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Are You Selling Your Home In The Next Five Years?
Are you selling your home in the next 5 years? Well, grab your camera now and take pictures of your yard. Seattle is beautiful right now, so take advantage of the natural color that surrounds your home. You’ve got a few months coming up, so start now and take photos throughout the spring and summer season. After all, you never know when you may decide to sell your home, it could be in the dead of winter when everything is gray here in Seattle. Photos of your home in any season can be used when selling your home, no matter what the time of year.
Seattle spring flowers
Spring in Seattle
Seattle Eastside Real Estate Was "Normal" in February, 2010
King and Snohomish County WA Real Estate, February, 2010
The truly “hot” Seattle real estate areas in February, 2010, those in red, are in the core neighborhoods of Seattle itself. However, almost all of the map is in “yellow”, which means the average market time for a home to sell in other Seattle areas is between 3-6 months. This means we’ve had another month with a very balanced, “normal” Seattle real estate market. A normal real estate market is when supply and demand balance out to be 3-6 months to get a home sold. A balanced market is not a reflection of home values, but a reflection of the real estate sales activity.
On most of Seattle’s eastside, home prices are down, but sales have gone up dramatically, anywhere from 52% to 193%, depending on the neighborhood. Prices are lower in most eastside areas, fewer homes have been on the market compared to last year, and more homes are selling.
Will the colors on the Seattle real estate map stay the same in the coming months? It’s hard to answer this question now, but I do know the number of homes coming up for sale is growing pretty quickly. The increase in the number of Seattle-eastside homes and condos for sale could impact the total number of properties that sell and the market time to get a sale. With the April 30th deadline for the home buyer tax credit, much will depend on how many homes are on the market and the interest rates. Check my March eastside blog posts next month to find out what will happen.
What’s your prediction for Seattle-eastside real estate in the coming months? Will “yellow,” representing a balanced real estate market between home buyers and sellers still be the predominant color on the map?
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What do the numbers on the map mean?
The map is divided into the numbered areas as defined by our Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Downtown Bellevue is area 520 and East Bellevue is area 530, as an example.
What do the colors mean?
Red means it’s a sellers’ market, a sellers’ advantage.
Yellow means a balanced market between buyers and sellers.
Green means its a buyers’ market.
If you take each area as shown on the map and look to the area number on the side of the map, it will tell you how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale if no other home came up on the market in that area.
How Did February, 2010 Home Sales Stack Up in Your Seattle-Eastside Neighborhood?
[googlemaps http://maps.google.com/maps?source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Seattle-eastside&sll=47.709762,-122.011414&sspn=0.310487,0.911865&ie=UTF8&split=1&radius=21.22&rq=1&ev=zo&hq=Seattle-eastside&hnear=&ll=47.709762,-122.011414&spn=0.310487,0.911865&t=h&output=embed&w=425&h=350]
How did February, 2009 stack up to February, 2010 in your neighborhood?
(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales.)
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 19.5%.
Median sales price dropped from $522,250 to $499,995.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 18% and sales were up by 98% from last year.
The odds of selling a home were 29%.
Median sales price dropped from $457,475 to $430,000.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 26% and sales were up by 120%.
The odds of selling a home were 25%.
Median price stayed the same at $579,950.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 30% and sales were up 193.5%.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 25%.
Median price increased to $397,000 from $381,450.
The number of homes for sale declined by 26% and sales were up by 95%.
The odds of selling a home were 21%.
Median price dropped from $687,000 to $537,500.
The number of homes for sale declined by 28% and sales were up by 106%.
The odds of selling a home were 16.5%.
Median pricing was down from $1,00,000 to $981,750.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 33% and sales increased by 52%.
Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 25%
Median pricing decreased to $474,950 from $524,900.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 27% and sales increased by 90%.
Median home prices in February, 2010 increased only in one Seattle-Eastside area, which includes Woodinville, North Kirkland, Bothell, and Duvall, when comparing 2-09 to 2-10. Although, if you look at the full year, prices in that area did not increase. Remember, this post only compares the month of February’s numbers to last February and does not include the entire year’s activity and information. South Bellevue and Issaquah home prices remained steady for the second month in a row, which is a very strong sign for those neighborhoods.
Most of the other Seattle-eastside neighborhoods experienced a reduction in sales price. The most significant decrease was in Kirkland, where median home values dropped by 21%. Sales in Kirkland, however, are up by 106%. I think Kirkland home buyers are feeling that real estate prices are more manageable in Kirkland and are more willing to buy a home in Kirkland now.
