Seattle Eastside Real Estate: The Glass is Half Full, Not Half Empty
It’s time to accept the reality of the market in Seattle and on Seattle’s eastside. More than likely, it’s going to be the way it is for a few more years, with single digit appreciation after that.
It’s a more realistic market. It doesn’t mean it’s bad. It’s still challenging to sell a home, but it’s not impossible. Homes are selling everyday. There have been many successful sales and there will continue to be successful real estate sales in 2011. On Seattle’s eastside, 7310 homes sold last year. Short sales and foreclosures will still happen. Which, unfortunately, means there will be people who are suffering through these tougher, more realistic times. But the majority of sales on the eastside are not short or distressed sales.
If you are thinking of selling your home, it won’t happen overnight, but it can, and does, happen.
- 2010: 9,594 homes and condos were pending (received an offer from a buyer). There were 7310 firm sales.
- 2009: 8,842 homes were pending.
- 2008: 7419 homes were pending.
Right now in the Seattle area real estate market, most homes are selling in 3-6 months. This is the now the “normal” market time to sell a home. Some homes will sell very quickly depending on the local competition and the price and condition of the home, others will languish and maybe never sell. This will be the typical pattern we’ll see in Seattle area real estate sales for the near future.
Don’t put your home on the market unless you’re clear on the pricing, clear on what the market will bear. This is not a market where you can “try” a price and then come down. If you beat the competition to start, you’ll probably make more money in the long run. Too often, sellers have “tried” a higher price and ended up selling their home for far less.
Is it moving, making a lifestyle change, or the money that’s more important to you right now? If it’s the move that’s more important because you need more space, downsizing, relocating, etc., then plan to move and do it right. Get your home gleaming and ready for the market with a value added sticker price. Your home will need to outshine the competition with a pristine look and a “beat the competition” price. If you price your home right where all your competition is, your home may not stand out.
If more money than the current market will bear is more important, then maybe this isn’t the right time to sell. However, plan on staying put for 5 or even 7 years to realize some significant appreciation in your home’s value. But remember, if there’s only 3% appreciation over 5 years, that’s 15% more. Let’s say you have a home that is worth $500,000 in this market, in 5 years at 3% appreciation, it will be worth $515,000. A 5% increase is $25,000 to $525,000. The increase is nothing to sneeze at, but with 5-7 more years of wear and tear, there’s something that needs to be done with most every house. Any future appreciation should factor in some costs for maintenance and updating.
For those buying, home ownership has gone back to what it always has been, shelter, a place to hang your hat that you enjoy. It’s a lifestyle choice, not a banking machine or something where you can make a “killing.” If you decide to buy, and some of you won’t, then evaluate your home for how it fits your lifestyle. Pick a place to live that matches your wallet and that you enjoy. Pick a place with good access to amenities: schools, shopping, parks, economic centers and easy access to commuting services. When you sell your home in the future, the home will be in a better position, literally and figuratively, to capture any appreciation. The homes located close to conveniences will become increasingly more desirable in this decade.
The glass is “half full” in Seattle area real estate. The media will continue to talk about the “bad” real estate market, but the fact is, the people who need or want to move are still going forward with their plans. Home sellers will not see the appreciation of the past, but home buyers should be able to purchase a good value and a great home. Remember if you’re a seller who’ll be buying another home, you’ll have a great chance of making a great deal on your home purchase.
It wasn’t “perfect’ for buyers back when we all thought the real estate market was great. Many of today’s sellers need to think back to when they bought their home. Buyers often competed for the same home with other buyers and paid full or over full price. Now it’s not perfect for sellers.
Sellers have to be ready to meet the market. Buyers will be looking for the best value out there. That won’t change any time soon. This is our new “normal” market.
This is the “State of Real Estate.”  Our glass is “half full” rather than “half empty.” We’re still doing better than most areas here in the Seattle area.
How Many Real Estate Sales Were on Seattle's Eastside in Dec 2010 Compared to 2009?
[googlemaps http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Bellevue,+WA&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=23.403932,58.271484&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Bellevue,+King,+Washington&ll=47.610377,-122.200679&spn=0.310148,0.910492&z=10&output=embed&w=425&h=350]
Sales were much better in December, 2010 than Dec, 2009 almost everywhere, but not across the board. In 4 of the 7 Seattle-eastside real estate areas, sales percentages were up from 2009 t0 2010. Sales increases ranged from 2% in South Bellevue and Issaquah to 40% in Redmond/East Bellevue. East Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft were hit pretty hard in December, 2009, but bounced back to be the strongest area on the eastside for most of 2010.
This month, I’ve included the total number of homes sold in each area in 2010.  Some of the numbers are small, such as West Bellevue, when compared to areas such as Sammamish, etc.  This is because West Bellevue is a much smaller area than Sammamish/North Bend/Snoqualmie/Fall City/and parts of Issaquah combined.  Some of the areas cover huge numbers of homes and others do not.
The drop in the number of homes for sale on Seattle’s eastside continued in December, but did not hit the lowest point for the year. The number of homes for sale dropped to just above 11,000 at the close of 2010. Despite fewer homes on the market, home sales were moving in December. As I’ve said before, the homes with the best value proposition of price and condition got the attention of the buyers. Those were the homes that sold.
How did December, 2009 compare to December, 2010 in your neighborhood?
(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 15.5%.
Median sales price was virtually the same: $499,900 to $499,450.
The number of homes for sale increased by 17.5% and the number of home sales were the same as last year plus one home!
A total of 1755 homes sold in 2010.
The odds of selling a home were 20.5%.
Median sales price decreased by 5% to $424,500 from $445,000.
The number of homes for sale was down by 18% and sales were up by 40%.
A total of 797 homes sold in 2010.
The odds of selling a home were 19%.
Median price decreased from $610,450 to $569,995.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 6% and sales were up by 2%.
A total of 1012 homes sold in 2010.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median price was up from $410,944 to $437,000.
The number of homes for sale declined by 3% and sales were up by 11.5%.
A total of 1473 homes sold in 2010.
The odds of selling a home were 16%.
Median price increased to $549,000 from $491,000.
The number of homes for sale declined by 17% and sales were down by 10%.
A total of 794 homes sold in 2010.
The odds of selling a home were 12%.
Median pricing was down from $847,440 to $729,000.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 8% and sales decreased by 26.5%.
The total number of homes sold in 2010 was 415.
Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 12%
Median pricing decreased from $549,950 to $524,970.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 5% and sales decreased by 16%.
A total of 766 homes sold in 2010.
If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact me.
December, 2010, A Surprise in the Seattle Eastside Real Estate Market

