closed this past week. All the homes sold in less than 8 days. One was for full price, another for slightly over, and one sold for about 2% less than the asking price. Neighborhoods in Kirkland have a lot less homes for sale than is typical.
Distressed home sales are a part of the picture of Seattle eastside real estate, but they are not the complete picture. Too bad the screaming headlines didn’t balance more of the good news with the bad.
2010 Distressed Properties by Seattle Area Counties
What is happening in your neighborhood? Are homes selling? Are there a lot of distressed sales?
How Did January, 2011 Seattle-Eastside Condo Sales Compare to January, 2010?
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- This is the fewest number of condos for sale in years, and I mean years. I checked all the way back to the beginning of 2008. There were only two months in 2008 when less than 1100 condos were for sale on Seattle’s eastside.
This is a better time than most of the past three years (tax credit time is the exception) to sell a condo. Buyers are getting “off the fence” to buy, hence the higher absorption rate. The best of the best are selling quickly, while the rest just stay on the market.
January 2011 Condo Sales on Seattle's Eastside
- This is the fewest number of condos for sale in years, and I mean years. I checked all the way back to the beginning of 2008. There were only two months in 2008 when less than 1100 condos were for sale on Seattle’s eastside.
(The absorption rate, the percentage of condos selling, is the number of condos for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of condos sold that month. So if the absorption rate or chance of selling is 10% that means out of 100 condos for sale, 10 received offers and sold.)
January, 2011 1028 condos for sale 174 condos sold 17% odds of selling.
December, 2010 1084 condos for sale 120 (was 135) condos sold 11% (was 12%) odds of selling.
January, 2010 1217 condos for sale 117 condos sold 10% odds of selling
*Adjusted from previous month’s original numbers to reflect the actual number of condos sold and closed. Some of the sales originally reported last month failed and did not close. Some of the reasons sales fail are the buyer and seller don’t agree on the building inspection, the condo does not appraise for the sales price or the buyer’s financing does not come through.
If you plan to sell your condo in the near future, feel free to contact me if you have questions about what you need to do to get ready to sell. Every seller has to do a few things before putting a home on the market. If your home is positioned properly, it can be one of the lucky few to get an offer.
Has a Positive Trend Started in Seattle-Eastside Real Estate?
The positive trend in Seattle’s eastside real estate continued from December, 2010 to January’s sales. Maybe the uptick in December was not an anomaly? We’ll still need to wait and see.
This, again, is what the Seattle Times said after December’s home sales numbers were released:
• Buyers are climbing off the fence, even if they suspect prices will continue slipping, because they fear interest rates will rise and wipe out any savings.
There was a lot more “climbing off the fence” in January. Truthfully, the number of sales hasn’t increased all that much, but the number of homes the buyers have to choose from is a lot less. It’s that old law of supply and demand, which is what we call the absorption rate.*
There are fewer homes to choose from, so the good ones are grabbed up. That’s what feels different. The “fence sitters’ are jumping on the good home buys. Some homes that hit the market are gone in a matter of days. The homes that are priced right and show well are the homes that sell quickly.
Since the last two months have had stronger absorption rates, I hesitate to call it a trend just yet, but I’ll keep you posted. I can tell you that the number of buyers looking at homes, multiple offers (gasp), and the absorption rate (see below) have all increased since the first of the year.
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Seattle Eastside Real Estate Sales-January 2011
The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in January ranged from 18% to 28%, with an average 19.5% absorption rate.* Most home sellers on Seattle’s eastside had a 19/100 chance of selling their home last month.
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*(The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month. If the absorption rate is 10%, then 10 out of the 100 homes for sale sold that month.)
January, 2011 2392 homes for sale 467 homes sold 19% odds of selling.
December, 2010 2499 homes for sale 369 (was 397) homes sold 15% (was 16%) odds of selling.**
January, 2010 2588 homes for sale 460 homes sold 18% odds of selling.
**(Some home sales fail because of the buyer financing or an inspection. The number of sales is updated when we find out the actual number of homes that sold during that time.)
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January, 2011 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to January, 2010:
- The average price of pending homes (recently sold homes) went from $525,462 to $495,080, a 6% decrease in pricing.
- On 2-14-11, there were 10,530 King County homes (houses and condos) for sale.
- The number of homes sold on Seattle’s Eastside: down 11% from last year.
- Number of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside: The number of homes for sale in January, 2011 was 7% less than January, 2010.
Best odds of selling: East Bellevue/Redmond around Microsoft.
Worst odds of selling: Sammamish/Issaquah/North Bend/ Fall City.