The increase in the number of home sales ranged from 52% in West Bellevue to 193.5% in South Bellevue and Issaquah. However, with the exception of West Bellevue, the increase in Seattle-eastside real estate sales was no less than 90% more than last February’s home sales.
The number of homes for sale in all Seattle-eastside neighborhoods was lower than last February with an average of 25% less homes for sale. This number will not be as low come March as more Seattle-eastside homes have been coming up for sale since the beginning of the month. Stay tuned for next month’s report, when I’ll have all the real estate data for the month.
I anticipate Seattle-eastside home sales to continue at this strong pace during the month of March as home buyers scramble to use the 2010 home buyer tax credit.
What do you think?
What Were The Odds of Selling Your Seattle-Eastside Home in Feb, 2010?
Seattle-Eastside Residential Real Estate Statistics-Feb 2010
The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in February, 2010 ranged from a low of 16.5% to a high of 29%, with an average 22% absorption rate. (The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month.)
February, 2010 2706 homes for sale 599 homes sold, 22% odds of selling.
January, 2010 2588 homes for sale, (n0w 477) 539 homes sold, (now 18%) 20% odds of selling.*
February, 2009 3574 homes for sale, 264 homes sold, 7% odds of selling.
*Adjusted from previous month’s numbers to reflect the actual number of homes sold and closed. Each month some sales fall apart and don’t close. A lower number of home sales may be reported at a later date to show the actual number of sales that did close. (see explanation below)
_____________________________________________________________
February, 2009 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to February, 2010:
- Home sales were up in all Seattle-Eastside cities.
- The number of homes for sale has begun its “spring creep up”. The year started out at the lowest point in three years. We’re now seeing more on the market. Expect to see a jump in homes for sale with the March report coming next month.
- The median price was down by 7%. (Keep in mind this is comparing last February’s numbers to this February and is not an indication of the total drop in price for the year.)
- Home sales on Seattle’s Eastside: up 103%!
- Number of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside: down 25%
Best odds of selling: Redmond, near Microsoft, and East Bellevue with the greatest odds of selling. Twenty-nine percent of the homes got offers.
Worst odds of selling: West Bellevue with only 16.5% of the homes getting accepted offers.
Biggest increase in sales from last year: South Bellevue with 193% increase in the number of home sales from last year.
Smallest increase in sales from last year: West Bellevue, with a 52% increase in home sales over last year.
Decline in real estate sales from last year: None on the eastside. More homes sold in all areas of the eastside this February than last February, which is no big surprise.
The peak of homes for sale in 2008: July, 4370 homes.
The peak of homes for sale in 2009: June, 3859 homes.
The number of eastside homes for sale at the start of 2010: 2584 homes
The number of eastside homes for sale now: 2706 homes.
Rate of home sales that failed: 12%
Will our more positive real estate market continue after the April 30th deadline for the home buyer tax credit? What do you think?
Should You Buy a Home on Seattle's Eastside Now or Wait?
Should you buy a home now on Seattle’s eastside now or wait until after the tax credit expires at the end of April?
People were talking on the Wall Street Journal site and on Zillow about this very issue. Today people don’t just ask, “How’s the real estate market?” They ask, “What do you think will happen to the real estate market after the tax credit?”
Here are some of the things people are wondering:
- Do I buy now?
- Do I wait?
- Will I get a better deal now or if I wait?
- Is it worth passing on the tax credit and waiting to see if prices come down after April 30th?
- Is it better to buy now because there is a healthy number of homes for sale and good interest rates?
- Will there be more homes to choose from later?
- Will interest rates go up and cancel out any possible decline in prices?
I got my crystal ball out as did many others. Money Magazine made a strong case for buying now. Warren Buffett, on the other hand, thought the real estate market would pick up in 2011. Luke Mullins of US News and World Report presented the positive aspects of home ownership, even in today’s real estate market. Truthfully, no one knows what will happen and we can only speculate about what may happen with prices, the number of homes on the market and interest rates. But all these variables should be considered when making a decision about whether to purchase a home now or later.
I believe there are good deals on a home now and will be after the tax credit, but it’s on a case by case basis. Here’s why I say this:
Right now…
$6500-8000 home buyer tax credit available for most buyers.
Historically low interest rates.
Good selection of homes, many with very realistic home sellers and prices.