How did Seattle’s eastside end its year in real estate? Surprising to some, there was a huge increase in the number of homes sold in some areas when compared to last year. Pending sales for the year on the eastside were up by 10%. Only a few of the eastside neighborhoods had home sales which were down from last year.
Several theories were proposed in The Seattle Times wrap up on December real estate:
• The market finally has worked its way through the lull it fell into after the tax credits’ expiration.
• Buyers are climbing off the fence, even if they suspect prices will continue slipping, because they fear interest rates will rise and wipe out any savings.
• There may have been a push to get some long-languishing short sales — sales for less than sellers owe lenders — closed before year-end.
Is this a trend that will continue into the New Year?  It’s probably too early to say, but I’ll be watching over the next couple of months to see how 2011 real estate performs on the eastside.  Do you think this will be the start of a change in local area real estate?
The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in November ranged    from 12% to 20%, with an average 16%    absorption rate.*  Most home    sellers on Seattle’s eastside had a 16/100 chance of selling their  home   last month.
*(The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month. If the absorption rate is 10%, then 10 out of the 100 homes for sale sold that month.)
December, 2010 2499 homes for sale 397 homes sold 16% odds of selling.
November, 2010 2818 homes for sale 455 (was 485) homes sold 16%(was 17%) odds of selling.*
December, 2009 2584 homes for sale 343 homes sold 13% odds of selling.
*(Some home sales fail because of the buyer financing or an inspection. The number of sales is updated when we find out the actual number of homes that sold during that time.)
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December, 2009 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to December, 2010:
- The average  price of pending homes (recently sold homes)   went from  $536,205 to $513,009.
 
- On 12-27-10, there were 11,015 King County homes (houses   and condos) for sale. There were approximately 4000 less homes for sale, 32% less, in King County now than in July.
 
