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How Many Real Estate Sales Were On Seattle's Eastside in March, 2011?
Seattle Eastside Real Estate Sales Through March 2011
I see a trend happening in eastside real estate. The Seattle Times was wondering if there was a trend being established in Seattle area real estate. It’s happening on the eastside. This trend started in December of last year. Since that time, the number of homes selling each month has increased. Home sales have almost doubled from December’s 351 sales to March’s 657 sales. That’s a huge increase, a 47% increase in real estate sales! It sure sounds like an upward trend to me.
Match this news with the fact that the number of eastside homes for sale has only increased by 150 homes since December and there’s a good real estate market on the eastside. Last year, there almost 440 more homes for sale in March.
In March 2011, there were 2540 homes for sale and 657 had offers. The number 452 in the last column on the chart shows how many homes sold and closed that month. In order for these sales to close in March, the offers would have happened in January or February.
So far this year, we haven’t seen the number of homes for sale jump up by much. But if many more homes come on the market, the upward trend in home sales could slow down. An increase in the number of homes for sale could have an impact on how quickly homes sell.
Are you seeing more sold signs in your neighborhood?
The Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Market Is Better Than You Think!
Number of Properties for Sale in King County
It’s simple. Mix one part law of supply and demand; one part the more positive economy; and one part more ready, willing, and able buyers. Mix with more realistic pricing that meets the market demand. You now have the well priced homes selling and the most positive real estate market the eastside has had since mid 2007.
The supply of King homes and condos, the number of those for sale, is shown above. This week, near the end of the first quarter of 2011, there are about 2000 less homes and condos for sale in King County than last year at this time. This means there are 16% less homes and condos for sale. That’s a big difference. It’s noticeable in a lot of neighborhoods. It’s noticeable to a lot of buyers.
The eastside statistics mirror those in the county. There are pockets on the eastside where home sales are popping, because there are only a few really great homes that come on the market. I’ve seen this happen in different price ranges and different cities all over the eastside, including Bellevue, Kirkland, and Sammamish.
Seattle Eastside Residential Real Estate Sales Through February 2011
Supply is key to the more positive eastside real estate market. With less supply out there and more homes selling (other than March and April of 2010, which was the result of the tax credit) than any other month in a few years, this is a stronger real estate market.
With less supply, it’s a faster paced market. It’s happening in many eastside neighborhoods, but not all. It’s happening with some homes, but not all. With less to choose from, the better valued homes are selling more quickly. There are some great homes that I’ve previewed or shown over the last month and I can almost tell which homes will be sold inside of a week or two. Almost everyday we see the number of pending sales outstrip the number of new listings coming on the market. And yes, there are homes still sitting on the market for a long time, are distressed sales or homes that don’t sell. Despite this, there’s a big difference in the eastside real estate market.
Now I know you’re going to say this is not what you’re reading in the media. Here’s the latest real estate article in The Seattle Times continuing with the same doom and gloom report about the real estate market. From the this article:
In the Seattle metropolitan area, which includes King, Snohomish and Pierce counties, prices are back where they were in September 2004, according to Case-Shiller.
Two things to consider when evaluating the above statement. The first is Case-Shiller lumps King County statistics in with Pierce and Snohomish Counties. King County has a far more positive economy than the other two counties. Seattle and Bellevue, the economic hubs of the region are both in King County. The number of distressed properties is much smaller in King County than elsewhere in the region.
The second thing to remember is Case-Shiller is reporting on the past few months, not what’s happening in the market today.
I agree with Case-Shiller regarding home values, although home values may not be quite as low as 2004 pricing in some areas. Prices are down and probably will stay at these levels for a while. I don’t anticipate prices going up any time soon.
But I do see a stronger market in many eastside neighborhoods. People are ready to move on, literally, and they’re tired of waiting. Buyers are ready to buy and more sellers are pricing their homes to meet the current market demand. All in all, right now the Seattle-eastside has the best real estate market it’s had since 2007. It’s not the old real estate market of the past, but it’s a good, realistic market.
How Many Real Estate Sales Were in Your Seattle-Eastside City in February 2011?
[googlemaps http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Bellevue,+WA&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=23.403932,58.271484&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Bellevue,+King,+Washington&ll=47.610377,-122.200679&spn=0.310148,0.910492&z=10&output=embed&w=425&h=350]
How well did homes sell in February, 2011 in your neighborhood?
(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)
Thirty-five percent of the homes for sale around Microsoft in Redmond and East Bellevue sold last month. That’s an incredible number and one we haven’t seen for years. Overall, February was the most positive month for eastside home sales in the past several years!
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 23%.
Median sales price dropped: $499,995 to $489,990. Home values have been more stable here than anywhere else on the eastside.