Having the tax credit of $6500-8000 and terrific interest rates, increases buying power. Typically, your loan payment is amortized over 15 or 30 years, a lower interest rate means more dollars per month in your pocket.
Later…
Will prices drop after the tax credit goes away on April 30th? No one really knows. There may be more homes on the market, which we typically see in the summer months in the Seattle area. If so, the law of supply and demand will kick in. More homes + less demand= lower prices. But we really don’t know if this will happen. We don’t know if there will be less demand. We can only guess. We can only gamble on what may be.
However, there’s a good chance interest rates will go up, which means purchasing power will go down. If rates go up 1%, then purchasing power goes down by about 10%. This means if you could afford a home for $330,000, if rates do go up by 1%, you would then qualify for a home at $300,000.
The impact of interest rates on buying power
Buying a home will, obviously, be less expensive if prices drop (but we don’t know if they will), and mortgage rates could also be a higher ( again, just a guess, but looking pretty certain), which could more than cancel out any savings in the price of the home. Remember, I’m not just talking about your initial investment, I’m talking about spreading the total cost out over the time you own your home.
The location factor:
Real estate is hyperlocal. There is no one size fits all real estate locales, individual buyers or individual sellers. Some areas of the Seattle- eastside real estate market will remain stronger than others. Within each city on the Eastside, Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, it will vary. The East of Market neighborhood in Kirkland may be vastly different than Kirkland’s Rose Hill real estate market. We see that today with a difference in real estate sales performance in different areas on Seattle’s eastside. So no one should make a “one size fits all” about the real estate market. It will depend on how hot the area is, how many homes are on the market, and how hot the house may be. ( The Queen Anne neighborhood in Seattle seems to remain hot through most real estate markets, as an example.)
Some neighborhoods will be full of homes for sale and the homes in these areas will need to be priced more competitively. Other areas will have fewer homes to buy. These areas will have stiff competition among the sellers to grab the buyers. Buyers will be looking harder at the overall value each home brings them.
The home factor:
In every real estate market, you’ll find fabulous homes. These homes will be perfect, priced right, and terrific values. Homes that shine will be the ones to sell in any market.
The emotional factor…
For most people, it’s a huge personal decision when to buy and what home to buy. If you find a great house and are able to get it for a reasonable price for the real estate market at the time, it may make sense to you to buy. There are the financial aspects of buying a home and the emotional aspects. You might find the home you can’t live without and it’ll be worth it to you to buy now rather later. You may not find a home now and miss using the home buyer tax credit, but you may not want to buy a home now just to get the tax credit.
There are going to be great homes now and in the future. There are also going to be great deals now and in the future. The difference in today’s market is you’re dealing with a known quantity. You have to decide what works for you.
What do you think will happen with the Seattle-eastside real estate market later this year?
Is The Seattle Eastside Home Sales Race Soon to Be On?
Everyone who has wanted to sell on Seattle’s eastside in the last few years seems wants to sell in the next 60 days, including me.
I know some home sellers Angie Bondurant, my business partner, and I will be representing have been madly getting their homes ready to sell. I bet contractors on Seattle’s eastside are busier than they’ve been in a long time. The contractor I use has gone from working on a rental home I plan to sell to a client’s home. As home seller wanna-bes, we’re all in the same boat, scrambling to meet the looming deadline of April 30th. We’re hoping to catch that home buyer who wants to get the benefit of the 2010 home buyer tax credit. (By the way, I don’t think the market will fall apart after April 30th, 2010, but those thoughts will be for another post)
Right now, the number of homes and condos for sale in King County is doing it’s normal spring time creep up (yes, it’s spring here in Seattle). So far, the number of properties for sale isn’t unusually high.
- King County, WA Real Estate For Sale, 3-2-10
In some of the Seattle-eastside neighborhoods where I’ve sold a lot of homes and which I blog about, I’ve talked about the fact that there are fewer homes on the market. I think that may be changing and I am wondering if others are experiencing the same thing.
Are other Realtors seeing the same thing happening with their business?
Do you have more homes coming up for sale in the next 60 days?
Do you expect to sell more homes or condos in the next 60 days because of the tax credit?
Are home owners seeing more “For Sale” signs popping up in their neighborhoods?
How Did January, 2010 Home Sales Stack Up in Your Seattle-Eastside Neighborhood?