- The number of homes sold on Seattle’s Eastside: down .7% from last year. The sales were almost the same as December, 2009.
 
- Number of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside: The number of homes for sale in December, 2010 was about 75 less than 2009.
- If you look at 2010, in 9 out of 12 months, 400-500 homes sold each month. But the number of homes for sale varied from July’s high of 3400+ to December’s low of 2499.
Best odds of selling: East Bellevue/Redmond areas around Microsoft.
Worst odds of selling: West Bellevue and downtown Redmond and Carnation.
Biggest increase in sales from last year: East Bellevue/Redmond near Microsoft.
Smallest increase in sales from last year: Downtown Redmond and Carnation.
Decline in home sales from last year: Two out of the 7 Seattle-eastside areas had fewer sales, West Bellevue and Sammamish/Issaquah/North Bend/ Fall City.
The peak of homes for sale in 2008: July, 4370 homes.
The peak of homes for sale in 2009: June, 3859 homes.
The peak of homes for sale in 2010: August, 3492 homes.
The number of eastside homes for sale at the start of 2010: 2588 homes.
The number of eastside homes for sale in December, 2010: 2499 homes.
Seattle Economist Makes Real Estate Predictions
Thinking about the economy in 2011? Who isn’t these days?
Local economist, Matthew Gardner presented his predictions for next year’s economy and the real estate market.
(photo: Andrew@cubagallery)
Here are a few of his predictions for 2011:
Economic growth will remain slow, particularly for the first half of the year.
An “easing” in the economy should been seen as the year progresses, helping to restore some consumer confidence.
The  unemployment rate will drop some, but improvement will be slow.
A 5% decline in home prices across U.S.
Inflation will be minimal, benefiting home buyers.
Interest rates should go higher, but still remain on the lower side.
What do you see happening in your area?
Hope your 2011 will be looking up!
How Did November, 2010 Real Estate Sales Do In Your Seattle-Eastside Neighborhood?
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In 5 of the 7 Seattle-eastside real estate areas, sales percentages were up by a lot from last year!  Sales increases ranged from 13.5% in Redmond/Carnation to 47% in Redmond/East Bellevue.
We also saw a huge drop in the number of homes for sale on Seattle’s eastside over the past few months. A higher percentage of home sales and less homes for sale is good news. The market is still challenging. The homes with the best value proposition of price and condition grab the attention of the buyers. These are homes that are selling.
How did November, 2009 compare to November, 2010 in your neighborhood?
(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 16%.
Median sales price decreased from $552,500 to $474,000.
The number of homes for sale increased by 12% and sales were down by 15% from last year.
The odds of selling a home were 22%.
Median sales price decreased to $416,500 from $479,000.
The number of homes for sale was down by 12% and sales were up by 47%.
The odds of selling a home were 22%.
Median price decreased from $685,000 to $599,419.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 10% and sales were up by 26%.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 15%.
Median price was down from $411,750 to $405,000.
The number of homes for sale declined by 3% and sales were up by 41%.
The odds of selling a home were 17%.
Median price decreased to $549,950 from $739,000.
The number of homes for sale declined by 16% and sales were up by 13.5%.
The odds of selling a home were 15%.
Median pricing was down from $996,500 to $829,500.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 9% and sales decreased     by 3%.
Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 16 %
Median pricing decreased from $559,900 to $525,000.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 3% and sales increased by 16%.
If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact me.
Have a terrific holiday season and Happy New Year!
How Was The Seattle Eastside Real Estate Market in November, 2010?

Are Seattle-eastside home sales going “merrily” along? Merrily may be an extreme word to use in this case to describe Seattle-eastside real estate, however, it’s good news to see in 5 of the 7 eastside areas, there were more home sales this November than last. In some areas, there was a huge increase in the number of homes sold when compared to last year.
The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in November ranged   from 15% to 23%, with an average 17%    absorption rate.*  Most home   sellers on Seattle’s eastside had a 17/100 change of selling their home   last month.
*(The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month. If the absorption rate is 10%, then 10 out of the 100 homes for sale sold that month.)
November, 2010 2818 homes for sale 485 homes sold 17% odds of selling.
October, 2010 3267 homes for sale 477(was 519) homes sold 15% (was 16%) odds of selling.*
September, 2010 3487 homes for sale 422 homes sold 12% odds of selling.*
November, 2009 2943 homes for sale 431 homes sold 15% odds of selling.
*(Some home sales fail because of the buyer financing or an inspection. The number of sales is updated when we find out the actual number of homes that sold during that time.)
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November, 2009 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to November, 2010:
- The average  price of pending homes (recently sold homes)   went from  $612,955 to $532,907.
 
