Bellevue, WAExploring the EastsideKirkland February 13, 2012

And You Wonder Why We Live on Seattle’s Eastside?

Bellevue, WAEastside Real EstateFor BuyersFor SellersKing County, WAReal EstateRedmondSammamish, WASeattle January 31, 2012

My 2009 Predictions for 2012 Seattle Area Real Estate

 
Predictions for 2012 Seattle-Eastside Real Estate?
 
I’d just written a post with predictions for this year’s real estate market, when I happened to come across this post from 2 1/2 years ago with positive predictions about the 2012 Bellevue/Eastside real estate market. 
Looking at the reprinted post below, how much looks like it could be true for 2012?

 
Rebound in Seattle/Eastside real estate? Wait until 2012.
 
A rebound in Seattle real estate?  Yes, but not just yet, and it will probably be a small rebound, IMHO. Both Yahoo, via the Plugged in Finance blog and Businessweek had articles projecting a faster return to a more positive real estate market for Seattle than for many other parts of the country.  Seattle ended up on the top 10 real estate rebound lists on both Yahoo and Businessweek.
 
Why a rebound in Seattle? Seattle’s chances are among the best in the country and for the same reasons the Seattle/Eastside area was so strong for most of the last two decades.  It’s our economy and our geography.
 
First, the geography. (Bear with me for this brief geography lesson. This brings me back to my roots as a social studies teacher who loves geography.) There’s a lot of empty space east of Seattle, Bellevue and other parts of King County.  This is where the foothills of the Cascade Mountain range begins.  It looks like there’s lots of open space out there, and there is, but it gets pretty steep!  It’s certainly not conducive to building a home. Couple this with strict land use regulations, protecting salmon streams as an example, and even less land is available for development.  It’s double-edged sword.  We need to maintain a healthy balance between people and nature, to maintain our wildlife, our trees, and our quality of life. But the natural elements of the Seattle area, Puget Sound, Lake Washington, and the Cascade Mountains do provide a challenge to our growth. Less land to develop=higher prices, but it  won’t happen for a few years and increases should still be modest.
 
The economy in the Seattle area is hurting like the rest of the country.  But there’s a strong economic base that will re-emerge as things start to turn around.  The old stand-bys, Microsoft, Starbucks, and Boeing are struggling now, but should bounce back.
 
Another thing to watch is the number of homes for sale, the housing inventory.  We’re still at higher numbers, but things are starting to balance out. If you look at the maps, you’ll see the Seattle real estate market of 2009 is far more balanced than the Seattle real estate market of 2008. (A balance market is when the number of homes for sale in an area is less than a 6 months supply.  Yellow on the attached maps indicates a balanced market in the area.
 
Builders are NOT buying land right now. Over the years, builders would have huge amounts of land tied up for future building.  This is no longer the case.  It can take a couple of years to develop a site and to start building homes. With less land available for building and less land owned by builders and ready to be built out, existing homes will be more in demand in the future.
On yesterday’s “Morning Edition” on NPR Station, KPLU, John Maynard interviewed Richard Hagar about another issue, the influx of new people moving to Washington State, the majority of whom are moving to King County. Some of these people rent and some buy condos and homes.  The in-migration of people will only help our real estate and economy over time.
The year 2012 seems like a long way off, but we’re halfway through 2009.  It’s around a really long corner and it’s not going to be an easy “walk” to get there.
 
Now we’re at the end of the first month of 2012, what’s happening with Seattle-Eastside Real Estate? There are differences from what I wrote in 2009 that actually bode well for the Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, Sammamish, etc areas:
 
Builders are buying land now. We have a client who was approached by no less than 4 builders last year when his property was not even listed for sale.  Within the same week, he received several builder solicitations.  He’s not the only homeowner with land who has been approached.  Builders are actually looking to beef up their inventory of land so they can build again.
 
The number of homes on the market has reached the lowest level since February, 2007. In all of King County there are approximately 7500 homes and condos for sale.
The geography hasn’t changed and I believe it will take millions of years before it does and the economy is still performing at a far better pace in the Seattle area than in other parts of the country.  Amazon, Microsoft, and other companies are hiring.
 