There were 605 homes for sale.
A total of 153 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 35%.
Median sales price increased by 2% to $430,000 to $439,950.
157 homes were for sale
A total of 57 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 25.5%.
Median price decreased from $579,990 to $500,000.
283 homes were for sale.
A total of 83 homes sold.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 24.5%.
Median price was down from $397,000 to $375,000.
549 homes were for sale.
A total of 150 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 20%.
Median price increased to $542,725 from $537,500, a 1% increase.
251 homes were for sale.
A total of 60 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median pricing was down from $981,750 to $899,000.
174 homes were for sale.
A total of 37 homes sold.
Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 16%
Median pricing decreased from $474,950 to $450,000.
293 homes were for sale.
A total of 52 homes sold.
If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact me.
There Are Some "Hot" Real Estate Markets Around Seattle
There are some hot real estate markets in the Seattle area. These “red” hot areas are shown below. The usual suspects of Queen Anne and Capital Hill experienced a hot market in February. The newest suspect, East Bellevue and Redmond near Microsoft, my neck of the Seattle real estate market, was also going strong. In that area, 35% of the available homes sold last month, the best odds on the eastside. It’s exciting to see, since it’s been years since we’ve had “red” or a seller’s market on the eastside.*
I keep hearing about homes selling quickly and with multiple offers in a variety of price ranges. Since most of the eastside is a balanced real estate market,** this only happens for the best homes. It happens for the “red” hot homes with hot prices and in beautiful condition. There are number of other homes that take a while to sell, often with price reductions before getting the offer.
Hotter King & Snohomish County real estate markets 2-28-11
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What do the colors mean?
*Red means it’s a sellers’ market, a sellers’ advantage. Homes take less than 3 months to sell.
**Yellow means a balanced market between buyers and sellers. Homes on the average take 3-6 months to sell.
Green means it’s a buyers’ market. Homes take longer than 6 months to sell.
If you take each area as shown on the map and look to the area number on the side of the map, it will tell you how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale if no other home came up on the market in that area.
What do the 3 digit numbers on the map mean?
The map is divided into the numbered areas as defined by our Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Downtown Bellevue is area 520 and East Bellevue is area 530, as an example.
Can you see from the map how the real estate was doing in your city did last month? If you’d like more specific information for your neighborhood, please feel free to contact me.
How Many Real Estate Sales were on Seattle's Eastside in February 2011?
Seattle Eastside Residential Real Estate Sales Through February, 2011
Despite what the media is reporting, February Seattle-eastside real estate sales were the strongest we’ve seen in a very long time. If you look all the way back to December, 2009, there were more real estate sales in February than any other month, except March and April of last year. More homes sold last March and April because of the tax credit. However, this February’s higher sales numbers had nothing to do with a tax credit, but everything to do with buyers being more ready and willing to buy a home. In February there were 2446 homes for sale and 565 homes sold.
The other good news is the number of homes for sale last month was still low when compared to the other months shown on the chart. Because of this, there was a higher percentage of homes selling, 23% in fact.
So far this year, real estate sales on the eastside of Seattle are trending upward. Because of the strong economic base found in such eastside cities as Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, and Issaquah, I believe this trend will continue, at least for the near future.
If the number of homes for sale jumps up, it could have an impact on how quickly homes will sell. If we stay with lower levels of inventory, it should help the homes on the market sell more quickly. But if we end up with numbers like we often do in the summer when we have had 14000+ homes in King County on the market, sales will slow down.
Are you seeing more real estate sales in your neighborhood?
Top 7 Reasons Real Estate Sales Fail to Close
I’m gearing up to do monthly statistics on how the real estate market is doing on Seattle’s eastside. Every month I report on how many homes have sold and I also mention how many real estate sales have failed. Contracts on homes close all the time, but there’s always a certain number each month that don’t close. There are many reasons why this can happen.
Here are 7 of the top reasons home sales fail to close:
Buyer rejects the seller’s disclosure form. The disclosure form, form 17, is a 5 page document delivered to the buyer no later than 3 days after a purchase and sale agreement (the contract) is mutually agreed upon by both parties. The buyer has 3 business days to review the form. The disclosure form covers many issues about the home, including defects, remodeling, permits, whether the home is on septic or sewer and hooked up to public water or on a well. If the buyer disapproves of anything in the form, the buyer has the right to terminate the purchase and sale agreement.
The inspection falls through. Inspections fall through because there’s something structurally wrong with the house. The structural problem can’t be fixed, the seller refuses to fix it or the buyer no longer wants to buy the home because of the problem. Sometimes the repairs requested can be remedied, but the buyer and seller don’t come to agreement on which repairs will be done or how to do the repairs. The buyer can also terminate a contract based on the inspection without giving a reason to the seller.
