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How Badly is Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Affected by Distressed Sales
“Distressed Homes Sales Dragging Prices Down” screamed the print version of The Seattle Times, while the online version shouted “Median Home Price in King County Drops in February, Dragged Down by Bank Repos.
Pretty scary headlines. Scary headlines certainly attract readers. Distressed home sales, bank repos and short sales, are out there and affecting home values, but in varying degrees depending on which neighborhood is being discussed. If you read further down in the article:
The percentage of King County single-family homes that fit the “distressed” category in February varied widely by area, according to Windermere’s analysis.
By lumping all of King County together, it gives an inaccurate picture of Seattle real estate. Seattle real estate is far more localized. The neighborhoods of Queen Anne and Capitol Hill are usually the strongest performing areas, while the eastside suburbs of Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, and others are doing better than most of King County. The suburbs of Mercer Island and Medina have few distressed properties for sale.
The chart below gives a picture of the 2010 distressed property sales for all the counties around Seattle. My focus is on Seattle’s eastside neighborhoods, since it’s the market where I work. The eastside data is broken out from the rest of King County, because it’s usually different than the rest of the county. The pattern for distressed sales activity can be seen through 2010. The eastside had less distressed properties for sale than the rest of King County. I expect a similar pattern to continue in 2011, although the numbers may be different. When the 1st quarter numbers are released, I’ll report those numbers.
Irrespective of the distressed sales issue, homes are selling well in some areas. Prices are less than they were, but there are fewer homes for sale in many neighborhoods. So the old law of supply and demand is working in these neighborhoods. Near Microsoft in Redmond, there were three home sales that closed this past week. All the homes sold in less than 8 days. One was for full price, another for slightly over, and one sold for about 2% less than the asking price. Neighborhoods in Kirkland have a lot less homes for sale than is typical.
Distressed home sales are a part of the picture of Seattle eastside real estate, but they are not the complete picture. Too bad the screaming headlines didn’t balance more of the good news with the bad.
2010 Distressed Properties by Seattle Area Counties
What is happening in your neighborhood? Are homes selling? Are there a lot of distressed sales?
How Many Real Estate Sales Were on Seattle’s Eastside in January 2011 Compared to 2010?
[googlemaps http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Bellevue,+WA&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=23.403932,58.271484&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Bellevue,+King,+Washington&ll=47.610377,-122.200679&spn=0.310148,0.910492&z=10&output=embed&w=425&h=350]
How did January, 2010 compare to January, 2011 in your neighborhood?
(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median sales price hardly dropped: $499,900 to $493,975. Home values have been more stable here than anywhere else on the eastside.
The number of homes for sale increased by 4% and the number of home sales decreased by 4%.
A total of 118 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 28%.
Median sales price decreased by 9% to $409,925 from $450,000.
The number of homes for sale was down by 16% and sales were down by 14%.
A total of 54 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 19.5%.
Median price decreased from $559,900 to $460,000.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 10% and sales were down by 30%.
A total of 63 homes sold.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median price was down from $389,725 to $359,900.
The number of homes for sale declined by 3% and sales were down by 8%.
A total of 105 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median price increased to $506,950 from $499,950, a 1% increase.
The number of homes for sale declined by 19% and sales were down by 35%.
A total of 52 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 21%.
Median pricing was up from $899,000 to $1,000,000.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 11% and sales increased by 48%.
The total of 40 homes sold.
Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 20%
Median pricing decreased from $524,990 to $376,250.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 5% and sales decreased by 8%.
A total of 52 homes sold.
If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact me.
Is This The New "Normal" for Seattle Area Real Estate?
Maybe this is how real estate is going to be in the Seattle area. Maybe we’ll have some local markets where things are “hot” just for the buyer, and, someday again, even for the seller. But maybe the Seattle marketplace will be more balanced (yellow on the map below) between the buyers and the sellers. Maybe this is the new “normal” real estate market. The majority of homes will sell in 3-6 months, some will sell for full price, some homes will sell with a small price reduction, and some will even have multiple offers. Still others will undergo a number of price reductions before selling and some will not even get an offer.