Decline in home sales from last year: Three out of the 7 Seattle-eastside areas had fewer sales, South Bellevue, Kirkland, and Sammamish/Issaquah/North Bend/ Fall City.
What’s happening with real estate in your neighborhood?
How Many Condos Sold on Seattle's Eastside in Dec 2010 Compared to 2009?
December, 2010 beat out December, 2009 by 35 sales. Over 30% more Seattle-eastside condos sold in 2010 than in December, 2009.
(The absorption rate, the percentage of condos selling, is the number of condos for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of condos sold that month. So if the absorption rate or chance of selling is 10% that means out of 100 condos for sale, 10 received offers and sold.)
December, 2010 1084 condos for sale 135 condos sold 12.5% odds of selling.
November, 2010 1191 condos for sale 138 (was 150) condos sold 11.5% (was 12.5%) odds of selling
December, 2009 1174 condos for sale 100 condos sold 8.5% odds of selling.
*Adjusted from previous month’s original numbers to reflect the actual number of condos sold and closed. Some of the sales originally reported last month failed and did not close. Some of the reasons sales fail are the buyer and seller don’t agree on the building inspection, the condo does not appraise for the sales price or the buyer’s financing does not come through.
Other than the spring when the tax credit was in place, December was one of the best months to sell a condo last year. Partly because there were fewer condos for sale, 31% fewer than the peak of 1552 in July. Competition fell off so much by the end of the year, the odds of selling increased. It will still be a challenge this year, but condos will sell.
If you plan to sell your condo in the next year or so, feel free to contact me if you have questions about what you need to do to get ready to sell. Most every seller has to do a few things before putting a home on the market for the world to see. If your home is in the best possible condition before going on the market, there’s a better chance your home will be one of those 9-12% of homes that gets the offer. The number seems a little scary because it still is low, but if your home is positioned properly, it can be one of the lucky few to get an offer.
How Many Real Estate Sales Were on Seattle's Eastside in Dec 2010 Compared to 2009?
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Sales were much better in December, 2010 than Dec, 2009 almost everywhere, but not across the board. In 4 of the 7 Seattle-eastside real estate areas, sales percentages were up from 2009 t0 2010. Sales increases ranged from 2% in South Bellevue and Issaquah to 40% in Redmond/East Bellevue. East Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft were hit pretty hard in December, 2009, but bounced back to be the strongest area on the eastside for most of 2010.
This month, I’ve included the total number of homes sold in each area in 2010. Some of the numbers are small, such as West Bellevue, when compared to areas such as Sammamish, etc. This is because West Bellevue is a much smaller area than Sammamish/North Bend/Snoqualmie/Fall City/and parts of Issaquah combined. Some of the areas cover huge numbers of homes and others do not.
The drop in the number of homes for sale on Seattle’s eastside continued in December, but did not hit the lowest point for the year. The number of homes for sale dropped to just above 11,000 at the close of 2010. Despite fewer homes on the market, home sales were moving in December. As I’ve said before, the homes with the best value proposition of price and condition got the attention of the buyers. Those were the homes that sold.
How did December, 2009 compare to December, 2010 in your neighborhood?
(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 15.5%.
Median sales price was virtually the same: $499,900 to $499,450.
The number of homes for sale increased by 17.5% and the number of home sales were the same as last year plus one home!
A total of 1755 homes sold in 2010.
The odds of selling a home were 20.5%.
Median sales price decreased by 5% to $424,500 from $445,000.
The number of homes for sale was down by 18% and sales were up by 40%.
A total of 797 homes sold in 2010.
The odds of selling a home were 19%.
Median price decreased from $610,450 to $569,995.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 6% and sales were up by 2%.
A total of 1012 homes sold in 2010.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median price was up from $410,944 to $437,000.
The number of homes for sale declined by 3% and sales were up by 11.5%.
A total of 1473 homes sold in 2010.
The odds of selling a home were 16%.
Median price increased to $549,000 from $491,000.
The number of homes for sale declined by 17% and sales were down by 10%.
A total of 794 homes sold in 2010.
The odds of selling a home were 12%.
Median pricing was down from $847,440 to $729,000.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 8% and sales decreased by 26.5%.
The total number of homes sold in 2010 was 415.
Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 12%
Median pricing decreased from $549,950 to $524,970.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 5% and sales decreased by 16%.
A total of 766 homes sold in 2010.
If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact me.
December, 2010, A Surprise in the Seattle Eastside Real Estate Market
How did Seattle’s eastside end its year in real estate? Surprising to some, there was a huge increase in the number of homes sold in some areas when compared to last year. Pending sales for the year on the eastside were up by 10%. Only a few of the eastside neighborhoods had home sales which were down from last year.