What does your crystal ball say?

Eastside Real EstateFor BuyersFor SellersReal EstateSeattle January 24, 2012

Predictions for 2012 Real Estate on the Eastside-Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, Etc.

 
With the start of the new year, we’re seeing a more positive attitude out in the marketplace.  It’s amazing what a new year can bring in attitude and outlook for people.  Many are making choices to move because they want or need to do so.  For some, the price issue is taking a back seat to the need to move.  We have several clients who plan to move because they just got married and want a new home or would like to live in the city, downsize or relocate.  These moves are lifestyle choices.  Some will lose money, while others will make a profit on their home sale.  Lifestyle wants and needs trump the monetary outcome for some.  Truthfully, if homeowners can make a choice as to whether to sell or hold, they are the fortunate ones.

Predictions for 2012 Real Estate

What's in 2012's Crystal Ball for Eastside Real Estate?


 
What’s on the horizon for 2012? As I was driving to a meeting recently, I heard a piece on KPLU about the expected improvement in the Puget Sound economy.
 
Dick Conway, an economic forecaster. had spoken at the 40th Anniversary Economic Forecast Conference in Seattle. Here are five reasons Conway thinks the future is bright:

     

  1. Boeing is showing strong employment, with the 737 MAX  and the 787 being built here, the labor peace pact, and strong bonuses.  Overall, it is a very nice scenario for the Puget Sound Economy.
  2. Job growth in the region is generally outpacing the nation. The strength of both Boeing and Microsoft causes a “multiplier effect,” bringing more jobs with them.
  3. Retail sales numbers have been a pleasant surprise.  Conway predicts a 5.9 percent increase in 2012 and a bit more than 3 percent growth in 2013.
  4. Foreign exports are leading the recovery and Washington state is the nation’s top exporter, thanks again to Boeing. (Microsoft is also a factor here.)
  5. The Puget Sound is home to many strong local companies.

 
Matthew Gardner had a fairly optimistic view for 2012 real estate in the Seattle area:

When combined with improving economic conditions, I would not be surprised to see several markets exhibit modest price growth in 2012. That said and, as we all know, real estate is all about location; therefore I do not expect that price recovery will be equal across all markets.
He tempers this line of thinking with the two elephants in the room:  the expected supply of distressed sales that will hit the market and the difficulty of obtaining financing:
 
If this is actually the case, then why aren’t prices higher? Well, there are still a number of anchors that are holding us back. The first of which is the shadow inventory in the shape of distressed homes. Many foreclosures have been trading at below market value and, in some cases, below replacement cost. This naturally holds down values.
 
Secondly, and equally as important, are the continued issues with obtaining financing for the purchase of a new home. It remains remarkably difficult to get a mortgage, which has led to an unusually high percentage of proposed purchases falling through.
 
With the new year and promising economic news, we expect Seattle-eastside real estate to be the strongest since 2007.  Home sales should be steady even as inventory rises into the summer.  Prices, of course, may stay about where they are for now.  The key to pricing will be the supply of homes on the market.  The more homes, the more competition for buyers and the more flexible sellers will need to be about pricing.  With fewer homes on the market and steady demand, prices should stabilize.  If prices do go up, most likely it will be in the areas that are close-in, areas which are considered desirable locations.  Expect distressed sales to temper the pricing this year.  The number of homes for sale and pricing will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.  The eastside is filled with real estate micro-markets and they don’t perform in the same way.
 
If there are any price increases, they will be minimal, but if there are increases, we will be shouting this from the rooftops!  Because we watch market trends so carefully, our sellers will be among the first to know about any price increases. You will, however, hear us shouting that 2012 is expected to be our best market in the last 4 years.
 