Here’s what I wrote in my November post on the real estate market. I shared similar thoughts then, so I’m wondering if we’re starting to see a pattern here.
Does this mean it’s no longer a challenge to sell a home? Absolutely not. The competition is still very stiff. There are a lot of homes for buyers to buy. A market in which it takes homes 3-6 months to sell is still a challenging, but not a terrible, real estate market. In a balanced market, some homes sell quickly for a good price, others take a lot longer to sell with a steep discount in the the asking price, and still others don’t sell at all. I’m still going to be telling home sellers to have the best home out there and expect a sale to take a long time to happen. Homes that sell have to be a really good value to be the ones that sell. Believe it or not, this is pretty typical of a more balanced, realistic market. A realistic market is not a fast paced real estate market. A realistic market will have some distressed home sellers. Although this is a cause of major concern and I am not minimizing the situation for those who are distressed sellers, the majority of eastside homes are NOT distressed sales.
So maybe this is the new “normal”? What do you think?
The State Of Seattle Area Real Estate in December, 2010
- Seattle Area Real Estate 11-30-10
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What do the 3 digit numbers on the map mean?
The map is divided into the numbered areas as defined by our Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Downtown Bellevue is area 520 and East Bellevue is area 530, as an example.
What do the colors mean?
Red means it’s a sellers’ market, a sellers’ advantage. Homes take less than 3 months to sell.
Yellow means a balanced market between buyers and sellers. Homes on the average take 3-6 months to sell.
Green means it’s a buyers’ market. Homes take longer than 6 months to sell.
If you take each area as shown on the map and look to the area number on the side of the map, it will tell you how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale if no other home came up on the market in that area.
What's The Worst Time to be on the Market in the Seattle Area?
Weekly List of King County Homes for Sale in 2010
It’s July! Why July? Because that’s the time of year when the largest number of homes and condos are on the market.
Are you surprised? So many times I hear from people they’re waiting until the summer to sell, when school is out. But it’s not the best time. If you look at the chart above, the peak of the competition, when the most number of homes and condos were on the market, was at the end of July. At that time 14,639 homes were on the market.
This year starts out with 10,008 properties on the market, which, if we follow typical yearly patterns, means the first of the year is one of the best times to sell a home. There’s so much less competition. In fact, there are 32% less homes on the market now when compared to July of last year.
Was 2010 unique? No, this is the typical pattern we see every year, no matter the type of real estate market. For example, here’s how the peak of 2009 looked:
7-27-09 13,861
The peak of the homes for sale in the Seattle area real estate market was the exact same week in 2009 and 2010.
So, if you’d like to make a move this year, please don’t wait until the summer. That’s when everyone else is going to put their homes on the market.
As soon as the statistics are available for the time of the year when the most homes sold, I’ll share that, too.
If you are thinking of selling your home, feel free to contact me to talk about how to position your home to get the best possible price given current market conditions. But contact me sooner, rather than later this year! Have a great 2011.
This Past Month Seattle Eastside Real Estate Was Balanced Between Buyers and Sellers
Seattle Area Real Estate 11-30-10
The Seattle-eastside market is balanced. Surprised by that? Here’s why I say this: A balanced market is when homes on average are selling in 3-6 months. This means there was a more level playing field between buyers and sellers during that particular month, in this case November 2010. Given the news we hear, it’s surprising to think of the eastside real estate market in this way.
Does this mean it’s no longer a challenge to sell a home? Absolutely not. The competition is still very stiff. There are a lot of homes for buyers to buy. A market in which it takes homes 3-6 months to sell is still a challenging, but not a terrible, real estate market. In a balanced market, some homes sell quickly for a good price, others take a lot longer to sell with a steep discount in the the asking price, and still others don’t sell at all. I’m still going to be telling home sellers to have the best home out there and expect a sale to take a long time to happen. Homes that sell have to be a really good value to be the ones that sell. Believe it or not, this is pretty typical of a more balanced, realistic market. A realistic market is not a fast paced real estate market. A realistic market will have some distressed home sellers. Although this is a cause of major concern and I am not minimizing the situation for those who are distressed sellers, the majority of eastside homes are NOT distressed sales.