The buyer walks over neighborhood review. Some offers include a clause giving the buyer an opportunity to check out schools, crime, views, and other neighborhood issues in the 3 business days after an offer is signed. If the buyer finds something they don’t like about the neighborhood, they can terminate the agreement and walk away.
Good old fashioned buyer’s remorse. Buyers get cold feet and decide not to buy the home. Buyers have the right to serve the seller a termination notice, get their earnest money returned, and continue to look for a home without giving the seller a specific reason. This can happen only during specific times outlined in the contract. For example, the buyer can simply terminate the contract during a neighborhood review or the review of the disclosure form.
A low appraisal on the home. The home sells for $500,000, but the bank appraiser says the home is only worth $485,000. The seller doesn’t agree to the lower purchase price to the appraisal price, so the buyer can choose not to buy the home.
Running up a credit card bill. The buyer buys a new car before closing the sale on the new house, running up a credit card bill. Incurring more debt before closing can mean the buyer no longer qualifies for the loan.
Death of a buyer or seller. I recently heard of this happening in a sale on the eastside. It happened during one of my closings a few years ago. The seller passed away during the closing period. Luckily, the heirs saw the sale through. Heirs can contest a sale if it’s in process.
It sounds pretty daunting when you read this list, but the reality is most months only 1 or 2% of the home sales fail to close. Clearly, the majority of homes that sell go all the way to the closing table.
By the way, each state has different contracts with different clauses, so what happens in Washington State real estate contracts stays in Washington State. This post is not legal advice. If you have questions or concerns about real estate contracts, you should consult an attorney.
What are some of the other reasons home purchases fail to close? There are many more reasons out there. Do you know of some unique situations that caused real estate sales to fail?
How Badly is Seattle's Eastside Real Estate Affected by Distressed Sales
“Distressed Homes Sales Dragging Prices Down” screamed the print version of The Seattle Times, while the online version shouted “Median Home Price in King County Drops in February, Dragged Down by Bank Repos.
Pretty scary headlines. Scary headlines certainly attract readers. Distressed home sales, bank repos and short sales, are out there and affecting home values, but in varying degrees depending on which neighborhood is being discussed. If you read further down in the article:
The percentage of King County single-family homes that fit the “distressed” category in February varied widely by area, according to Windermere’s analysis.
By lumping all of King County together, it gives an inaccurate picture of Seattle real estate. Seattle real estate is far more localized. The neighborhoods of Queen Anne and Capitol Hill are usually the strongest performing areas, while the eastside suburbs of Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, and others are doing better than most of King County. The suburbs of Mercer Island and Medina have few distressed properties for sale.
The chart below gives a picture of the 2010 distressed property sales for all the counties around Seattle. My focus is on Seattle’s eastside neighborhoods, since it’s the market where I work. The eastside data is broken out from the rest of King County, because it’s usually different than the rest of the county. The pattern for distressed sales activity can be seen through 2010. The eastside had less distressed properties for sale than the rest of King County. I expect a similar pattern to continue in 2011, although the numbers may be different. When the 1st quarter numbers are released, I’ll report those numbers.
Irrespective of the distressed sales issue, homes are selling well in some areas. Prices are less than they were, but there are fewer homes for sale in many neighborhoods. So the old law of supply and demand is working in these neighborhoods. Near Microsoft in Redmond, there were three home sales that closed this past week. All the homes sold in less than 8 days. One was for full price, another for slightly over, and one sold for about 2% less than the asking price. Neighborhoods in Kirkland have a lot less homes for sale than is typical.
Distressed home sales are a part of the picture of Seattle eastside real estate, but they are not the complete picture. Too bad the screaming headlines didn’t balance more of the good news with the bad.
2010 Distressed Properties by Seattle Area Counties
What is happening in your neighborhood? Are homes selling? Are there a lot of distressed sales?
How Many Real Estate Sales Were on Seattle’s Eastside in January 2011 Compared to 2010?
[googlemaps http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Bellevue,+WA&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=23.403932,58.271484&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Bellevue,+King,+Washington&ll=47.610377,-122.200679&spn=0.310148,0.910492&z=10&output=embed&w=425&h=350]
How did January, 2010 compare to January, 2011 in your neighborhood?
(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales, so if 10 out of 100 homes sold, the odds of selling would be 10/100 or 10%)
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median sales price hardly dropped: $499,900 to $493,975. Home values have been more stable here than anywhere else on the eastside.
The number of homes for sale increased by 4% and the number of home sales decreased by 4%.
A total of 118 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 28%.