Our predictions:

  • Prices should not drop further.
  • Some homes will be the “hot” ones because of price and condition.  These homes will sell quickly and some will have multiple offers.
  • Other homes and neighborhoods will move more slowly because of price and location.
  • Local companies, such as Amazon and Microsoft, will continue to move people to the area.
  • The supply of homes for sale will increase as the year heads to spring and summer, however, there are some homeowners who will choose to hold for a number of years.  The supply should not increase as dramatically as it has in the last few years.
  • Distressed sales will continue to  be a significant part of the supply and will continue to affect pricing statistics.  However, pricing will be stronger for those homes that aren’t distressed sales.
  • There will be a more balanced market between buyers and sellers.
  • The wide range of activity indicates a normal, active real estate market on Seattle’s eastside.

 
What do you think will happen real estate in cities such as Bellevue, Kirkland, and Redmond?  Will prices go up, down or stay the same?  Do you see a good market in your area?

 

Eastside Real EstateFor BuyersFor HomeownersMarket StatisticsReal EstateSeattle real estate January 23, 2012

How Was The Seattle Eastside Condo Market in December 2011?

Seattle Eastside condo inventory dipped to 2011’s lowest point in December, 2011.
 
The year began and ended with under 1000 condos for sale.
 
The number of available eastside condos peaked in June with well over 1100 condos for sale.    The peak was never really much of a peak when we look at the peak numbers in previous years.  In the past, the number of condos could easily top out at 1500 for sale.  In  October 2010, there were 1375 condos for sale, and that was not even the peak month for 2010.
 
As most people know, condos have been hit harder than single family homes by the economic downturn.  Prices are down quite a bit, so it’s good to see 2011 end with fewer condos for sale on the eastside.  There’s a big drop in value for condos, about 18% for the year, but the reality is the lower prices are helping to move some of the supply.
 
With fewer condos for sale and a fresh start with the new year, I expect to see condos sell well. The economy is doing better locally with Boeing, Amazon, Microsoft, and others in a hiring mode. Prices will continue to stay low, but with the huge decline in the number of properties for sale, prices should remain stable this year.
 
There were 822 condos for sale in December, with 138 of them receiving offers.  The average market time was 135 days, a  shorter market time than last December’s 156 days.  Condos sold within 90% of the original asking price.
 
Median pricing is down overall, but the median sales price increased during December by 7% from $224,000 in December, 2010 to $239,000.  Remember median pricing reflects what sold that particular month.   This doesn’t mean pricing was up 7% for the year, but what sold in December, 2011 was slightly more expensive than what sold in December, 2010.
 
Our condo supply is usually the highest in the summer. The bell curve shape for the number of condos for sale on the above chart is the typical pattern for most years, regardless of how the real estate market performs.   Condos do sell well in the summer, but competition is much fiercer.  If you’re thinking of selling your eastside condo, it’s best to get on the market in the early spring to get ahead of the competition.
 
Since we have micro-real estate markets in Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland and the other eastside cities, please contact us if you have questions about your complex or your condo’s value.
 
Have a great 2012!

Bellevue Real EstateBellevue, WAEastside Real EstateFor BuyersFor SellersKing County Real EstateMarket StatisticsReal Estate January 19, 2012

2011 Ends With The Fewest Homes for Sale in 4 Years on Seattle’s Eastside

How Many Homes Sold on Seattle’s Eastside in December, 2011?

 
We have to go back before the bubble burst to February 2007 to find so few homes for sale on Seattle’s eastside!  There’s a healthy number of homes for sale on the eastside, 1897 at the close of December, so there are good choices for buyers.  With fewer homes on the market, it spurs the competition among buyers for the best homes and should help stabilize prices. In some neighborhoods, there aren’t any homes for sale right now.
 
Pricing is becoming more affordable for a new set of buyers who are coming to the market for the first time.  A mortgage payment that would have bought a home for $500,000 in 2008, would now cover the purchase of a home in the mid-$600,000s!
 
Here’s a snapshot of Seattle-Eastside real estate in December, 2011 compared to 2010:

  • 24% fewer homes were on the market.
  • The time it took to sell a home went from 129 days to 111 days this past December.
  • Sales prices were 8% below the seller’s original asking price, while in 2010 they averaged 10% below the asking price.
  • Eighteen percent of the homes for sale this December received offers and sold, while only 14% received offers in 2010.
  • 338 homes sold in 2011, while in December 2010, 351 homes received offers.