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What do the 3 digit numbers on the map mean?
The map is divided into the numbered areas as defined by our Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Downtown Bellevue is area 520 and East Bellevue is area 530, as an example.
What do the colors mean?
Red means it’s a sellers’ market, a sellers’ advantage. Homes take less than 3 months to sell.
Yellow means a balanced market between buyers and sellers. Homes on the average take 3-6 months to sell.
Green means it’s a buyers’ market. Homes take longer than 6 months to sell.
If you take each area as shown on the map and look to the area number on the side of the map, it will tell you how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale if no other home came up on the market in that area.
Are We Seeing The Number of Homes On The Market in King County Dropping?
Number of King County Homes for Sale 11-29-10
It’s easy to see that King County real estate is following the national trend right now. There are fewer homes on the market than just a few weeks ago and, definitely, from a few months ago. The peak of the competition was back in the last week of July when there were 14,639 homes on the market.
This week, we’re about ready to cross the line below 12,000 homes for sale with the number standing at 12,119. The number of King County homes for sale should drop back below 12,000 by next week or the week after. Plan on it.
It would be great to get back below the the 10,000 mark as we did back at the beginning of this year.
Many people think this time of year isn’t a good time to sell a home. With the lower number of homes for sale, meaning less competition for buyers, what do you think?
There's No Sign of a Seller's Market in Seattle Real Estate
Seattle Area Real Estate Map Showing Different Market Performance 10-31-10
The lack of “red” showing a seller’s market in Seattle area real estate is no big surprise. However, it’s good to see the market was more balanced in some Seattle area neighborhoods in October.
A balanced market is when homes on average are selling between 3-6 months, which means there was a level playing field between buyers and sellers in those areas for that particular month. A buyer’s market means the homes on average are taking longer than 6 months to sell and a seller’s market means the homes take less than 3 months to sell.
A real estate market is labeled a buyer or seller’s market depending on how long it took the homes to sell that month. Since the sales can vary each month, the type of real estate market can very easily change, going back and forth between a buyer or seller advantage.
Even though it’s more challenging for sellers, there are homes that stand out and sell with multiple offers or for full price. Look at the overall real estate market, look at the market in the neighborhood, and then look at the specific home and how well it’s priced for that market. When making a pricing decision, all of this data is important.
———————————
What do the numbers on the map mean?
The map is divided into the numbered areas as defined by our Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Downtown Bellevue is area 520 and East Bellevue is area 530, as an example.
What do the colors mean?
Red means it’s a sellers’ market, a sellers’ advantage. Homes take less than 3 months to sell.
Yellow means a balanced market between buyers and sellers. Homes on the average take 3-6 months to sell.
Green means it’s a buyers’ market. Homes take longer than 6 months to sell.
If you take each area as shown on the map and look to the area number on the side of the map, it will tell you how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale if no other home came up on the market in that area.
It Was Mostly a Buyers' Market on Seattle's Eastside in September, 2010
King & Snohomish County Reat Estate, 9-30-10
Sellers’ markets on this map are in red and there is no red in Seattle or on Seattle’s eastside. Most of the neighborhoods are buyers’ markets, which are in green. Only two areas, Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft, which is area 530, and area 600, which is Woodinville, Bothell, Duvall, are balanced markets. Last month, Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft and Kirkland were the balanced markets.
A balanced market is when homes on average are selling between 3-6 months, which means there was a level playing field between buyers and sellers in those areas for that particular month. A buyers’ market means the homes on average are taking longer than 6 months to sell and a sellers’ market means the homes take less than 3 months to sell.