- As of this past week, there were 11,519 King County homes (houses   and condos) for sale, there are about 3000 less homes for sale in King County now than in July.
 
- The number of homes sold on Seattle’s Eastside: down 15% from last year.
 
- Number of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside: About 450 fewer homes for sale than in October, 669 less than in September and 125 less than November of 2009.
- If you look at all 4 months worth of sales above, you can see the number of homes sold does not vary as much as the number of homes for sale. Each month, between 422-485 homes sold. Whereas the number of homes for sale varied by as much as 600 homes.
Best odds of selling: South Bellevue/Issaquah, and East Bellevue/Redmond areas around Microsoft.
Worst odds of selling: West Bellevue and Woodinville/North Kirkland/Kenmore and Bothell.
Biggest increase in sales from last year: East Bellevue/Redmond near Microsoft.
Smallest increase in sales from last year: Kirkland, which had the highest increase in sales last month.
Decline in home sales from last year: There was a decline in 2 out of the 7 Seattle-eastside areas. Sammamish/Issaquah/North Bend/ Fall City had the largest decline in home sales.
The peak of homes for sale in 2008: July, 4370 homes.
The peak of homes for sale in 2009: June, 3859 homes.
The peak of homes for sale in 2010: August, 3492 homes.
The number of eastside homes for sale at the start of 2010: 2584 homes
The number of eastside homes for sale now: 2818 homes.
How are home sales going in your neighborhood?  Do you see less “for sale” signs out there this past month?
How Did October, 2010 Real Estate Sales Do In Your Seattle-Eastside Neighborhood?
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Ok, the real estate market is slower, that much we all know,  but it’s not dead and there are homes selling. These are the homes that  stand out compared to the competition, because they show well and are  seen as a value.  Today’s pricing is similar to 2005 pricing.  I’ll post  another piece which shows these numbers.
Sales were down by a huge amount in Woodinville, Kenmore,  Bothell,  Duvall, and North Kirkland.  The sales dropped by 42% from  last year.
The number of homes for sale in King County has dropped below 13,000 for the first time since early May. On Seattle’s eastside, the number of homes for sale is down by about 200 homes. These numbers are headed in the right direction.
In “Microsoft land”, the neighborhoods of Redmond and East Bellevue near Microsoft’s home base, the sales prices actually went up by about 1% in value. Remember, the median pricing for any month will reflect the sales for that month and it is important to look at several months or more to see the real trend. I wish I could say this month’s increase was the norm, but if you look at past posts and the charts in the link above, you’ll see this is not the case.
Expect to see more homes come off the market as we head  towards the holidays.  We started the year with 9700+ homes for sale in  King County, which was the lowest number of the year. So if you plan to  sell next year, think about getting on the market early, when your home will have less competition.
Happy Turkey Day!
How did October, 2009 compare to October, 2010 in your neighborhood?
(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 20%.
Median sales price decreased from $509,000 to $477,500.
The number of homes for sale increased by 16% and sales were down by 9% from last year.
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median sales price increased to $449,900 from $445,000.
The number of homes for sale was up by 2% and sales were even with last year. 
The odds of selling a home were 15%.
Median price decreased to $514,500 from $592,500.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 1.5% and sales were down by 28%.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 11%.
Median price was down from $429,975 to $403,450.
The number of homes for sale declined by 2% and sales were down by 41%.
The odds of selling a home were 19%.
Median price decreased to $488,900 from $500,000.
The number of homes for sale declined by 7% and sales were down by 9%.
The odds of selling a home were 9.5%.
Median pricing was down from $1,150,000 to $948,000.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 9% and sales decreased     by 27%.
Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 16 %
Median pricing decreased from $449,995 to $474,950.
The number of homes for sale increased by 8% and sales decreased by 32%.
What real estate activity have you seen in your neighborhood?  If you would like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact me.