 
The actual number of homes sold did not change much, which, surprisingly, is almost always the case.   The difference was not in the number of sales, but in the number of homes for sale.  There were 597 fewer homes for sale at the end of 2011 than 2010.  When there are fewer homes for sale, there are fewer “for sale” signs out in neighborhoods.  The “sold” signs also pop up a lot faster.
 
When the supply increases, there’s increased competition and homes take longer to sell.   Most people think homes are not selling because there are more real estate signs and they stay posted in yards for a longer time. This is not the case.  Homes are selling, but there’s just more competition which makes it feel as if the market is slower.
 
The real difference then is the supply, the number of homes for sale.  If there’s a smaller supply the market will seem faster because these homes will sell faster.  If there is a larger supply, there is more competition and the market will seem slower because it takes longer to sell a home.  In both markets, though, the number of homes that sell does not vary all that much.  It is the Supply that varies and changes what we think is happening in the real estate market.  The above chart confirms this as you can see the supply changes far more dramatically than the number of sales, which are shown at the bottom of each month.
 
In my next piece, I’ll talk about how Seattle-eastside real estate should play out for the coming year.  Have a great 2012 and hope you are able to make it through this week’s snow.
 
Since real estate is neighborhood specific, if you’d like more information about your home, contact us, we’re here to help.
 
*The numbers are a result of the real estate sales activity that happened that particular month only.  In order to see a trend, it is important to look at a number of months together.  One month is only indicative of that particular month’s sales.

 

 

Eastside Real EstateFor BuyersFor SellersKing County Real EstateReal Estate January 17, 2012

24% Fewer Homes for Sale on Seattle-Eastside But Sales Stay Steady!

How Many Homes Sold on Seattle’s Eastside in December, 2011?

If you read the news about Seattle real estate, it could make you crazy!  It’s hard to determine what’s true and what is hype. There’s some tough news that dominates and then there is some news that is actually good.  You know how it is, bad news always travels faster than good news, no matter what the topic.  Our real estate news is a mixed bag, but it’s good to know it’s not all bad news.   So let’s deal with the “bad” news first, since that seems to be most people’s hot button. And, by the way, if you read beyond the headlines, it may not be as bad as it seems.

True, our prices are down. That’s the elephant in the room.  The “king” of the bad news.  There is no getting around it.  But if you look at the pricing issue more closely, it’s not as dire as it seems. Take out the distressed sales and prices for individual home sellers are down, but not as much.

• Bank-owned houses accounted for 20 percent of all King County sales in November, up from 14 percent a year earlier. Those houses sold for a median price of $177,000, down 18 percent from $216,000 in November 2010.

• The median price of short-sales houses dropped 17 percent, from $305,000 to $260,000.

• But other, “nondistressed” sales saw a much smaller price decline — 2.5 percent, from $399,000 to $389,000.*

Prices are down, but depending on the area, not as badly as one would think. The eastside is one of the areas where it is not as bad because people are still moving here for jobs and buying homes.  If you look at the chart above, over 400 homes have sold on Seattle’s eastside each month this year.  This November saw higher sales  than last November.

The good news for Seattle-eastside real estate:

  • 24% fewer homes were on the market in December this year than in 2010.
  • The time it takes to sell a home went from 129 days last December to 111 days this December.
  • Sales prices on average were just 8% below the seller’s original asking price this year, while last year they averaged 10% below the asking price.
  • Eighteen percent of the homes for sale this December received offers and sold, while only 14% received offers in 2010
  • There’s no getting around that, but with less homes on the market, it spurs the competition among buyers for the best homes.
  • Pricing is becoming more affordable for a new set of buyers who are coming to the market for the first time.

Amazingly, the actual number of homes sold did not change all that much.  Last year 495 homes sold.  This year 464 sold.  The difference?  There was much more competition last year because there were 597 more homes on the market!

So remember,  look at all the facts, not just the headlines when talking about real estate.  Review the data that applies to your specific neighborhood to make a decision about the market.