Several theories were proposed in The Seattle Times wrap up on December real estate:
• The market finally has worked its way through the lull it fell into after the tax credits’ expiration.
• Buyers are climbing off the fence, even if they suspect prices will continue slipping, because they fear interest rates will rise and wipe out any savings.
• There may have been a push to get some long-languishing short sales — sales for less than sellers owe lenders — closed before year-end.
Is this a trend that will continue into the New Year? It’s probably too early to say, but I’ll be watching over the next couple of months to see how 2011 real estate performs on the eastside. Do you think this will be the start of a change in local area real estate?
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Seattle Eastside Real Estate 2010 Snapshot
The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in November ranged from 12% to 20%, with an average 16% absorption rate.* Most home sellers on Seattle’s eastside had a 16/100 chance of selling their home last month.
*(The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month. If the absorption rate is 10%, then 10 out of the 100 homes for sale sold that month.)
December, 2010 2499 homes for sale 397 homes sold 16% odds of selling.
November, 2010 2818 homes for sale 455 (was 485) homes sold 16%(was 17%) odds of selling.*
December, 2009 2584 homes for sale 343 homes sold 13% odds of selling.
*(Some home sales fail because of the buyer financing or an inspection. The number of sales is updated when we find out the actual number of homes that sold during that time.)
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December, 2009 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to December, 2010:
- The average price of pending homes (recently sold homes) went from $536,205 to $513,009.
- On 12-27-10, there were 11,015 King County homes (houses and condos) for sale. There were approximately 4000 less homes for sale, 32% less, in King County now than in July.
- The number of homes sold on Seattle’s Eastside: down .7% from last year. The sales were almost the same as December, 2009.
- Number of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside: The number of homes for sale in December, 2010 was about 75 less than 2009.
- If you look at 2010, in 9 out of 12 months, 400-500 homes sold each month. But the number of homes for sale varied from July’s high of 3400+ to December’s low of 2499.
Best odds of selling: East Bellevue/Redmond areas around Microsoft.
Worst odds of selling: West Bellevue and downtown Redmond and Carnation.
Biggest increase in sales from last year: East Bellevue/Redmond near Microsoft.
Smallest increase in sales from last year: Downtown Redmond and Carnation.
Decline in home sales from last year: Two out of the 7 Seattle-eastside areas had fewer sales, West Bellevue and Sammamish/Issaquah/North Bend/ Fall City.
The peak of homes for sale in 2008: July, 4370 homes.
The peak of homes for sale in 2009: June, 3859 homes.
The peak of homes for sale in 2010: August, 3492 homes.
The number of eastside homes for sale at the start of 2010: 2588 homes.
The number of eastside homes for sale in December, 2010: 2499 homes.
How Was The Seattle Eastside Condo Real Estate Market in November, 2010?
Seattle Eastside Condo Sales Nov 2010
(The absorption rate, the percentage of condos selling, is the number of condos for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of condos sold that month. So if the absorption rate or chance of selling is 10% that means out of 100 condos for sale, 10 received offers and sold.)
November, 2010 1191 condos for sale 150 condos sold 12.5% odds of selling
October, 2010 1375 condos for sale 136 (was 147) condos sold 9% (was 11%) odds of selling.*
September, 2010 1448 condos for sale 130 (was 155) condos sold 9% (was 11%) odds of selling.*
November, 2009 1289 condos for sale 121 condos sold 9% odds of selling.
*Adjusted from previous month’s original numbers to reflect the actual number of condos sold and closed. Some of the sales originally reported last month failed and did not close. Some of the reasons sales fail are the buyer and seller don’t agree on the building inspection, the condo does not appraise for the sales price or the buyer’s financing does not come through.
Wow, November showed the biggest drop in the number of Seattle-eastside condos for sale so far this year! There are 184 less condos for sale. We’re almost at the lowest point of inventory, that is the available condos, for the year. The peak of condos for sale was back in July, when over 1500 condos were for sale on the eastside.
Everyone is so focused on how much homes and condos are losing in value. Yes, there’s no one selling in today’s market that hasn’t lost money in the value of his/her home or condo in the last few years. But remember, if you’re selling because you’d like to buy another condo or home, that one will also cost a lot less than it would have been a few years ago.
If you plan to selling your condo in the next year or so, feel free to contact me if you have questions about what you need to do to get ready to sell. Most every seller has to do a few things before putting a home on the market for the world to see. If your home is in the best possible condition before going on the market, there’s a better chance your home will be one of those 9-12% of homes that gets the offer.
Happy Holidays and have a great 2011!