[googlemaps http://maps.google.com/maps?source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Seattle-eastside&sll=47.709762,-122.011414&sspn=0.310487,0.911865&ie=UTF8&split=1&radius=21.22&rq=1&ev=zo&hq=Seattle-eastside&hnear=&ll=47.709762,-122.011414&spn=0.310487,0.911865&t=h&output=embed&w=425&h=350]
How did January, 2009 stack up to January, 2010 in your neighborhood?
(Click on the cities below to see real estate trends for the past 5 years. You’ll find the median pricing for each city and whether the number of homes for sale and the number of sales went up or down. The odds of selling a home in each area is a result of the number of homes for sale divided by the actual number of home sales.)
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, and Fall City
The odds of selling a home were 21%.
Median sales price dropped from $535,000 to $499,000.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 24% and sales were up by 60% from last year.
The odds of selling a home were 28%.
Median sales price dropped from $480,000 to $450,000.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 22% and sales were up by 103%.
The odds of selling a home were 27%.
Median price stayed the same at $559,000.
The number of homes for sale dropped by 27% and sales were up 84%.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall/North Kirkland
The odds of selling a home were 18.5%.
Median price decreased to $389,725 from $438,200.
The number of homes for sale declined by 21% and sales were up by 63%.
The odds of selling a home were 23%.
Median price dropped from $512,440 to $499,950.
The number of homes for sale declined by 21% and sales were up by 90.5%.
The odds of selling a home were 12%.
Median pricing was down from $1,027,500 to $899,000.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 32.5% and sales increased by 35%.
Redmond/Education Hill/ Carnation
The odds of selling a home were 21%
Median pricing increased to $524,990 from $484,950.
The number of homes for sale decreased by 21.5% and sales increased by 73%.
Median home prices in January, 2010 increased only in one Seattle-Eastside area, Redmond, when comparing 1-09 to 1-10. If you look at the full year, prices in that area did not increase. South Bellevue and Issaquah home prices remained steady when compared January, 2009.
All other eastside areas showed a decline in pricing. The most significant decrease was in West Bellevue, where median home values dropped by almost a third. Sales in West Bellevue continued to increase from last year, although the increase was lower than what was seen in December, ’09.
Redmond, near Microsoft, and East Bellevue are booming with home sales once again, after a couple of slow months. But again, the statistics do not show prices up in this area, although home sales certainly are up!
With the extension of the home buyer tax credit, smaller numbers of homes for sale, low interest rates, real estate activity should be brisk in the first part of the year. For these reasons, if you want to sell your home and move in 2010, do it now, rather than later in 2010.
A Great Picture of Seattle Real Estate in January, 2010
King and Snohomish County Real Estate 1-31-10
There’s a “normal” real estate market in the Seattle area. What’s a normal real estate market? It’s a real estate market in which the market is evenly balanced between both buyers and sellers, which is a good thing.
Much like December, Seattle in January was “yellow,” on the map. “Yellow” means it would take 3-6 months to sell all of the available homes if no other homes come on the market. This is a good balance of homes for sale. Prices are still down and fewer homes are on the market than most of 2009, but more homes are selling.
Since it’s a normal real estate market, the best homes will “pop,” selling quickly while the overpriced homes will sit on the market through a price reduction or two before they sell or not sell at all. Some homes have sold in less than a week because they are great ones that are priced right and shine above the competition.
I’m seeing the extension of the 2010 home buyer credit continue to do its job of jump starting real estate sales. The first part of 2010 should be pretty active for both home buyers and sellers. After April 30th when the home buyer tax credit goes away, much will depend on how many homes are on the market and the interest rates.
What do the numbers on the map mean?
The map is divided into the numbered areas as defined by our Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Downtown Bellevue is area 520 and East Bellevue is area 530, as an example.
What do the colors mean?
Red means it’s a sellers’ market, a sellers’ advantage.
Yellow means a balanced market between buyers and sellers.
Green means its a buyers’ market.
If you take each area as shown on the map and look to the area number on the side of the map, it will tell you how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale if no other home came up on the market in that area.
What Were The Odds of Selling Your Seattle-Eastside Home in January, 2010?
Seattle-Eastside Real Estate, January, 2010
The odds of selling a home on the Eastside in January, 2010 ranged from a low of 12% to a high of 28%, with an average 21% absorption rate. (The absorption rate is the number of homes for sale in any given month divided by the actual number of homes sold that month.)