What’s happening in your neighborhood?  Is there any good news mixed in with all the negativity about the real estate market?

 

 

*The numbers are a result of the real estate sales activity that happened that particular month only.  In order to see a trend, it is important to look at a number of months together.  One month is only indicative of that particular month’s sales.

 

Bellevue, WAEastside Real EstateFor BuyersFor SellersIssaquah, WAKirklandMarket StatisticsReal EstateRedmondSammamish, WASeattle real estateWindermere Real EstateWoodinville, WA January 11, 2012

How Was The Real Estate Market In Your Seattle-Eastside City in December 2011?

The December Real Estate Map Showing a Balanced Market Between Buyers and Sellers

 

The cities below are grouped together to follow our MLS areas (multiple listing service).  This is how our statistics are reported.

How was real estate market in your Seattle-Eastside city in December, 2011?

1. Redmond/East Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 36%*

Median sales price increased (y-o-y)**from $420,000 to $455,000

125 homes were for sale

A total of 42 homes sold

Days on the market: 104

2. Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 19%

Median sales price increased  from $498,000 to $510,000

167 homes were for sale

A total of 57 homes sold

Days on Market:  101

2. (TIE) South Bellevue/Issaquah

The odds of selling a home were 19%

Median price decreased from $560,000 to $505,000

242 homes were for sale

A total of 58 homes sold

Days on market: 123

3. The plateau:  Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City

The odds of selling a home were 17%

Median sales price increased from $440,000 to $463,000

There were 527 homes for sale

A total of 116 homes sold

Days on the market: 103

4.  Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation

The odds of selling a home were 16%

Median sales price decreased from $530,000 to $515,000

207 homes were for sale

A total of 66 homes sold

Days on Market: 115

4. (TIE) Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 16%

Median sales price decreased from $393,000 to $339,000

421 homes were for sale

A total of 96 homes sold

Days on Market: 127

5. West Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 10%.

Median sales price increased from $950,000 to $998,000

127 homes were for sale

A total of 15 homes sold

Days on Market: 95

If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact either Brooks or me.

*(The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)

** (y-o-y)  median pricing is comparing year over year numbers.

Bellevue Real EstateBellevue, WAEastside Real EstateFor BuyersFor SellersKing County Real EstateKing County, WAMarket StatisticsReal Estate January 5, 2012

Sellers in the Seattle Area and On the Eastside Start Your Engines!


 
At the start of 2012, there are less than 8000 homes for sale in King County!  Compare this number to the start of the last three years:

  • 2011:  10,008 homes for sale
  • 2010:    9726 homes for sale
  • 2009:  11,363 homes for sale

 
The old law of supply and demand is at work here and is starting to favor sellers more than it has for years.  There’s a 3.6 months supply of homes for sale in King County.  This means there’s a balanced market between buyers and sellers with the market tipping towards the sellers.  (Less than 3 months of inventory indicates a sellers market.)
 
On Seattle’s Eastside, the market is looking really strong, particularly around the Microsoft area of East Bellevue and Redmond.  The number of homes for sale has dropped dramatically.
 
What should buyers and sellers expect in the first quarter of 2012 on Seattle’s eastside?

Fabulous interest rates.

A more positive real estate market.

The market will continue to be affected by short sales and foreclosures.
 
Home prices are not up nor will they go up.  There is no indication on the immediate horizon that indicates anything about price increases.  On the flip side, the lack of supply of homes for sale helps to stabilize the market and prices.  Fewer homes means more competition, which helps pricing. The real estate market will vary neighborhood by neighborhood.  One size does not fit all.
 
Location matters.  Homes close to economic centers that offer a good commute, good schools, and good amenities will be more in demand.
 
Condition matters.  Homes should go on the market in the best possible condition to command the best price.
 
Some home sales will be good deals depending on the available competition, the condition of the home, and the seller’s motivation.
 
Some homes will sell for full price, in a matter of days, and with multiple offers This, too, will depend on the same factors mentioned in my previous statement.
 
It is important to know your area.  Buyers and sellers should both be aware of the competition, pricing, and condition of nearby homes to determine the value of a specific home.
 