A real estate market is labeled a buyer or sellers’ market depending on the homes that actually sold that particular month. Since the sales can vary each month, the type of real estate market can very easily change, going back and forth between a buyer or seller advantage. Don’t count on the market staying the same each month in any area.
Remember, too, an area may be a buyers’ market and there can still be a terrific home that’s the best of the competition and sells with multiple offers or for full price. It’s always important to understand how much competition a particular home has and how well priced it is when compared to the competition. So look at the overall real estate market, look at the market in your neighborhood, and then look at the specific home and how well it’s priced for that market. Weigh all of this information when making a buying decision or a decision as to how to price your home.
What do the numbers on the map mean?
The map is divided into the numbered areas as defined by our Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Downtown Bellevue is area 520 and East Bellevue is area 530, as an example.
What do the colors mean?
Red means it’s a sellers’ market, a sellers’ advantage.
Yellow means a balanced market between buyers and sellers.
Green means it’s a buyers’ market.
If you take each area as shown on the map and look to the area number on the side of the map, it will tell you how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale if no other home came up on the market in that area.
Seattle-Eastside Real Estate is Mostly Green, A Buyers' Market
- King & Snohomish County Real Estate Activity 8-31-10
The Seattle-eastside has flipped back almost completely to a buyers’ market. Two areas, Redmond and East Bellevue near Microsoft and Kirkland, were more balanced real estate markets, with the market time to sell a home falling between 3 to 6 months. If you check out what the colors represent below, you can see how much of King County real estate is in the buyers’ camp right now. With today’s low interest rates and the ability to negotiate strongly because of this market trend, it’s probably a better time to buy a home now than when everyone was rushing to beat the expiration of the tax credit. The savings would be spread out over a longer time period, but would be worth far more than the one time $8000 tax credit. If you do decide to buy, remember to look for a home you can grow in that’s close to transportation, shopping, schools, and jobs. A home that meets these criteria will hold its value better.
What do the numbers on the map mean?
The map is divided into the numbered areas as defined by our Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Downtown Bellevue is area 520 and East Bellevue is area 530, as an example.
What do the colors mean?
Red means it’s a sellers’ market, a sellers’ advantage.
Yellow means a balanced market between buyers and sellers.
Green means it’s a buyers’ market.
If you take each area as shown on the map and look to the area number on the side of the map, it will tell you how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale if no other home came up on the market in that area.
There Were No Sellers Markets in the Seattle Area in July, 2010
King & Snohomish County Real Estate, 7-31-10
There were no sellers’ market in July. “Red” indicates a sellers’ market with homes selling in less than 3 months. If you look at the map above, all the Seattle markets are either a buyer’s market or a balanced market between buyers and sellers.
There’s a mix on Seattle’s eastside. Some markets are buyers’ markets such as West Bellevue and the Sammamish plateau cities of Sammamish, North Bend, Preston, and Fall City. Homes in these real estate markets took on average over 6 months to sell. The majority of Seattle Eastside real estate was a balanced market with homes selling between 3-6 months.
The state of the real estate market is a huge contrast from just three months ago when there was no “green” on the map at all.
- King Snohomish Counties Real Estate Market 4-30-10
Clearly, the tax credit did its magic during that time. Is it the economy, job situation or is it the lack of urgency with interest rates slated to be low for a long time that is keeping buyers from making a home purchase? I’ve heard opinions about all three reasons as the cause for the slow moving real estate market. What do you think?
__________________________________________________________________________________
What do the numbers on the map mean?
The map is divided into the numbered areas as defined by our Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Downtown Bellevue is area 520 and East Bellevue is area 530, as an example.
What do the colors mean?
Red means it’s a sellers’ market, a sellers’ advantage.
Yellow means a balanced market between buyers and sellers.
Green means it’s a buyers’ market.
If you take each area as shown on the map and look to the area number on the side of the map, it will tell you how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale if no other home came up on the market in that area.