January, 2010 2588 homes for sale, 539 homes sold, 27% odds of selling.
December, 2009 2584 homes for sale, 419(now 358) homes sold 16%(Now 14%) odds of selling.*
January, 2009, 3144 homes for sale 248 homes sold 9% odds of selling.
*Adjusted from previous month’s numbers to reflect the actual number of homes sold and closed. Each month some sales fall apart and don’t close. A lower number of home sales may be reported at a later date to show the actual number of sales that did close. (see explanation below)
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January, 2009 Seattle-Eastside real estate market compared to January, 2010:
- Home sales were up in all Seattle-Eastside cities.
- The number of homes for sale dropped to the lowest number since February, 2007.
- The median price was down by 1.8%. (Keep in mind this is comparing last January’s numbers to this January and is not an indication of the total drop in price for the year.)
- Home sales on Seattle’s Eastside: up 76%!
- Number of homes for sale on Seattle’s Eastside: down 27%
Best odds of selling: Redmond, near Microsoft, and East Bellevue are back on top as the areas with the greatest odds of selling. Twenty eight percent of the homes got offers. Last month the area had the worst odds on the eastside.
Worst odds of selling: West Bellevue with only 12% of the homes getting accepted offers.
Biggest increase in sales from last year: Redmond, near Microsoft, and East Bellevue with 103% increase in the number of home sales from last year.
Smallest increase in sales from last year: West Bellevue, with a 35% increase in home sales over last year.
Decline in real estate sales from last year: None on the eastside.
The peak of homes for sale in 2008: July, 4370 homes.
The peak of homes for sale in 2009: June, 3859 homes.
The number of eastside homes for sale at the start of 2010: 2584 homes
The number of eastside homes for sale now: 2588 homes.
Rate of home sales that failed: 15%
Why home sales fail to close:
- This can be the result of inspections in which buyers and sellers do not agree, an appraisal that does not justify the sales price, lenders who do not package the loan properly or the great number of short sales that are out there.
- Short sales are sales in which the selling price for a property is less than the price owed to the bank, so the seller is “short.” Many of these offers do not stay together because it often takes months for a short sale to get approved by the bank. There’s no guarantee the bank will accept an offer. I’ve heard only 4% of the short sales actually close in King County. Since there’s a huge number on the market, if you’re someone willing to take a chance and accept that your offer may never be looked at or accepted, then a short sale may be a way to go. With the extension of the home buyer tax credit, home buyers have more time to go after short sales. However, months may still be needed to get the short sale closed, if it is to close at all. Since most buyers truly want to purchase a home and close on it, I would recommend NOT making offers on short sales. I’d also recommend reading as much as you can about short sales before attempting to make an offer on a short sale. This way you’ll be prepared if you choose to go the route of a short sale.
Predictions for 2010 Seattle Real Estate From Local Economist
The first part of 2010 is going to be the best part of the year for Seattle area real estate.
This was the message over 2000 Windermere Real Estate agents heard at last week’s kick off meeting held at Seattle’s Benaroya Hall. The good news, according to economist Matthew Gardner, is “the recession is behind us.” However, the last 6 months of 2010 are “murky,” said Gardner.
Here are some highlights from his talk:
- Home sales skyrocketed by 25% in the fourth quarter of 2009.
- There was some stability in home pricing in late 2009.
- The stimulus package has not been as effective as hoped.
- Jobs will be a prime concern.
- Banks need to start lending again.
- Rates should be about 6% later this year.
- Foreclosures will still be a concern.
- Boeing’s move of the Dreamliner and layoffs at Microsoft will not have a huge affect on the economy.
- Seattle unemployment to peak at 9.5%
- Seattle was late to the recession and is later on recovery.
- Prices and sales will continue to improve in the first half of 2010.
But as Mr. Gardner said, the rest of the year looks murky. With changes in FHA guidelines, projected increases in interest rates, and costly jumbo loans, the latter half of 2010 is not clear.
Given the information available to us now, I think Matthew Gardner is right. I’ve been recommending to potential home sellers to make a move early this year, since the latter half of the year is so unclear. We may be doing just fine with our economy and with real estate, but no one knows where we will be once the second half of 201o begins. Our crystal balls are a bit “murky,” as Mr. Gardner said.
What do you think about his predictions for 2010 Seattle real estate? What are your predictions for 2010 and beyond? Of course, when 2012 arrives, we only have to worry about surviving, never mind real estate or the economy!