Homes need to be priced right or they will not sell.  I heard a seller say the other day, “I’m not going to give away the farm.”  If you, as a home seller, have far more money into your home than it’s worth and you have no interest or are financially unable to price your home to meet the market, then this is not be the time to sell your home.

Gee, it sounds like a normal real estate market to me!  What do you see happening in your market place?

 

Eastside Real EstateFor BuyersFor SellersMarket StatisticsReal EstateSeattle real estate December 15, 2011

How Was The Seattle-Eastside Condo Market in November, 2011?

 

Eastside condo sales

Seattle Eastside Condo Sales Through November, 2011


 
There were more condo sales on the eastside with 156 sales over last year’s 125!  There also were 21% fewer condos on the market than in 2010.  More sales and fewer condos for sale is a good thing!
 
There were 867 condos for sale in November, with 156 of them receiving offers.  Average market time was 118 days, one of the shortest market times of the year.  Condos sold within 91% of the original asking price.
 
The median sales price declined by 11% from $250,000 to $233,000.  Remember, though, this number includes median prices for all condos, including bank foreclosures and short sales.
 
Is this decline a true measure of the marketplace?

 
Real estate, including condos has become more affordable because of the drop in value.   This is the reality of the situation and is a boon to buyers who are hoping to make a move.
 
How are condos selling in your area?

Bellevue, WAEastside Real EstateFor BuyersFor SellersIssaquah, WAKing County Real EstateMarket StatisticsReal EstateSammamish, WASeattle real estateWoodinville, WA December 14, 2011

How Was The Real Estate Market in your Seattle-Eastside City in November 2011?

 
If you lived in Kirkland and had your home for sale last month, the odds of it selling in November were 31%, the strongest absorption rate to be found on the eastside.*  The homes in East Bellevue and Redmond areas around Microsoft had a 29% chance of selling.  Chances of selling ranged from 11-22.5% in the other eastside cities.
 
Homes in East Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft sold the fastest on Seattle’s eastside.  On average, homes there sold in 2 months.   Market time for the other eastside cities, ranged from 3 to 4 months.
 
This is reasonable market time, indicating a balanced market between buyers and sellers.  A balanced market means there’s a more normal market.  Some homes sold quickly and others stayed on the market for a long time.   Some homes sold for full price and others sold at steep discounts.
 
Seattle Real Estate is a more balanced market between buyers and sellers

The November Real Estate Map Showing a More Balanced Market Between Buyers and Sellers

 

The cities below are grouped together to follow our MLS areas (multiple listing service).  This is how our statistics are reported.
 
How was real estate market in your Seattle-eastside city in November, 2011?
 
1. Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 31%.*

Median price decreased  (y-o-y)** from $530,000 to $477,000.

188 homes were for sale.

A total of 58 homes sold.

Days on Market:  105
 
2. Redmond/East Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 29%.

Median sales price decreased to $418,000 from $527,000.

163 homes were for sale

A total of 48 homes sold.

Days on the market: 60
 
3. South Bellevue/Issaquah

The odds of selling a home were 22.5%.

Median price increased from $538,000 to $550,000.

267 homes were for sale.

A total of 60 homes sold.

Days on market: 98
 
4. Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation

The odds of selling a home were 22%

Median pricing decreased from $540,000 to $530,000.

247 homes were for sale.

A total of 54 homes sold.

Days on Market: 104
 
4. (tie) Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland

The odds of selling a home were 22%.

Median price was down from $451,000 to $394,000.

481 homes were for sale.

A total of 105 homes sold.

Days on Market: 114
 
5. The plateau:  Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City

The odds of selling a home were 18%.

Median sales price decreased from $460,000 to $441,000.

There were 580 homes for sale.

A total of 104 homes sold.

Days on the market: 119
 
6. West Bellevue

The odds of selling a home were 11%.

Median pricing decreased to $950,000 from $1,035,000.

127 homes were for sale.

A total of 14 homes sold.

Days on Market: 91

 
If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact either Brooks or me.

*(The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)

** (y-o-y)  median pricing is comparing year over year numbers.