Median sales price decreased by 9% to $409,925 from $450,000.
The number of homes for sale was down by 16% and sales were down by 14%.
A total of 54 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 19.5%.
Median price decreased from $559,900 to $460,000.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 10% and sales were down by 30%.
A total of 63 homes sold.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median price was down from $389,725 to $359,900.
The number of homes for sale declined by 3% and sales were down by 8%.
A total of 105 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 18%.
Median price increased to $506,950 from $499,950, a 1% increase.
The number of homes for sale declined by 19% and sales were down by 35%.
A total of 52 homes sold.
The odds of selling a home were 21%.
Median pricing was up from $899,000 to $1,000,000.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 11% and sales increased by 48%.
The total of 40 homes sold.
Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 20%
Median pricing decreased from $524,990 to $376,250.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 5% and sales decreased by 8%.
A total of 52 homes sold.
If you’d like more specific information about your neighborhood or home, feel free to contact me.
Has a Positive Trend Started in Seattle-Eastside Real Estate?
The positive trend in Seattle’s eastside real estate continued from December, 2010 to January’s sales. Maybe the uptick in December was not an anomaly? We’ll still need to wait and see.
This, again, is what the Seattle Times said after December’s home sales numbers were released:
• Buyers are climbing off the fence, even if they suspect prices will continue slipping, because they fear interest rates will rise and wipe out any savings.
There was a lot more “climbing off the fence” in January. Truthfully, the number of sales hasn’t increased all that much, but the number of homes the buyers have to choose from is a lot less. It’s that old law of supply and demand, which is what we call the absorption rate.*
There are fewer homes to choose from, so the good ones are grabbed up. That’s what feels different. The “fence sitters’ are jumping on the good home buys. Some homes that hit the market are gone in a matter of days. The homes that are priced right and show well are the homes that sell quickly.
Since the last two months have had stronger absorption rates, I hesitate to call it a trend just yet, but I’ll keep you posted. I can tell you that the number of buyers looking at homes, multiple offers (gasp), and the absorption rate (see below) have all increased since the first of the year.
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Seattle Eastside Real Estate Sales-January 2011
The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in January ranged from 18% to 28%, with an average 19.5% absorption rate.* Most home sellers on Seattle’s eastside had a 19/100 chance of selling their home last month.
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*(The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month. If the absorption rate is 10%, then 10 out of the 100 homes for sale sold that month.)
January, 2011 2392 homes for sale 467 homes sold 19% odds of selling.
December, 2010 2499 homes for sale 369 (was 397) homes sold 15% (was 16%) odds of selling.**
January, 2010 2588 homes for sale 460 homes sold 18% odds of selling.
**(Some home sales fail because of the buyer financing or an inspection. The number of sales is updated when we find out the actual number of homes that sold during that time.)
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January, 2011 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to January, 2010:
- The average price of pending homes (recently sold homes) went from $525,462 to $495,080, a 6% decrease in pricing.
- On 2-14-11, there were 10,530 King County homes (houses and condos) for sale.
- The number of homes sold on Seattle’s Eastside: down 11% from last year.
- Number of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside: The number of homes for sale in January, 2011 was 7% less than January, 2010.
Best odds of selling: East Bellevue/Redmond around Microsoft.
Worst odds of selling: Sammamish/Issaquah/North Bend/ Fall City.
Decline in home sales from last year: Three out of the 7 Seattle-eastside areas had fewer sales, South Bellevue, Kirkland, and Sammamish/Issaquah/North Bend/ Fall City.
What’s happening with real estate in your neighborhood?
Seattle Economist's Predictions for the 2011 Real Estate Market, Part II
Matthew Gardner, of Gardner Economics, spoke at our annual Windermere Real Estate/East, Inc kick-off meeting today. Mr. Gardner shared his thoughts about the local economy and Seattle real estate. Here are some of the highlights:
- Seattle will recover more quickly than other parts of the west.
- Growth will be slow and from the center, Seattle, out to the suburbs.
- The private sector has increased job growth in the last 4-5 months and will continue to do so.
Private Sector Employment in the Seattle Area
- There will be more price corrections for those hi-rise condos that have not sold both in Seattle and Bellevue.
- Buyers are still looking for good deals and feel uncertainty remains.
- Prices are stable and, hopefully, will stay that way this year.
- Banks are not releasing all of the bank owned homes to sell. The banks would go bankrupt if they flooded the market with these homes, causing prices to drop.
- Mortgage rates will increase: over 5% this year, 6% in 2012, and 7% by 2014.
30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Predictions
Here’s a few of Mr. Gardner’s thoughts for 2011 from the first of the year.
What do you think? Is this what you see happening in the area and with real estate?
